Tuesday, July 25 2023 14:29

ArmInfo. The geopolitical nuances in the Transcaucasus will be very significant, and Iran, of  course, does not want to miss its particular benefit. This is how the Russian international political scientist Sergei Markedonov commented on yesterday's visit of Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan to Tehran.

He stated that on the eve of the Moscow ministerial for the  Armenian-Azerbaijani settlement, the Armenian Foreign Minister  visited Tehran, where he was honored with a reception by the  President and Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Islamic Republic,  respectively, Ebrahim Raisi and Amir Abdollahian.

At the same time, he stated that this visit was somehow ignored in  the thick mass of publications about the upcoming talks in the  Russian capital. But in vain!

"Why the head of the Armenian Foreign Ministry in Tehran is clear!  Yerevan is desperately trying to convey its "truth" to all interested  parties. And these attempts do not fit into the Procrustean bed of  theories that the confrontation between Russia and the West is the  leading factor in the Caucasus. Everything is much more complicated.

But to what extent is the Iranian factor important for the Caucasus  region? If you read the leading experts from the Islamic Republic on  this topic, then a kind of leitmotif of their texts and comments will  be the following: Transcaucasia was not among the most important  priorities of Tehran after the collapse of the USSR, much has been  lost. Russia and Turkey took "command heights", not always taking  into account Iranian reasons. However, today official Tehran intends  to become more active in this part of Eurasia," Markedonov said.

The Russian expert stated that many authors are trying to build  (mostly speculatively) some "blocs" in the Caucasus, however, they  are not very successful.

"Iran, of course, is not pro-Western. From the very beginning of the  1990s, it has consistently opposed the presence of "out-of-regional  players" in the Transcaucasus. But what is also important is how  Tehran understands the "collective West." For it, this is not only  the United States and the EU, but to no lesser extent Turkey and  Israel. Meanwhile, these two states are the main military-political  partners of Azerbaijan. 

Armament, raising the technological level of the army, cooperation of  special services - these are the menu of the main "dishes" that do  not cause "deep satisfaction" in Iran. Does Tehran know about  Turkey's strategic autonomy, its friction with the US and the EU? Of  course, they know, but they give an assessment objectively. After  all, the main roads from Ankara and Tel Aviv / Jerusalem lead to  Washington, and relations between Israel and Turkey are experiencing  a new "thaw", as evidenced by the upcoming meeting between Benjamin  Netanyahu and Recep Tayyip Erdogan," the Russian expert stated.

At the same time, Markedonov stated that Iran cannot be considered  pro-Russian either. In this vein, he quoted from an article of  well-known Iranian expert Vali Kaleji: " Russia's relations with  Israel and the need to maintain economic ties and transit  opportunities with Azerbaijan and Turkey after the war in Ukraine  forced Moscow to take a flexible approach to the events in the South  Caucasus, which is not in favor of Iran."

"And therefore, in his opinion," despite some similarities in the  approaches of Iran and Russia to the conflict between Armenia and  Azerbaijan after the collapse of the Soviet Union, Tehran and Moscow  have diverged in recent years regarding the Zangezur corridor, its  possible consequences for the border of Iran with Armenia and  Israel's relations with Azerbaijan.

Of course, no one canceled the "foreign policy is a continuation of  domestic policy" rule. Iran is a multicomponent society, and the  Turkic element in this "unity in diversity" is very numerous. And  hence the increased attention to any manifestations of the ideas of  "Turkic solidarity" or "unity of the Azerbaijani people." Moreover,  such approaches have their sympathizers not only in the Caucasus, but  also in DC," he continued.

Based on the foregoing, Markedonov believes that the most likely  prospect for the Caucasus will not be a "bloc system" or a remake of  the Cold War, but a situational rapprochement, not an alliance, but  "fellow travel".

"The three Eurasian giants (Russia, Turkey and Iran) have "some  coincidences" and some "discrepancies".  All three do not want the  complete dominance of each of this "Eurasian trio" and, in principle,  do not want (Turkey in some ways) the total domination of the West.  The West has less interest in the Caucasus region than in the  European part of the former USSR (Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus).  Therefore, the geopolitical nuance in Transcaucasia will be very  significant. And Iran, of course, does not want to miss its  particular benefit," the Russian expert summed up