Arminfo.info


 Thursday, September 14 2017 13:38
David Stepanyan

One should not rule out  Yerevan being under Moscow pressure may reject  EU agreement

One should not rule out  Yerevan being under Moscow pressure may reject  EU agreement

Founder of the Armenian Institute of International Affairs and Security Stepan Safaryan in his  interview to  ArmInfo discusses the latest geopolitical trends around Armenia. He shares the most likely versions of the prospects for Armenia's relations with the European Union, the situation surrounding the Karabakh settlement. Comments on the latest trends in the domestic political arena of Armenia. 

Recently, we are witnessing a "shake-up" of Russian and pro-Russian media in Armenia regarding a new framework agreement to be signed by Armenia and the EU in November. There are other trends in the growth of Moscow's interest in this treaty. In this respect, are  Yerevan intentions  to sign this agreement  unshakeable enough ? 

Despite the categorical statements of officials from Yerevan and Brussels about the inevitability of signing the Armenia-EU treaty in November of this year, the signals we receive from Russia, at least on an expert level, do not give us the opportunity to take these statements with 100% certainty. We can not be sure even that Moscow will not force Yerevan to refuse signing the treaty with Brussels literally the day before the scheduled date. Similar precedents, as we know, exist. The last of them was Armenia's refusal to participate in the exercise of Agile Spirit 2017 under the aegis of NATO in Georgia. Yerevan, it seemed, seemed to be allowed to participate in them, since they allowed participating in previous NATO exercises Noble Partner. However, on the very eve of the exercise, Tbilisi announced the sudden refusal of Armenia to participate in them. This, at a minimum, is an indicator of unsatisfactory statements by official Yerevan regarding the real prospects of realizing its intentions. I think that the Armenian authorities themselves are not so sure that they will be allowed to realize what they say.

 

And in what way could  the Framework Agreement, which is being prepared for signing, really threaten Russian interests in Armenia? 

Of course, there are many opinions in favor of the absence of any threats to Russia in the Agreement being prepared for signing between Armenia and the EU, the absence of opposition to this treaty by the official Moscow. However, we must understand that after August 2, Donald Trump was forced to sign a new package of sanctions against Russia, Moscow is no longer looking at the content of this or that document, but rather the need to torpedo any initiatives of the West and the US for the sole purpose of demonstrating own factor. Accordingly, regardless of the presence or absence of threats to Russia in this document, to exclude the sudden emergence of the Kremlin's political motivation, which allows him to  force Yerevan once again to abandon rapprochement with the EU does not have to happen. However, in all this there is also a positive element. Given the lack of consensus in the EU in the application of US sanctions against Russia, the latter may refuse another blow to the relations between Yerevan and Brussels. In this light, with an equal degree of uncertainty, both the signing and the refusal of Armenia to sign a new treaty with the EU can be allowed. 

Of course, Azerbaijan is the same object of  Kremlin's policy in the post-Soviet space, like Armenia. In these conditions, Baku continues to participate in the implementation of energy and transport projects aimed at isolating Russia, for example, Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan. Does this create future preconditions for Moscow's pressure on Baku, including with the use of the Karabakh conflict? 

