ArmInfo. The military operation marked the "formal end" of the Armenian-majority region of Nagorno-Karabakh, a territorial entity that had existed under that name since 1923 and for centuries under other names. Thomas de Waal, scholar and writer, Senior Fellow at Carnegie Europe, the author of the famous book about the Karabakh conflict: "Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War", stated at a special PACE Hearing on the human rights and humanitarian situation of Karabakh Armenians and the international obligations of Azerbaijan.
As the specialist noted, September 19th military assault by Azerbaijan on Nagorno-Karabakh resulted in several hundred deaths including civilians. This is a human tragedy, a tragedy of more than 100,000 people, since almost the entire Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh fled to Armenia.
According to Thomas de Waal, the Karabakh conflict is very complex, with many phases and turns. And for decades, it was force, not diplomacy, that determined the outcomes "on the ground". Over the years, many questions have arisen - both Armenians and Azerbaijanis engaged in what can be described as ethnic cleansing. Recent events are also a blow to the prospects for peace in the South Caucasus.
The specialist emphasized that this could have been avoided, as active diplomatic efforts were made. Since December 2021, the West has pursued an active diplomatic mediation process chaired by Charles Michel, which has demanded greater input from all sides, particularly from Azerbaijan, in parallel with negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan mediated by Moscow.
In recent weeks, a dialogue has begun between the Armenians of Karabakh and representatives of Baku, even despite the actual blockade of Karabakh by Azerbaijan, which has caused "humanitarian suffering" to the population of Karabakh. This new process between the Armenians of Karabakh and Baku required time and patience. Everyone, including the Armenians of Karabakh, understood that a final settlement was possible within the framework of the territorial integrity of Azerbaijan.
So, acting in the most dominant position, President Aliyev had a choices but he chose to use force on September 19th. It also undermined Western leaders' confidence in the process and interrupted dialogue with the Armenians of Karabakh. And although a small number of civilians were injured, as a result the entire Armenian population no longer felt safe and left Karabakh.
We know that Azerbaijan's military operation was coordinated with Turkey and, although we do not know any details, we can be fairly sure that military actions were also coordinated with Russia. Russian peacekeepers were ordered to stand down in Karabakh themselves, allowing Azerbaijani forces to proceed and the media outlets were instructed to blame Armenian Prime Minister Pashinyan, rather than Azerbaijan, for the outbreak of this violence.
The UN and Moscow gave a much softer description of this military operation than the West. And now the time has come for a comprehensive reassessment of these events by organizations such as PACE. Now Azerbaijan is proposing a "reintegration agenda", according to which Armenians can return to Karabakh and become citizens of Azerbaijan, taking into account that there is no dual citizenship in Azerbaijan, and therefore renouncing Armenian citizenship. Therefore, organizations like the Council of Europe should be very careful regarding such initiatives. For example, why is this initiative being proposed after 99% of the Armenians of Karabakh have already left their land. This initiative should be considered within the broader framework of Azerbaijan's international obligations.
In this context, three broader issues need to be addressed:
The first one concerns the general condition of minorities in Azerbaijan. None of Azerbaijan's minorities have any special rights or autonomy. The language of the two main minorities - Talysh and Lezgin - iare taught to 28,000 children in schools, according to Azerbaijani data for 2022. According to the Committee of the Framework Convention for the Protection of National Minorities of 2017, national minorities are under pressure in the context of demonstrating loyalty to the state. Also, national minorities do not have the opportunity to fully express themselves in the public sector. In this context, it is difficult to imagine the integration of Armenians into Azerbaijani society.
The second point is, as the many independent reports have confirmed, the Azerbaijani education system teaches children strongly negative hatred towards Armenians as vandals and occupiers who committed genocide against Azerbaijanis in the 1990s. It should be noted that the Armenian education system does the same thing, just not as actively. Therefore, without comprehensive reforms in the national rhetoric (education system, political discourse and media) of Azerbaijan, it is difficult to imagine a quiet life for Armenians in Azerbaijan.
Thirdly, any such initiative requires careful study by the international community, since Azerbaijan's record on this matter is very poor. Despite many calls to Azerbaijan from the international community for its representatives to visit Nagorno-Karabakh, all of them were rejected by Azerbaijan. As a result, Nagorno- Karabakh remained completely isolated, with only the ICRC on the ground. It is known that the Parliamentary Assembly also called for a fact-finding mission to be sent to Nagorno-Karabakh during the blockade in June, but Azerbaijan rejected this call as well.
Thomas de Waal also spoke about the danger that threatens the Armenian cultural heritage, mentioning the fact of the destruction and complete liquidation of the rich and historically important medieval cemetery in Julfa (Nakhichevan).
Azerbaijan, he said, also had a choice: a strong Armenia with normalization of relations with Turkey and less dependence on Russia, or a weak Armenia forced to rely more on Russia. Unfortunately, Azerbaijan has opted for the second option. And this is not accidental, since in this context the specialist mentioned Baku's claims to the so-called on the territory of Armenia and on the so-called . Thomas de Waal also recalled Baku's claims to the territory of Armenia in the context of the rhetoric about the so-called .