Wednesday, April 29 2015 09:22

Mr. Satanovsky, Putin’s recent visit to Yerevan to attend the Armenian Genocide Centennial events has angered Ankara. How strident can be the rhetoric of Erdogan’s Turkey?

I don’t think Erdogan’s strident rhetoric against Russia over Putin’s visit to Armenia will have any negative consequences. We could see that on the example of Vatican, when Pope Francis made a statement of the Armenian Genocide on April 12. There was a wave of criticism from Turkey. Edrogan recalled the ambassador and will send him back after a while.  The same can be expected in the relations of Ankara and Russia.

After all, hot air is one thing, while actions that will result in irreversible changes dangerous for Turkey is another thing. Deterioration of the relations with Russia is not in favor of Turkey. Having strong ties with Russia, especially in the energy sector, Ankara will not prejudice its economic interests. Turkey will not terminate its projects with Russia and will not refuse from the construction of the NPP to be built by Rosatom.

Nevertheless, there is still competition between Moscow and Ankara, particularly, in the Caucasus…

Sure, Ankara’s neo-Ottoman ambitions should not be neglected. Turkey actively promotes its interests in the Caucasus, in a range of Russia’s regions, in Central Asia.  These interests are promoted on the basis of the principle Turkey is the senior brother of the Turkic peoples, in full compliance with the concept of Neo-Ottomanism. This runs contrary not only to Russia’s interests, but also to the interests of the above regions’ governments.

What about Ankara’s actions in the Middle East? The Islamic State militants are known to enjoy Turkey’s support, aren’t they?

Turkey is in active contacts with the Islamic State through its special services. Ankara has strong contacts and seeks to secure its territory, on the one hand, and redirect the Islamists to the objects important to Turkey, on the other hand, like it was with the Syrian Kurdistan, for instance. The militants of Kurdistan Workers' Party occupy extremely strong positions in the territory of the Syrian Kurdistan. For Turkey it is very dangerous. Feeling the potential threat, Ankara gave a free hand to the Islamic State during the siege of Kobani and other Kurdish towns and villages in that region.

 

Contacts of Turks and IS militants are obvious at least because after the seizure of Mosul ( Iraq ) many foreigners, including citizens of Turkey, found themselves in the hands of the militants. The Turks were set free promptly, after some talks. Those talks were held between the Turkey's national intelligence service MIT and the IS special services.

 

The situation in the Middle East is rather complicate now, there is trench "horning" between the IS and its adversaries. There are no active military actions against the militants yet. Even the widely publicized attack on Mosul has been postponed till the end of Ramadan i.e. for a long period of time.  One can endlessly speak of the United States' 'huge role' in the fight against IS, but it is clear that several targeted attacks on the oil deposits under control of the Islamic State cannot have any serious influence on the situation.

What do you think of Russia’s decision to lift the arms embargo on Iran? Was it a surprise for the U.S. and Israel?

Both the USA and Israel were surprised by the delivery of S-300 missiles to Iran. Putin is a person full of surprises and he likes playing with forecasts. Putin knew if sanctions were lifted there would be a huge queue of weapon dealers. The Russian president signed the removal of delivery ban proceeding from the assumption that he did not want to line up and struggle with Chinese and French producers.    

 

There are many unanswered questions. The modification type of C-300 is still unclear. The modern modifications can destroy not only planes, but also cruising missiles. The price and delivery period are different in this case. It is possible to overcome this, but it will be costly and tough. In case of deliveries attacking IRI nuclear sites will be more difficult.

Russia supplies weapons also to Azerbaijan, which arouses criticism in Armenia. What motivates Russia to do it? What will Moscow do if one day Baku uses the weapons it supplies? 

I think Russia will take a neutral stand in case the military action in the Karabakh conflict zone resume. Armenia is concerned over delivery of Russian weapons to Azerbaijan, while Israel is concerned over possible delivery of S-300 systems to Iran. Sadly, it’s a business.