Thursday, January 31 2019 15:46

ArmInfo.Most likely, pragmatic politicians in Armenia and Azerbaijan will not risk their own popularity for the sake of abstract ideas of "peace and democracy".   Independent Russian analyst, expert on the South Caucasus Sergey  Markedonov expressed ArmInfo.

"Concluded with the formula on" preparing peoples for peace "the January talks of the Armenian and Azerbaijani foreign ministers, which was preceded by the statement of  Elmar Mamedyarov on" mutual understanding with the Armenian  counterpart for the first time in a long time, "the third informal  meeting of Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev in Davos significantly  intensified the discussion regarding the prospects for the settlement  of the Karabakh conflict. There are publications, the authors of  which predict a quick outcome of the conflict, and even call the  terms of a diplomatic deal to areas adjacent to the territory of the  former NKAO. At the same time, the question of the validity of such  expectations is still open, "the analyst believes.

Meanwhile, according to Markedonov, in their articles and analyzes on  the situation around Karabakh, journalists and experts are not the  first time to fall into the so-called. momentary trap. Within the  framework of a similar, erroneous perception of reality, the events  are viewed by researchers under a magnifying glass, against the  background of complete disregard or lack of due attention in relation  to broader contexts.To return to the land, Markedonov advises overly  optimistic-minded colleagues to try to answer the basic question: why  should the Karabakh conflict not resolved for a quarter of a century  suddenly have to be resolved after several statements by the foreign  ministers, the governments of the conflicting countries or the  diplomats? In this light, the analyst stresses that in light of the  prominence of the main negotiation theses between Armenia, Azerbaijan  and the mediators, there is simply no need for conspiratorial  theories.

"Analyzing the prospects for settlement in Karabakh, it should be  borne in mind that any agreement is not the end, but only the  beginning of a long way towards realizing the agreements on paper in  practice. Here we recall how achieving peace led to confrontations  within societies, at least on the example of Ireland The peace with  Great Britain concluded in the 20s of the last century led to a civil  war between yesterday's like- minded people in Ireland. In this  light, I will not risk the popularity of abstract ideas of politics  in Yerevan and Baku In the conditions of confrontation between them,  external pressure from the West and Russia cannot be systematic and  consolidated, "the analyst is convinced.Markedonov is convinced that  the Karabakh problem is not only a conflict between the two  republics, not only the plot of geopolitical games around a turbulent  region, but also an internal political issue. The issue has  contributed to the change of power in both Yerevan and Baku. In this  light, the conflict, according to his estimates, is in the absence of  elites' readiness for concessions and, accordingly, the impossibility  of speeding up the settlement process by the mediators.And if Moscow,  in his opinion, fears a break in the status quo, Washington and Paris  simply do not see the primacy in the Karabakh problem, which would  force them to fully switch to its resolution. 

"However, peacekeeping optimism is necessary to establish relations  between Nikol Pashinyan and Ilham Aliyev. And regardless of the  outcome of the process, it is these two politicians who will bear the  burden of responsibility for them, "Markedonov said. Since 1992, the  OSCE Minsk Group, represented by the co- chairs from Russia, the  United States and France, has been involved in resolving the Karabakh  conflict. At present, the settlement process is proceeding on the  basis of the Madrid Principles put forward by the OSCE Minsk Group  Co-Chairs in 2007 and the Madrid Principles updated in 2009, among  other things, providing for the deployment of a peacekeeping force in  the conflict zone.