Friday, April 2 2021 12:18

ArmInfo. "In my speeches, interviews and publications, I have repeatedly expressed the idea that" the key to solving the Karabakh problem is in the hands of  Russia, " which was perceived with bewilderment or anger by political  forces, experts and the current government." This is stated in the  article of the first President of Armenia Levon Ter-Petrosyan,  published on ilur.am.  

At the same time, he added that given the urgency of the issue, he  considers it not superfluous to recall the positions he expressed on  this issue at the time. At the same time, the first president  apologized to readers for the vastness of these excerpts.    "Unlike the West, Transcaucasia has been and remains a sphere of  vital interests for Russia, and it is naive to believe that it will  ever abandon the path of protecting these interests. The  above-mentioned passivity of the West is partly due to the fact that  it, at least subconsciously, considers the region as a zone of  influence of Russia. If not the United States, then at least many EU  countries have somehow come to terms with this idea and are clearly  not going to actively interfere in the affairs of the Caucasus. This  means that the key to the settlement of the Karabakh conflict, and  why not the Armenian-Turkish relations, is in the hands of Russia.  

Therefore, regardless of their preferences, any Armenian government  should seek a solution to these vital problems in this geopolitical  context. This behavior is not related to desires or orientations, but  only to the awareness of reality and the imperative of political  realism. The Armenian authorities, in my opinion, do not realize this  yet. Meanwhile, Turkey and Azerbaijan, obviously, more correctly  assess the reality, as evidenced by the recent active contacts of  these countries with Russia. According to this, we found ourselves in  the same situation as in 1920, from which, unfortunately, at the time  we did not find the right way out. We have no right to repeat the  same mistake today >(Speech at the XVI Congress of the Armenian  National Movement, July 17, 2010).  

"Afghanistan, Israel, Iran and the economic crisis are such a heavy  burden for the West, which leaves no room for thinking about Karabakh  and Transcaucasia as a whole. ...Unlike the West, for Russia, the  Transcaucasus was and remains a sphere of vital interests, and it is  naive to believe that it will ever abandon the path of protecting  these interests. ... This means that the key to the settlement of the  Karabakh conflict, and why not the Armenian-Turkish relations, is in  the hands of Russia.  Therefore, regardless of their preferences, any  Armenian government should seek a solution to these vital problems in  this geopolitical context.  Undoubtedly, the extension of the  deployment of the Russian military base in Armenia and the deal on  the sale of S-300 complexes to Azerbaijan are even more important. 

They will strengthen Russia's position in the Transcaucasus and  infinitely increase its role in the Karabakh settlement process. In  the light of these recent events, it is clear that no matter how much  Russia agrees with the principles and programs developed by the Minsk  Group, it will not allow the deployment of international peacekeeping  forces in the conflict zone, and certainly will not tolerate any NATO  presence in the Transcaucasus. These statements cannot be considered  an expression of a pro-Russian or anti-Western position, as some have  perceived or tried to imagine, but only a simple statement of  reality, not related to anyone's desire or political orientation.   Unfortunately, according to the information I have, the Armenian  authorities, instead of drawing the right conclusions from this  reality, are trying to extract short-term benefits and link  everything to orientations.  

I cannot fail to mention the following significant event that took  place in Baku two weeks ago and did not attract the attention of  political scientists. I am referring to the unequivocal statement of  Presidents Medvedev and Aliyev that Russia and Azerbaijan are now  strategic partners. Although such words have been said before, the  specific content is being put into them for the first time. In other  words, what I predicted in my speech at the meeting of the RA  Security Council on January 8, 1998, has come true, noting in  particular the following: "I do not exclude, but on the contrary, I  consider it quite natural and probable that, given the problems of  Caspian oil production and the construction of oil pipelines, Russia  will soon make serious efforts to establish normal relations with  Azerbaijan, and in this case Armenia will lose its only advantage as  an ally or strategic partner of Russia in the Transcaucasus"(LTP,  selected Article 658).  

