Tuesday, April 23 2024 12:36

ArmInfo. The rapprochement between Baku and Moscow is already a recorded fact, but the extent of  the same anti-Westernism and pro-Soviet nostalgia between the parties is different, as well as the motivations for building value lines. This is how political scientist Sergei Markedonov commented on the working visit of Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev to the Russian Federation.

The expert stated that Aliyev flew to Moscow on the birthday of the  "leader of the world proletariat." At first glance, an ordinary  diplomatic routine; All the kind words appropriate for such cases  were spoken, positive assessments were voiced. However, there are  several considerations that allow us to talk about this trip as an  event more significant than just a meeting of two presidents," he  noted.

At the same time, the political scientist noted that Aliyev's visit  is taking place against the backdrop of a sharp cooling in relations  between Russia and Armenia. And, on the contrary, the  "Westernization" of Yerevan's foreign policy is moving forward by  leaps and bounds.

"In the language of social networks, "everything is complicated" in  Georgia's external borders and even inside. At the same time,  Turkey's positions are being strengthened, and the Russian  peacekeeping contingent is leaving Karabakh ahead of schedule,  leaving behind conflicting emotions and assessments not only among  Caucasian players, but also among neighboring powers and the  countries of the adjacent Eurasian regions,"  Markedonov continued.

According to the expert, Russian-Azerbaijani relations developed in  complex and contradictory ways in 1991-2024. "At first, Baku,  probably even more than Tbilisi, looked like Moscow's most  problematic partner in the Transcaucasus. Then the situation began to  change. Since 2008, the term "strategic partnership"  has come into  circulation, which was nevertheless considered in comparison to the  "strategic alliance" with Armenia. In February 2022, the Russian  Federation and Azerbaijan agreed on "allied cooperation." Formally,  the levels of relations between the two Caucasian states and Russia  have leveled off. But does reality always correspond to formal  statuses? Over the past few years, relations between Moscow and Baku  have been going uphill, while relations between Moscow and Yerevan  have been going downhill. It's just an observation of fact, without  assessments in the "good-bad" format," the expert noted.

Regarding what strengthens the closeness of the positions of Baku and  Moscow, Markedonov expressed the conviction that today, perhaps, this  is rejection of the West, coupled with a value dimension.  "It was  not for nothing that the topic of BAM's anniversary was raised at the  meeting between Putin and Aliyev . Since pro-Soviet nostalgia has  become an integral part of today's Russian value space, a deja vu  effect arises. In the last years of the existence of the USSR, the  AzSSR enjoyed the support of the conservative part of the party-state  establishment, while the "anti-Soviet-democratic "Armenia and  Karabakh were highly respected by "systemic" and non-systemic  "reformers" of varying calibers and varying degrees of radicalism.

But are the abovementioned conditions enough for a strong alliance? I  would like to be an optimist, but my expert conscience does not allow  me to indulge in "dizziness from success." After all, in addition to  the elite, Azerbaijan has society (especially its youth segment) and  social networks," the political scientist is confident. According to  him, first, they should be carefully studied in order to understand,  to put it mildly, the ambiguous perception of Russia and its policies  in the Caucasus!

Markedonov does not consider it unimportant, reminding that earlier  someone said such things about the importance of Armenia as well;  these are just 'talkers' and 'scribblers'! But today one of these  "scribblers" is making a turn in foreign policy in the course of his  country.

"Add to this the factor of Turkey, which has its own importance, and  not all Turkish interests coincide with Russian ones. But the level  of strategic coordination between Baku and Ankara (let's also add  Ankara- Washington and Brussels) is such that it does not allow  Russia to get overjoyed. Let's not forget about the Iran factor, as  well as Tehran's concerns about the strengthening of "pan-Turkism" in  the region and, of course, the "Ukrainian issue," which previously  did not bring Moscow and Baku much closer.

"Author, don't make me sad," my potential critic will say. Pessimism,  of course, is not our method. But sober assessments without inflated  expectations and with an understanding of possible problem areas are  more important than honeyed and sugary delights. The rapprochement of  Baku and Moscow is already a recorded fact. And any friendship is  better than enmity and misunderstanding, no matter who argues. But  the volume of the same anti-Westernism and pro-Soviet nostalgia is  different among us, as are the motives for building value lines. It's  worth understanding such things "on shore," before setting off on a  long voyage," the Russian political scientist summed up.