Of course. The Karabakh problem for Yerevan and Baku is a double-edged sword. And in this light, if necessary, it is equally used and used both against Armenia and against Azerbaijan. I think that Karabakh will certainly be used against Baku in the near future, since there is no other such powerful weapon in Moscow's arsenal. At the same time, the degree of resource self-sufficiency of Azerbaijan is much higher than the Armenian one. Armenia, it can be said, completely surrendered to Russia in order to create guarantees of its fidelity to Moscow, in order to avoid the fate of Ukraine. This is the official approach of Yerevan, designed to dispel all mistrust of Russia in its relation. I think that this was facilitated by a whole series of events of the last two years: the creation of the Unified Air Defense System, the United Group of Forces, etc. In the case of Azerbaijan, the situation is somewhat different. Baku is not a conquered heart. And in this sense, Moscow is trying to maneuver with the goal, on the one hand, to win his sympathy, and on the other, to punish for disobedience. It is quite difficult to implement such a maneuver in Moscow, since it requires its voluntary consent to win sympathies of Azerbaijan. Meanwhile, Baku is rather voracious, one can say, even more than its resources allow. Ilham Aliyev considers himself to be almost a global player, accordingly, assigning the prerogative of the decision to participate in Moscow's projects exclusively to himself. At the same time, Azerbaijan in the event of a decision to participate in the EAES will undoubtedly require Moscow to pay a fairly high price for this. The price that Russia can not pay, since the final settlement of the Karabakh problem will lead to the loss of Russia to Armenia, and even more accurately of the South Caucasus. In this light, the temptation to punish Azerbaijan for the behavior of the wayward and self-sufficient virgin through the Artsakh problem for Russia comes to the fore. Nevertheless, I do not think that Moscow will stop flattering to Azerbaijan and will punish it, using even Armenia. The prospects for this have not yet been seen, especially given caution in the policy of Baku. Russia will take this step only if it is fully confident in its subsequent impunity. 

You hint something like “new April”?

 

April 2016, in my opinion, became part of the Russian policy of padding Azerbaijan. Moscow for several days turned a blind eye to the actions of Baku, giving him the opportunity to solve the problem as much as his abilities allowed. In April, Moscow demonstrated Azerbaijan's complete dependence on itself even in the matter of its defense against the Armenian counter-offensive. However, I do not see any prospects for unleashing this tangle of contradictions in the near future. Baku simply did not take a step capable of provoking a frankly hostile response from Moscow. Energy and communication projects with his participation, as you rightly pointed out, are certainly directed against Russia. And, nevertheless, they are incapable of becoming decisive in Moscow's decision to punish Baku through preferences to the Armenian side of the Karabakh conflict. Moreover, Moscow, through a statement by MFA spokeswoman Zakharova, hastened to get ready for Baku, actually taking his side in a "three-billion" scandal involving corrupt European officials and Azerbaijani authorities. 

 

The document being  on the negotiation table implies giving up at least six Artsakh districts, including Kalbajar. The practically completed Lachin alternative asphalt road linking Armenia to the north of Artsakh through Kalbajar is just one of the indicators of the ephemerality of the "Madrid principles". Is it possible in this light to agree with President Serzh Sargsyan, who says that negotiations on the resolution of the Karabakh conflict are completely absent in the negotiating agenda? 

I think yes. In the middle of the zero, the West was concerned about the settlement of these territories by the Armenian population no less than Azerbaijan. And the fact-finding mission in the territories was created not only at the request of Baku. At that time, the West was also interested in preserving the territorial status quo, not allowing the steps of the Armenian side, which could deprive the formula of "territories in exchange for status" prospects. And the complete absence of today's response to the construction of infrastructure in these territories is nothing more than a sign of the West's realization of the fact that the status quo has been broken, at least in the direction of the territorial and human realities. This is evidence of the West's rejection of previous approaches to the principles of conflict resolution. And the statement of the American co-chairman of the Minsk Group on the surrender of 7 districts, which caused a big noise, is nothing but a provocation in the good sense of the word. Since we do not understand that after such investments in Artsakh we should not expect a different reaction of the Armenian society to a settlement under a similar formula. In other words, the statement of Richard Hoagland simply prevented any shadow discussion of this topic under the aegis of Russia. 

Almost all the latest statements of the conflict parties, the Minsk Group co-chairs testify to the utter deadlock in the settlement, the absence of even a single step towards a settlement. It seems that everything that happens is no more than an imitation ... 

All parties and participants in the Karabakh conflict are in a dead end in reality today. It is a fact. To support Azerbaijan, forcing Armenia to make suicidal concessions, Russia is not in a position, since it will become a geopolitical suicide for Russia itself. The West would also like to punish Baku for excessive obstinacy by taking open steps towards Armenia. Azerbaijan would like to solve the problem by war, however, unlike in 2016, today the risks for it have significantly increased and this is against the backdrop of a decline in opportunities. As a result, having raised the bar of its own appetites, Baku is now unable either to solve the problem by military means or to do it at the negotiating table. In other words, literally all this is not allowed to make existing red lines. 