I think it is not difficult to imagine the consequences of the  strategic partnership between Russia and Azerbaijan for Armenia and  Karabakh. Thus, there are all signs that the formation of a new  Russian-Turkish-Azerbaijani format in the process of the Karabakh  settlement is becoming a fact.  This, of course, does not mean that  it will replace the Minsk Group, which, in my opinion, will continue  to exist, if only to create the appearance of a combination of  international efforts and not to irritate the West.  Meanwhile, the  real processes will take place in a new format, which in the previous  speech gave me the basis for comparing the current situation with the  situation in 1920... The attention of the entire Armenian people in  this alarming situation should be focused on the dangers facing  Karabakh and Armenia, because, as in 1920, we face the threat of  forced solutions"(Speech at the rally on September 17, 2010).  "The  settlement of the Karabakh conflict, which Armenia can achieve at the  cost of maximum efforts at the present time, could have been achieved  in 1998 on much more favorable terms. If this had happened, we would  not only have avoided the unnecessary suffering and losses of the  last eighteen years, but today we would have a completely different,  prosperous, populous, developing country and a secure Karabakh.  

It is a pity that these simple truths were not understood by some of  my colleagues at the time, and we missed the most appropriate moment  to resolve the issue.  I hope that you will take this statement not  as a reproach to some, but as a warning that if we lose time again,  we will have to deal with the issue in worse conditions and from a  much weaker position.  The reason for the devastating consequences of  the change of power in 1998 should not be found in the change of  actors, but in the violation of the continuity of policy.  Leaving  aside the past, it is clear that today we are once again faced with  the urgent need not to miss a single moment in the settlement of the  Karabakh conflict, as evidenced, in particular, by the recent serious  efforts made by Russia in this direction. I once said that the key to  solving the Karabakh problem is in the hands of Russia, and its  efforts now confirm the truth of this statement. 

Moreover, the West, which, as already mentioned, does not have the  Karabakh settlement among its priorities, is certainly not only aware  of, but also appreciates, Russia's special role in this issue. The  Armenian National Congress, like its predecessor, the Armenian  National Movement, is the only party in Armenia that has not only  never concealed, but has repeatedly publicly declared its commitment  to compromise and peace.  Therefore, not only from a principled point  of view, but also from the point of view of the situation, the  Congress should participate in the upcoming parliamentary elections  with a constructive program in order to put an end to the arms race,  exclude a new war, resolve the Karabakh issue and normalize relations  with Turkey from the vital interests of the people. This program, of  course, is only possible if the Congress wins the elections or if it  has a respectable presence in the National Assembly" (Speech at the  Congress of the Armenian National Congress, 17.12.2016).  At the same  time, at the end of the publication, Ter-Petrosyan considered it  useful to quote an excerpt from a voluminous article by the former co  - chair of the OSCE Minsk Group from the United States, Richard  Hoagland, published recently as an example of the truthfulness of his  point of view. 

"When the so-called "Lavrov plan" was published, I asked my  colleague, the Russian co-chair, Ambassador Popov, whether the  Kremlin would actually implement it if Yerevan and Baku accepted it.   He answered honestly: "Of course not." Then it became clear to me  that Nagorno-Karabakh is not a bilateral issue between Armenia and  Azerbaijan, in fact, it is a trilateral issue in which Russia plays a  key, if not a decisive role," Hoagland wrote.  "In my opinion, one of  the main reasons for the tragedy that happened to us in the Artsakh  issue was the ignorance or disregard of this reality by the two  previous and current authorities. If this were just a statement of  historical reality, I would not consider it necessary to dwell on it  again. 

Unfortunately, even today, almost all political circles and state  bodies, in particular members of the government, especially the  Ministry of Foreign Affairs, make clear statements about the hope of  resolving the Karabakh issue again within the framework of the Minsk  Group. This trend is fraught with new disappointments, if not big  losses, " Ter-Petrosyan concluded.