Tuesday, July 25 2023 19:53

ArmInfo.The human cost of ignoring the seeds of instability is a matter of  political and moral consequence for broader international peace.    For an uninformed casual news consumer, guarantees of security and rights for the  people of Artsakh within the jurisdiction of Azerbaijan may sound  perfectly normal. This is stated in an article by former Minister of  Foreign Affairs of Armenia Zohrab Mnatsakanyan in the EVN Report.

 In the article, he noted, in particular: "In the wake of the seventh  months of total blockade and aggravating humanitarian catastrophe in  Artsakh the offer to use the Aghdam route through Azerbaijan may  equally appear as a fair deal to alleviate the suffering. That is for  an uninformed casual consumer of news. One can hardly assume that  officials of the European Union or the U.S.  State Department qualify  it as such. One might assume also, that for this category, the  informed officials, achieving stability in the region at any cost  dominates the calculus. Such a calculus is erroneous. Genuine and  sustainable stability in the region is illusory if one assumes this  can be achieved at the expense of one of the regional stakeholders,  the people of Artsakh. Ignoring the obvious political, moral and  legal realities in addressing the plight of Artsakh is tantamount to  watering the seeds of further instability with proliferating effects. 

From the outset, Azerbaijan has been quite explicit about its views  and intentions on the destiny of Armenians within the jurisdiction of  Azerbaijan, both in words and in actions. The institutionalized  ethnic hatred towards Armenians in general, and in Artsakh in  particular, has for a long time been weaponized by the dynastic  dictatorship in Baku. As the "convenient enemies" the Armenians are a  useful deflector of internal troubles endangering the survival of the  regime and justifying domestic repressions and abuses of the  deep-rooted dictatorial tradition in Azerbaijan. 

Taking cue from their victory in 2020, Baku vehemently denies the  reality of Artsakh as a political entity, capable of self-government  and democratic representation of its population. They attempt to  persuade the world that historically, politically, legally there is  no such thing as Nagorno-Karabakh. They "encourage" the Armenians in  Artsakh to use a one way ticket out of their homes. They announce  programs to populate Artsakh with ethnic Azerbaijanis in numbers far  exceeding the present Armenian population of 120,000. To drive their  points home, over the past two and a half years, they openly  challenge the poor, half-hearted performance of Russia on the ground,  as the party to have assumed direct responsibility for the security  of Armenians in Artsakh. They consistently use force against Artsakh  and disrupt basic normalcy of life there. In the past seven months  this culminated with the imposition of a total blockade of Artsakh  with an ensuing humanitarian catastrophe. Literally. The use of force  and coercion is laced with demagoguery about reintegration or  regional peace and stability. The offer of the Aghdam route for  humanitarian relief in Artsakh is tantamount to an offer of a glass  water by a torturer to his victim during the actual act of torture.  It is morally degrading and demeaning human dignity, let alone  contrary to international humanitarian law.    

One does not have to be a clairvoyant to understand the consequences  of such actions by a regime with a tradition of egregious and massive  human rights violations against and dynastic domination of its own  people. One doesn't have to, but one might pretend or choose not to  notice.  The region is known for attracting global power rivalries.  Presently they have intensified. The war in Ukraine is a contributing  factor. The rivalry is predominantly political. So are considerations  of energy security and connectivity. However, will "stability" at any  cost work for any of the global rivals? This is not an unusual or  singular case in the history of global rivalries.  For example, from  1975 and for the next 30 years, President Suharto of Indonesia  learned the craft of manipulating global rivalries at the expense of  the people of East Timor. Indeed, Western democratic powers have been  predominantly preoccupied by the dangers of Soviet and Chinese  penetration in Indonesia, and therefore consistently demonstrated  total disinterest and disregard of the persistent existential threats  to the East Timorese. Eventually, out of tireless resistance,  thousands of deaths, consolidation and leadership, freedom was  forged. Timor-Leste gained independence despite the lack of support  to human rights and the right to self-determination of peoples. 

Does it have to come this far for the people of Artsakh? Does it have  to be another 30 years of plight, desperation and struggle? How badly  would the existential threat to them need to be exacerbated and how  many deaths would justify their right for freedom and life in  dignity?  Because materialization of the explicitly declared goals,  objectives and intentions of the regime in Baku consequentially lead  to forced deportations and ethnic cleansing. Those mass violations of  human rights are sources of instability in themselves. One might  choose to treat these threats as hyperbole. However, Azerbaijan has  been spectacularly failing to prove its intentions otherwise.   Violence is highly predictable, and resistance to violence should not  come as a surprise. The seeds for the persistent instability are  conspicuous. The warning signs are abundant.  As a matter of a  historical fact, no one can confidently foresee the final outcomes of  instability.  The human cost of ignoring the seeds of instability is  a matter of political and moral consequence for broader international  peace. For every informed official in the global centers of power,  the pursuit of national interest intent on sustainable regional  stability in the South Caucasus urges action on these early warning  signs of persistent instability. 

For starters, present conditions at the source of the humanitarian  catastrophe in Artsakh need to be withdrawn instantly, life in  Artsakh should return to normal. It would be na‹ve to assume that  Azerbaijan is inclined to act in good faith in this respect.  Therefore, international pressure is necessary for achieving this. 

The UN Security Council is the most effective platform for action to  demonstrate the unsustainability of coercion in dealing with Artsakh.  The Council has in its possession the necessary legal and political  leverage for this. The Permanent Five of the Council comprises states  with direct stakes in the region. In their otherwise deeply  adversarial relations, forging a common position on the humanitarian  crisis in Artsakh should bring to light a flicker of hope about  whatever remains of their common responsibility for international  peace. Armenia can in no way escape this dire situation. The ongoing  bilateral track with Azerbaijan to seek peace cannot be sustainable  if detached from the humanitarian plight of Artsakh. 

Second, the United Nations has been equipped precisely to address  humanitarian situations globally. So far, however, it has been  successfully tamed by Azerbaijan's false rhetoric and the thick  curtain of sovereignty, behind which the regime in Baku hides.  Furthermore, the Secretary- General is specifically mandated by the  UN Charter to bring to the attention of the Security Council matters  which in his opinion may threaten the maintenance of international  peace and security. Failing so far to recognize that the humanitarian  crisis in Artsakh is such a matter, and in order for him to have such  an opinion, there needs to be a UN presence on the ground. He may  seek a mandate from the Security Council to overcome the resistance  of Azerbaijan in order for the UN system to reach the ground,  alleviate suffering, gather information and report back to the  Council.  Third, a meaningful and internationally mediated  negotiating process between Artsakh as a de facto political entity,  and Azerbaijan, the agenda of which is directly addressing and not  limiting the scope of freedoms and rights of the people of Artsakh is  an inevitable priority. International mediation is paramount in order  to compensate for the inequalities of status between the parties.   Without international mediation, it will hardly qualify as a  negotiation, but would rather be an exercise of banging Azerbaijan's  ultimatums on the table. The United Nations, through a mandated  special envoy, might be considered as a practical solution for an  impartial international engagement and mitigation of global  rivalries.

Such a minimum set of measures, combined with the bilateral process  between Armenia and Azerbaijan could hopefully set the scene for  genuine and sustainable regional stability, and for avoiding a fake  peace. Hopefully, the global rivals in the region will recognize the  futility and greater damage of watering the seeds of instability," he  concluded.