Is it so important, in your opinion, perhaps the main issue of the internal political agenda of Armenia today - who will lead the government in 2018? 

his issue, first of all, is important for determining the future fate of Serzh Sargsyan, since in the global sense the Republican Party decided to change the power in the republic in the parliamentary elections on April 2, 2017. Accordingly, intrigue is important solely on the personal field. I think that Serzh Sargsyan will remain uncertain about his "return" if possible as long as possible, although his emergence as prime minister, at least today, seems most likely. Considering that his premiership is a litmus paper, allowing to determine the essence of any person from the camp of Republicans, Sargsyan will pull with the disengagement of the "faithful" from "infidels" to the last. Actually, by this, it seriously differs from its predecessor Robert Kocharyan, who almost never left room for uncertainty. The reason, in my opinion, lies in the essence of Serzh Sargsyan as a politician, his love for political surprises. There are, of course, other candidacies for the post of prime minister - Karen Karapetyan and Vigen Sargsyan, however, in my opinion, the name of Vigen Sargsyan is voiced with the sole purpose of balancing Karapetyan's candidacy. And today, one can definitely state that for himself Serzh Sargsyan between the roles of the secretary general and the prime minister has already been determined.

Related articles
We are not Messiahs, but we can change direction of development of Armenia "Free Democrats" presented its promise to people
 Sunday, March 5 2017 16:23

ArmInfo. The biggest capital of  Armenia, are its citizens. This is stated in the presented on March 3  which is the first day of the agitation of the campaign of the  pre-election program of the party "Free Democrats".

 Tuesday, February 28 2017 00:32

ArmInfo.

Stepan Safaryan: The upcoming parliamentary elections should be held  on new terms
 Wednesday, February 22 2017 14:37

ArmInfo. The upcoming parliamentary elections in Armenia should be held on new terms as the role of the legislative body will be too big from now on, on February  22 in a press conference in Yerevan, said the head of the Armenian  Institute of International and Security Affairs (AIISA) and Deputy  candidate from "Free Democrats" Stepan Safaryan.  

With "We can" slogan and flowers "Free Democrats" and "Freedom" Bloc  presented its list to CEC
 Thursday, February 16 2017 18:07

ArmInfo. Representatives of the bloc parties "Freedom" and "Free Democrats" today, with flowers in a sign of victory presented its proportional list to the CEC.

Analyst: Extradition of Alexander Lapshin creates a new space for  isolation of Artsakh by Azerbaijan  
 Wednesday, February 8 2017 11:45

ArmInfo. The extradition of blog writer Alexander Lapshin creates a new space for isolation of Artsakh by Azerbaijan, Stepan Safaryan, Head of the Armenian  Institute of International and Security Affairs, has told ArmInfo. 

 Wednesday, January 25 2017 14:47

ArmInfo.

Forecast: Ceasefire violations and sabotage attacks are the only tool  in Ilham Aliyev`s hands   
 Wednesday, January 25 2017 14:16

ArmInfo. The ceasefire violations and sabotage attacks are the only tool of influence on Artsakh, Armenia, OSCE Minsk Group and the international community  and that tool remains in Ilham Aliyev's hands, Stepan Safaryan,  Director of the Armenian Institute of International and Security  Affairs (AIISA), has told ArmInfo.      

Expert:  Reasons of  OSCE Minsk Group being zero-address  and CSTO  being useless should be searched for in Yerevan 
 Friday, January 13 2017 16:09

ArmInfo. All the reasons OSCE Minsk Group being zero-address and CSTO being useless in respect to diversion incident in Tavush should be searched  for in Yerevan, the Director of Armenian Institute of International Relations and Security stated his opinion.

Expert: Armenia turning into Russia satellite in CSTO resulted by  Yerevan policy inferiority 
 Friday, January 13 2017 15:46

ArmInfo. Armenia's  turning into Russia's  satellite in CSTO is the result of  inferiority of  Yerevan's  policy, the Director of Armenian Institute of International Relations and Security stated his opinion.

