Friday, July 3 2015 05:29

What are the major problems in the Armenian-Russian relations at the moment?

Amid the lack of discussions on real problems that do require solutions the excessive political declarations, slogans and toasts to friendship appear to be the main problem in the Armenian- Russian relations. It is our common problem, the result of joint business projects that fuel the prosperity of some individuals and small social groups. However, this also has a negative impact on the social condition of Armenian citizens. This has been demonstrated by the case of the "Electric Networks of Armenia". Armenia generates excessive amount of energy, however, Armenian citizens pay the highest energy rate in the CIS.  I think Russia too suffers from this "efficient management". It is quite normal that the Armenians who cooperate both with Russia and western countries compare their managements. As a matter of fact the comparison is not in Russia's favor.  However, the biggest part of the Armenian population considers the Russian direction as a preferred one. However, the abovementioned problems are solved only when the situation is no longer bearable. This is conditioned by numerous problems, which are simply to be guessed.

In view of some reasons that are considered intrinsic even in Armenia, Russia consistently tries to enhance its relationships with Azerbaijan and Turkey. This arouses quite intrinsic concern in Armenia. Don’t you think it one of the key problems of the Armenian-Russian relations?

Russia will always have a dialogue with Azerbaijan this or other way, as Azerbaijan is an important partner and has a common border with Russia. Much depends on that country when it comes to maintenance of stability in the North Caucasus. Of course, the Azerbaijani-Russian cooperation is deepening and the parties do not conceal that. It is another matter that Azerbaijan will hardly enter any long-term strategic alliances. It will try to keep the balance between its relations with Russia and the West and Turkey. I think the talks on the strategic triangle Moscow-Ankara-Baku bear no relations to reality.  First, there is quite uncertain situation around the Turkish Stream – top officials at Gazprom also accept that uncertainty. The situation around Karabakh is quite clear. Everything comes to a fact that in neither political nor geopolitical terms Russia can manage the destiny of an

area that does not belong to it. An area, that has already made its choice, is managing to find resources to defend it in close cooperation with Armenia, of course. I don’t think that there will ever be a power to force Karabakh people to change their way.

Do you mean that Karabakh is a red line for Russia in its relations with Armenia?

Nagorno-Karabakh is definitely a red line in Russia's relations with Armenia. The security assurance of the Armenian-Russian relations refers to Karabakh, too. In this light the US200-million loan for Armenia to purchase armament is quite eloquent. Russia is obvious to maintain the force balance, which is the main assurance in respect of preventing the resumption of the active phase of Karabakh conflict.

In case of desire, the authorities could comparatively easy disperse the protesters blocking the Baghramyan Avenue in daytime hours, when there were not large groups of people there. Yet, they have not done it, though 10 days have passed since the beginning of the protests. It is widely rumored that the authorities use the protests in their favor. Do you agree with these views?

Various powers are surely trying to make use of the Armenian protest against the energy price hike. However, the scenario of domestic tinting is also possible given that the matter here is about the events in the center of the Armenian capital city. The authorities are not dispersing the rally because of what they call lack of aggression. Yet, the blocked avenue in the city center causes lots of inconvenience.

 

In this light, I think, there are various reasons why the Armenian authorities are refraining from drastic measures. However, both the authorities and protesters should keep the situation under control and not push things too far like it happened on June 29. On that day some other powers tried to get the control over the situation for other purposes. Now, the authorities are controlling the situation, though the protests on the blocked avenue will continue for a while.

Nevertheless, do you see any hidden threat of Maidan in Armenia?

 Даже если мы предположим, что содержит, то тут очень важно не заиграться в подобные тонкие игры. Подхватывая брошенную вами рабочую гипотезу, отмечу, что даже если такие элементы сценарного планирования присутствуют, наверное, мы сможем найти им соответствующие доказательства. Мы видим, что нынешний протест в отличие от организованных “Армянским национальным конгрессом” и “Процветающей Арменией” протестов в октябре прошлого года, социальный. Однако, учитывая, что он происходит в центре Еревана, за ним, безусловно, наблюдают самые разные силы как извне, так и изнутри власти. Иначе просто не может быть. И если кто-то думает, что таким образом можно продемонстрировать наличие в Армении майданных предпосылок, им очень важно не переходить определенную грань.

Even if we surmise some slight threat of Maidan, it matters not to get into the moment of such a subtle game.  If there are such scenario elements we will probably find relevant proofs. Unlike the last year’s rallies organized by the Armenian National Congress and Prosperous Armenia Party, this one is of social character. However, given that it is taking place in the center of Yerevan, it is obvious that various both external and domestic powers are keeping an eye on it.  If some forces think that this is the way to demonstrate preconditions for Maidan-like revolution in Armenia, they should not push things too far. 

It is difficult to understand the reasons why some Russian journalists and experts in their assessments of the situation in Armenia speak of the threat of Maidan.

I’d like to say that in Russia there are other assessments too. However, the flag of the European Union in the hands of the protesters and their attitude to the Russian journalists covering the protests were negatively perceived in Russia. Yet, some people in both Russia and Armenia really tried to sow discord between the two countries.  Besides, some Russian political analysts have a conditioned reflex to the word Maidan. In Armenia they know about it. That is why it is very important to look deep into the situation and try to prevent the conditions that are theoretically able to lead to such kind of processes.  The problem is not just the electricity prices. In Armenia the situation with the gas rate is not better.

Do you see the right decision to settle this complicate situation within the interests of both Russia and the population of Armenia, which was driven to desperation by the “efficient management” of the Russian and Armenian officials?

First and foremost, all the projects of big Russian companies in Armenia need a solid information support, so that all the shortcomings are revealed and corrected timely. It is obvious that the constant price hikes irritate the people in Armenia, like it would irritate the residents of any country, including Russia. Some things can be corrected with certain organizational and raw-material resources. However, it is not done for some unknown reasons, maybe because Russia’s many political and economic resources are used in other directions, for instance in Ukraine, Central Asia and even in Europe, given the uneasy situation caused by the West’s sanctions against Russia. Nevertheless, Armenia  - a member of the Eurasian Economic Union and Russia’s ally – does not enjoy the preferences Russia provides to other CIS countries and even to Ukraine.

Even in the war-torn Ukraine, the gas rate is much lower than in Armenia, isn’t it? 

In Ukraine not only gas and electricity prices are lower than in Armenia. I think, it is necessary to speak about that abnormal situation.  If Russia is forming an integration project, in this case it is the EEU, the citizens of the signatory-countries should feel the benefits of that project. We are trying to cover these issues in our media resources with hope that our expert discussions will influence Russia’s policy toward Armenia.