Thursday, April 29 2021 15:45

ArmInfo. For 26 years Azerbaijan was in a state of frustration, and the narrative "this land is ours" and "we lost it as a result of the war with weaker Armenia" sounded  like a long-term refrain. Director of the Caucasus Institute  Alexander Iskandaryan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"Hence the myths that Russia, the Armenian lobby, but not Armenia,  especially Artsakh, fought with Azerbaijan. Since to the question why  an ordinary Azerbaijani does not have wealth, democracy, human rights  and the elementary right to choose the answer has always been:  because of Armenians, because we have to buy weapons, stupid  Europeans, Russians, etc. Accordingly, the victory caused euphoria in  society, which Azerbaijani politicians and Ilham Aliyev, in  particular, uses to the full extent. Can this euphoria last forever?  Of course not, "he said.

Answering the question why the euphoria continues today, the  political scientist answered - because the victory of Azerbaijan is  incomplete. And today Baku openly says that it needs a land without  Armenians.  But it also failed to take the land completely. And this  incompleteness fully reflects the feelings that exist in Azerbaijan  today. And these feelings, according to the forecasts of the  political scientist, will certainly lead to discontent. "So far, the  government assures that the problem has been solved by it, it simply  does not exist. But very soon it will begin to assert that" they  stopped us without letting it be solved completely.  "Another thing  is that Baku has always been able to cope with discontent with  various repressive methods, he remarked.

At the same time, according to Iskandaryan's estimates, having won a  victory, Azerbaijan, very possibly, acquired even as much as it did  not expect to acquire. And the matter concerns not only territories.   Meanwhile, Armenia and Artsakh lost exactly as much as Azerbaijan  gained.

As one of the political outcomes of the war, the political scientist  noted Turkey's entry into the post-Soviet conflict in the post-Soviet  space. "This happened for the first time in the history of the  post-Soviet space.  There was no such thing anywhere. A NATO member  country entered the game and won. Because without Turkey's support,  the results of the war would be completely different," he stressed.   As a result of the war, Ilham Aliyev, according to Iskandaryan's  estimates, received great, and by no means less, opportunities for  complementarism. In this light, he recalled that Azerbaijan, unlike  Armenia, has always tried to pursue a complementary policy. And  again, unlike Armenia, he did it in silence. Turkey, in turn, has  long been present in the region economically and communicatively. And  now, albeit symbolically, it began to be present in the field of  security. And all this is very serious, not to mention Turkey's  demonstrative participation in last year's war.

Accordingly, if earlier, according to the political scientist, any  escalation could be stopped by a phone call from Moscow, now Aliyev  has two telephones on his desk, and one of them connects him  to  Ankara. And which one sounds louder is a big question. All this,  according to his estimates, allows Aliyev to build his own policy on  the rivalry between Moscow and Ankara. "Yes, we see that Russia has  not allowed Turkey some things. But Ankara has achieved some goals.  And an empty plane from Baku to Yerevan is a vivid example of the  fact that from now on Putin is forced to coordinate some things with  Erdogan. Aliyev, in turn, acquired the opportunity to dance on the  field between two big guys, as he could not dance before.  And this  is an important acquisition. And Azerbaijan will use this, "he  predicts.  All this, according to the political scientist, is taking  place against the background of a consistent decline in the attention  of the United States to the South Caucasus. And the region for the  United States is not China, not Southeast Asia, or even Ukraine and  Kazakhstan. And this process, in which there is nothing good for  Armenia, according to his forecasts, will continue further.  Iskandaryan explains all this with the advent of the "new world" -  the middle powers. Regional forces, countries that are really  interested in a particular region enter into conflicts. And the  situation in which any conflict in the world was immediately painted  in the colors of the ideological confrontation between the Warsaw  Treaty Organization and NATO is already in the past.

"As a result, Russia's serious opponents in the post-Soviet space  today are: Poland in the west, Romania in the south-west, Turkey in  the south, and China in Central Asia. China, of course, is a global  power, but in Central Asia it is presented as a regional player. And  all rather not accidental tendency was very well manifested in the  example of the second Karabakh war. The issue was solved by Turkey  and Russia. All the rest were limited to a call for peace. That is  why Turkey, and not the US, will decide issues in our region on  behalf of NATO. Just because Joe Biden by no means wakes up with a  map of Artsakh over his head. And for us, it seems to be extremely  important to understand all this, "the political scientist summed up.