Expert: Pretty difficult  to imagine Armenian President leading the  RPA list
 Friday, January 13 2017 13:04

ArmInfo. To me personally, it is pretty difficult to   imagine Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan  leading the proportional list of Armenian Republican Party at upcoming parliament elections, targeted to obtain lawmaker's mandate, Stephan Safaryan, the Director of Armenian Institute of International  Relations and Security stated his opinion.  "At that, his appearance in the first chart of Republican List will be the evidence of his readiness to remain the main politicalfigure of the country. It is  obvious he will do everything to make the Republican Party stay the leading political power of Armenia,' he mentioned. 

Expert: Ter-Petrosyan`s  Speech - is an attempt to generate a demand  to get rid of Karabakh
 Monday, December 19 2016 15:01

 ArmInfo. Levon Ter-Petrosyan's speech is an attempt to present the Artsakh issue as a national headache and  to generate  the public demand of giving up Artsakh, Stehan Safaryan, the head of Armenian Institute of  International Relations, shares his opinion with ArmInfo. 

Forecast: Moscow will try to deploy peacekeepers in Karabakh at the  earliest opportunity 
 Tuesday, December 13 2016 16:36

ArmInfo. Moscow will try to deploy its own peacekeepers in Nagorno-Karabakh at the earliest opportunity; President of Armenian Institute for International and Security Affairs (AIISA) Stepan Safaryan expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.

View from Yerevan: Armenia does not use the opportunity to improve  the relations with Israel due to absence of foreign policy. 
 Tuesday, December 13 2016 16:06

ArmInfo.Armenia does not use the existing opportunities to improve relations with Israel because of the total absence of foreign policy in Armenia, Stephan Safaryan, the head of Armenian Institute of International Relations and security (IISA) expressed his opinion.  "For instance, Yerevan could at least take some benefits from the recent  deterioration of Turkish-Israeli relations, but due to the reasons that are not clear to me, that haven't been done. To be fair, other external global  factors like Iran and Russia should be mentioned here," he mentioned.   Commenting today's visit of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu  toAzerbaijan, the expert did not rule out the possibility of purchase  of the Iron Dome rocket interception system from Israel, which will  cause the concerns of all the Caucasus region. 

