Thursday, February 19 2015 06:27

Some analysts believe that the internal political
conflict in Armenia is part
of the global confrontation between Russia and the West. Do you share
their opinion?

The
confrontation has become vivid in the political field after the Armenian
President's unprecedentedly harsh speech targeted against Prosperous Armenia
Party (PAP) leader. The latter underwent criticism, insults and humiliations,
regardless of biased assessments of his political figure. Like in the countries
with a hybrid political regime, all this is generally followed by loss of other
statuses, too.

The first time the Republicans
mentioned constitutional reforms was last spring...

Yes,
but in reality this process started in September 2013 after the second victory
of Serzh Sargsyan at the presidential elections. Though the results of the
second elections allowed Sargsyan to get rid of the reputation of just Robert
Kocharyan's successor, the elections did not become his triumph. 36.74% of
Heritage Party leader Raffi Hovannisian's votes demonstrated the tangible
public discontent with the authorities. Therefore, from the very first day
Sargsyan started strengthening his positions in the 2017-2018 electoral cycle.
The constitutional reform concept that emerged in October 2014 and implied Armenia's
switch to a parliamentary regime is the key element of these plans. Naturally,
the "reformers" did not care for the favorable influence of the
parliamentary regime and European values on the public and political culture in
the republic. The formal redistribution of the powers is the best way to
prolong the existence of the current pro-power elite. As for Gagik Tsarukyan,
he has become a fly in the ointment of the RPA.

Does the visit of Victoria Nuland to Armenia have anything to do with
the internal political tensions in the country?

I
think the latest meeting of Gagik Tsarukyan, Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Raffi
Hovannisian would never become the focus of such attention unless the upcoming
visit of the Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs to Yerevan. The growth of
anti-American sentiments in Russia
allows perceiving the current situation in Armenia
as a preface of a new "color revolution" with possible defeat of Russia or at least attempts to minimize Russia's influence in Armenia. In fact, today the West
considers Russia
as a country whose interests can be neglected. Washington,
for instance, dislikes the Russian dominancy in Armenia,
particularly, Yerevan's
refusal to initial the AA/DCFTA with the EU. 
Nevertheless, one should not restrict the confrontation in Armenia to the
pro-Russian power-anti-Russian opposition format. Gagik Tsarukyan has been one
of the close teammates of Robert Kocharyan for many years. But it is hard to
consider Kocharyan a pro-Western politician, especially following the 1 March
2008 bloody events.

Yes, but there are also Levon Ter-Petrosyan and Raffi Hovhannisian...

Even
today many in Russia
suspect Levon Ter-Petrosyan of immanent sympathies for the West. In fact, the
situation is not so simple as it seems to be, because almost the whole basis of
the current Russian military presence in Armenia was laid in the 1990s
during his term in office. As regards Heritage leader Raffi Hovannisian, his
stand really looks pro-Western. On the other hand, Heritage's radical demands
concerning Armenia's
recognition of the Nagorno-Karabakh
Republic's independence
completely destroys the short-circuit logic of perceiving the opposition as a
force ready for unreasonable high concessions. This speaks volumes.

In other words, do you think that it
is wrong to associate the protests against the ruling regime in Armenia with the externally inspired protests
against Russia’s interests
in the South Caucasus?

Luckily there are no signs that the
current public protests may grow into anti-Russian moods. But if Russia fails to shortly find efficient operators
for pushing its interests in Armenia,
it may face growing anti-Russian moods. So, the key goal of our policy in Armenia now is
to prevent fusion of public protests with anti-Russian moods. We must be more
balanced in our policy and must rely on the contacts of Russian businessmen
with Robert Kocharyan, Gagik Tsarukyan and other Armenian politicians.

Do you see any link between the
internal political tensions in Armenia
and the Armenian President’s decision to withdraw the Armenian-Turkish protocols
from the agenda of the Armenian Parliament?

Such
a link is well backed taking into consideration an extremely hard domestic
political background of Sargsyan's statement. I should say, that besides the
"main troublemaker" Gagik Tsarukyan, Serzh Sargsyan has got other
opponents too which are extremely displeased with the ways and results of his
ruling Armenia.

Many
people have taken it like a challenge. But actually, Sargsyan has simply
formalized the true state of normalizing of the Armenian-Turkish relations for
all the post-Zurich years. Just the parliamentary ratification has become a
barrier which neither Ankara nor Yerevan could overcome. Armenia did not manage to separate the Karabakh
settlement process from establishing relations with Turkey. For its part, Ankara using the factor of isolation and regional
closeness of Armenia, did
not manage to force Yerevan
to adaptableness.

Sargsyan's recent step does not at all
mean that both countries will never return to normalization of relations. The
geo-political isolation of Armenia
is an impartial reason for finding the ways on normalization of relations with Turkey. The
latter is not so much popular in the Middle East.
For this reason, Turkey
is still concerned about improvement of relations with the European Union,
which is rather problematic without the pragmatics at the Armenian direction.

Was the forthcoming Centennial of the Armenian Genocide a catalyst for
this decision?

Against
such a background, not only in Armenia
but in Turkey
as well, it is necessary to any leader simply to demonstrate his commitment to
the historical memory. Serzh Sargsyan is not an exception, especially if we
take into consideration that if he did not do that, his numerous opponents
would remind him of that for many times.