Friday, May 22 2015 15:07

The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific(UNESCAP or ESCAP), one of the five regional commissions of the United Nations Economic and Social Council, under the administrative direction of the United Nations headquarters, made an outlook on the economic growth of the region's countries. 

According to the report, entitled "Making Growth More Inclusive for Sustainable Development" Armenia's economic growth will make 0.9% in 2015, while the inflation will make 4.7% growth. Economic growth slowed slightly to 3.4% in 2014 from 3.5% in 2013, well below the double-digit growth rates recorded before the start of the global financial crisis in 2008. The mining sector contracted owing to the downward trend of metal commodity prices. Agricultural growth was also sluggish, while the contribution of the construction sector to GDP growth remained negative. Similarly, the contribution of household spending to overall growth decreased due to rising joblessness, a 7% contraction in remittance inflows and a smaller increase in nominal wages. Private consumption was weak despite lower inflation, at 3% in 2014, as the impact of the gas price hike in 2013 started to diminish. The unemployment rate stayed above 15%, while available data on the unemployment trend and job vacancies pointed to a notable mismatch between labour demand and supply. Growth is projected to soften further to 0.9% in 2015, before rebounding to 2.3% in 2016. The outlook for 2015 is weighed down by likely slower growth in workers' remittances, which account for up to 13% of GDP, and lower private consumption

To remind, a number of International financial bodies have damped their forecasts on the Armenian economic growth in 2015: EBRD damped its forecast on Armenia's GDP growth in 2015 dropping it from 3.5% to 0 and only after to -1.5%; EDP forecasts a 3.8% GDP growth, IMF - -1% with inflation growth up to 6.4%, ADP- 1.6% GDP growth, American rating agencies have their own estimations: Fitch forecasts moderate recession because of the situation deterioration in Russia, while Moody Agency forecasts a 2.3% growth. The RA Central Bank estimates the country's 2015 economic growth 0.4- 2% rolling back the previous 3.2-3.5% indicators.

According to the data of National Statistical Service of Armenia, in Jan-Apr 2015 economic activity in Armenia rose by 2.7% (by 3.4% in April alone). The biggest growth versus Jan-Apr 2014 and versus March 2015 was registered in agriculture - 4.8% and 46.6%, respectively. In Jan-Apr 2015 inflation made up 1.9% (5% annual inflation), with 0.4% deflation registered in April 2015. In 2014, GDP grew by 3.4% (versus 3.5% increase in 2013)