Tuesday, July 28 2020 12:00

ArmInfo. At the moment, there is a serious disappointment between Armenia and Azerbaijan on the issue of the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This  opinion was expressed in an interview with the Armenian service of  the Voice of America by the ex-co- chair of the OSCE Minsk Group from  the United States James Warlick, referring to the latest escalation  on the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border.

With this, he stated that, of course, everyone is concerned about the  clashes on the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border, as a result of  which there were casualties.

"The use of force was recorded, and this after a rather long  comparative lull. It is of particular concern that the clashes took  place on the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border, far from the conflict  zone. This circumstance demonstrates that the conflict is not limited  only to this zone, but also involves and other parts of these  countries. And that worries, "Warlick said.

To clarify what, in his opinion, are the motives for the use of force  by Azerbaijan right now, the former American co-chairman noted that  it is always difficult to say what exactly this is due to and why  tension has arisen in this area.

"I believe that now there is a serious disappointment between Armenia  and Azerbaijan on the issue of resolving the Nagorno-Karabakh  conflict. And in particular in Azerbaijan, which I think had big  plans and was optimistic about the new Armenian authorities.  Therefore, new negotiations began between the Prime Minister of  Armenia and the President of Azerbaijan, and since then 2 years have  passed, but as we see, peace negotiations do not yield anything and  this is painful, since it increases the level of disappointment both  in Baku and in Yerevan, "he said. adding that this disappointment  increases the likelihood of a resumption of hostilities, and not only  in Karabakh, but also on the Armenian-Azerbaijani state border, where  important infrastructures are located and a threat is created from  the point of cutting off the probability of their destruction.

At the same time, Warlick stressed that he does not see on either  side readiness to make concessions and compromises, as well as  readiness to advance the peace negotiation process. In this context,  he stated that no peace process can 100% satisfy any of the parties,  and there must be a process where all parties recognize the value of  peace negotiations in the place of war.

Speaking about the role of the OSCE Minsk Group today in the  negotiation process, the American diplomat noted that there has  always been criticism of the mediators and their activities, but the  negotiations under their auspices should be continued, and the  co-chairs in them should play a key role.  "The problem is not in the  format, it can be changed, new participants can be attracted. The  problem is that the political will of the authorities and the peoples  of Armenia and Azerbaijan is needed to end this conflict, which does  not exist today. I am concerned about the fact that there are two  countries are becoming more radical, instead of the necessary  rapprochement. And I believe that this frustration further increases  the likelihood of conflict, I mean the attitude that the only way to  resolve the issue is military. This is regrettable, because this is  not the only way - the stereotype in positions is obvious. " - he  added.  At the same time, he recalled that during his tenure as  mediator, negotiations were underway to resolve the conflict on the  basis of the Madrid principles, those principles that were supposed  to form the basis of a future peace agreement.

"If there is a more effective format of negotiations with the  involvement of new actors, then let's take this step. But my fears  are that there is simply no political will today and this applies to  both the president and the prime minister. Aggravation of the  conflict, especially outside of it. the zone is extremely dangerous  and both countries may pay a high price for this. I am concerned  about the fact that the degree of tension may increase, after all, we  have only witnessed local clashes. Both sides have accumulated a  fairly serious amount of modern weapons that cannot be taken away  from them, and it poses a threat to both civilians and  infrastructures in the event of a resumption of hostilities and will  lead to unpredictable consequences, "Warlick said, while pointing out  the need to avoid a situation where one of the parties will lose  patience or feel that it may have an advantage in the war.

The former mediator is convinced that there will be no winners in the  war, there will be new victims, bloodshed and a new war will be more  destructive than 30 years ago, which is not in the interests of  either side.

At the same time, Warlick believes that years earlier, when he  participated in the negotiation process as a mediator, the societies  of the two countries were more loyal and more inclined towards  resolving the conflict, while now the societies in the parties to the  conflict became more radicalized, which hinders the efforts of the  prime minister or President for the peaceful settlement of the  conflict.  At the same time, Warlick stated that in his days the  essence of the conflict was known and understood by a narrow circle  of persons (the presidents of the two countries and the foreign  ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan), who perfectly understood  everything and did not put forward doomed proposals or conditions.   Meanwhile, the involvement of new ministers, the ex-co-chairman  continued, will complicate the negotiation process, since they do not  have the details of the whole process, they did not participate in  the negotiations, do not know the situation from the inside.

"We are all familiar with the history and parameters of the conflict,  but negotiations are an extremely difficult process. It also took me  quite a long time to understand what was happening and where success  could be achieved. When I worked with the two presidents and  ministers, they understood and knew everything. where and what they  didn't need time. New participants will need time to understand what  and how, "he said, adding that while there is no more effective  format of negotiations, it is necessary to continue them under the  auspices of the OSCE Minsk Group, which are excellent know their  business and the essence of the process.

Speaking about the priorities of the United States in the South  Caucasus, Warlick noted that he would not like to underestimate the  policy of this administration, since there are many conflicts in the  world that need to be resolved, including the coronavirus pandemic,  which affects other areas.  "There are many conflicts in the world,  and therefore for the Trump administration, the situation in the  South Caucasus related to Armenia and Azerbaijan is not among the key  ones on the agenda. I hope that when the conflict escalates, people  die - the administration takes this seriously. The United States is  interested in stability. We do not want to see chaos in the region  for many reasons, and we do not want to see casualties The US  considers itself a good friend of Armenia and Azerbaijan.  Knowing  Russia, I am sure that they do not want chaos near their southern  borders. There is an opinion that the Russian side is not interested  in resolving the conflict, but the question is that the Russians  already have a lot of their own problems, and they do not want to  destabilize the situation on their southern borders. So, everyone is  interested in a peaceful resolution of the conflict. This is an issue  where Russia, the United States and France interact closely, even  when there is tension in their relations, "Warlick noted, adding that  peace cannot be achieved overnight and there must be a process that  will lead to a 100% settlement, including through the implementation  of trust mechanisms.