ArmInfo. I do not advise anyone to heat up the Nagorno-Karabakh "frozen" conflict, including Baku. President of the Middle East Institute (Moscow) Yevgeny Satanovsky expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo .
"Of course, the military-political leadership of Azerbaijan can resume fighting in this zone, however, to win this war, to win Karabakh, Azerbaijanis are objectively incapable. Karabakh people themselves, the local population, whom I had the opportunity to get to know, will not allow. I am only stating what I see, all the rest are conversations that have nothing to do with reality, "he emphasized.
At the same time, the analyst does not see any opportunities for a peaceful settlement, despite the increasing talk about negotiations in the direction of achieving peace. Parties to the conflict, according to his estimates, remain in their positions. And by excluding the option of resolving the conflict by force and the proposal of Baku on broad autonomy to the Karabakh people, to which the Karabakh people themselves strongly disagree, there remains a dry residue in the form of the status quo.
"There remains a theoretical possibility of resolving the conflict in the event of the entry of Karabakh and other similar national autonomies into the single state formed on the territory of the post-Soviet space. However, the practical likelihood of such a scenario is extremely low. Politicians never recognize all these realities, but this does not change the realities. Therefore, one can only reconcile with them, " Satanovsky concluded.
Since 1992, the OSCE Minsk Group, represented by the co-chairs from Russia, the United States and France, has been involved in resolving the Karabakh conflict. Since the signing of the trilateral agreement on the establishment of a truce between the parties to the Karabakh conflict, almost a quarter of a century has passed. And all these years, surges of murders on the Line of Contact have been interspersed with negotiations towards peace. However, since the end of last year, the killings have practically stopped, and the OSCE MG mediators, Baku and Yerevan, have started talking about the need to prepare the parties to the conflict for peace.