ArmInfo. Against the background of the violation of the balance of power established in 1994 in the region, the fact that the South Caucasus is just entering a period of serious geopolitical breakdown and reformatting, any spark on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border, in Georgia or Iran can serve as a trigger for the resumption of hostilities. Former Foreign Minister of Artsakh, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary Arman Melikyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.
"Today I do not see any special prerequisites in favor of preserving the current, rather fragile peace. Taking into account the "gentlemanly" nature of the tripartite declaration of November 9, 2020 on a ceasefire, the war cannot be considered over. Another problem is that the violation of the agreements of the parties on November 9, most likely, will not be able in any way to be qualified by international law. Accordingly, the initiator of a new military aggression, the resumption of hostilities, will not face anything," he forecasted.
In the diplomat's opinion, in this light, Yerevan needs to calculate all its steps in advance, starting from what is happening around Armenia in any actions in the international arena. In this context, he highlighted the critical importance of keeping Armenia from being drawn into various geopolitical adventures in order to avoid the prospect of being drawn into conflicts that have nothing to do with the country in interests alien to Armenia.
Commenting on the current geopolitical situation around Armenia, Melikyan noted that with the signing of the trilateral statement of November 9, Yerevan's positions only worsened, since after the signing of the statement dozens of servicemen of the RA Armed Forces were captured by Azerbaijan, some territories of the RA were occupied, as well as the killings of servicemen and civilians on the border with Azerbaijan continues under the ceasefire situation.
"It is important to emphasize that no one bears responsibility for all this. And the Armenian authorities and the opposition only blame each other for what is happening, thus trying to consolidate around them the society that has fallen into apathy. It is even more important to state that neither one nor the other has a tangible and visible plan for a way out of the current disappointing situation. Against this background, they prefer to make efforts not in the direction of the formation of this very plan, which is necessary for the preservation of statehood, but in the direction of the same struggle for power. Needless to say, such actions of the country's political elite represent an absolutely dead-end, disastrous path for Armenia," the diplomat concluded.