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     

News
Archbishops Mikael Ajapakhian and Bagrat Galstanian, currently in NSS  detention center, go on hunger strikeArchbishops Mikael Ajapakhian and Bagrat Galstanian, currently in NSS  detention center, go on hunger strike
Holy Etchmiadzin issued statement expressing indignation at   reprehensible campaign unleashed by Holy Etchmiadzin issued statement expressing indignation at   reprehensible campaign unleashed by 
Under  hashtag #MERDZEVOV, march in support of political prisoner,  well-known businessman and entrepreneur Samvel Karapetyan starting on  the central boulevard of YerevanUnder  hashtag #MERDZEVOV, march in support of political prisoner,  well-known businessman and entrepreneur Samvel Karapetyan starting on  the central boulevard of Yerevan
A march in support of Samvel Karapetyan started in YerevanA march in support of Samvel Karapetyan started in Yerevan
A leader without trust, an opposition without support and peace  without concessions:  Nikol Pashinyan`s 7 years in powerA leader without trust, an opposition without support and peace  without concessions:  Nikol Pashinyan`s 7 years in power
Armenian Cathedral of Ani to function as a mosque after restorationArmenian Cathedral of Ani to function as a mosque after restoration
IDBank issues the 3rd, 4th and 5th tranches of bonds of 2025IDBank issues the 3rd, 4th and 5th tranches of bonds of 2025
Christian Solidarity International urges UN Human Rights Council to  appoint a special rapporteur for Nagorno-KarabakhChristian Solidarity International urges UN Human Rights Council to  appoint a special rapporteur for Nagorno-Karabakh
Armenia`s public multiplex  should not be used to serve foreign  policy agendas - StatementArmenia`s public multiplex  should not be used to serve foreign  policy agendas - Statement
Lawyer: the next part of Marlezon Ballet being staged in parliamentLawyer: the next part of Marlezon Ballet being staged in parliament
Alen Simonyan believes that Catholicos of All Armenians will soon  vacate Patriarchal throneAlen Simonyan believes that Catholicos of All Armenians will soon  vacate Patriarchal throne
Armenian Court of Appeal upholds Samvel Karapetyan`s arrestArmenian Court of Appeal upholds Samvel Karapetyan`s arrest
Lindsay Snell calls for support of  ANCA initiative to launch a  bipartisan Congressional letter in defense of Artsakh Armenians Lindsay Snell calls for support of  ANCA initiative to launch a  bipartisan Congressional letter in defense of Artsakh Armenians 
According to recording, <Tashir Samvel> was supposed to join later,  and Bagrat Galstanyan speaks about this: RA NA Speaker According to recording, was supposed to join later,  and Bagrat Galstanyan speaks about this: RA NA Speaker 
Levon Kocharyan is not a political figure: Alen Simonyan does not  comment on his remarksLevon Kocharyan is not a political figure: Alen Simonyan does not  comment on his remarks
Taguhi Tovmasyan to RA Prosecutor General: Maybe you haven`t received   SMS, and there is no political expediency in punishing Civil  Contract`s favorite businessman ?Taguhi Tovmasyan to RA Prosecutor General: Maybe you haven`t received   SMS, and there is no political expediency in punishing Civil  Contract`s favorite businessman ?
French Arnouville adopts resolution condemning unfair expulsion of   ICRC from AzerbaijanFrench Arnouville adopts resolution condemning unfair expulsion of   ICRC from Azerbaijan
Gegham Stepanyan: Artsakh art historians have no legal issues in  Armenia, difficulties exist only in practical fieldGegham Stepanyan: Artsakh art historians have no legal issues in  Armenia, difficulties exist only in practical field
All conversations and a fragment of the recording with Archbishop  Bagrat Galstanyan are manipulative - ARFAll conversations and a fragment of the recording with Archbishop  Bagrat Galstanyan are manipulative - ARF
Azerbaijan holding 17th ECO summit in occupied StepanakertAzerbaijan holding 17th ECO summit in occupied Stepanakert
Vahagn Chakhalyan detained Vahagn Chakhalyan detained 
RA Prosecutor General personally submitted report on Samvel  Karapetyan, which is evidence of political persecution - lawyer RA Prosecutor General personally submitted report on Samvel  Karapetyan, which is evidence of political persecution - lawyer 
Azerbaijani regime continues crackdown on journalists Azerbaijani regime continues crackdown on journalists 
RA FM holds farewell meeting with Swedish ambassador to Armenia RA FM holds farewell meeting with Swedish ambassador to Armenia 
Transport movement to be stopped in some of Yerevan`s neighborhoods  on July 4 and 5 Transport movement to be stopped in some of Yerevan`s neighborhoods  on July 4 and 5 
Cultural return must be cause of return to Artsakh - ex-minister of  culture Cultural return must be cause of return to Artsakh - ex-minister of  culture 
`Armenia`s ruling force staging performance against me` - Seyran  Ohanyan `Armenia`s ruling force staging performance against me` - Seyran  Ohanyan 
RA NA discussing consent to prosecution of MPs Seyran Ohanyan and  Artsvik Minasyan RA NA discussing consent to prosecution of MPs Seyran Ohanyan and  Artsvik Minasyan 
Yerevan hopes for strategic partnership with Washington Yerevan hopes for strategic partnership with Washington 
Pashinyan to Trump: `I highly appreciate your vision for ending  conflicts and establishing peace in the world`Pashinyan to Trump: `I highly appreciate your vision for ending  conflicts and establishing peace in the world`
Russian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan demands apology from  pro-government MPsRussian-Armenian businessman Samvel Karapetyan demands apology from  pro-government MPs
Armenia needs mechanisms to prevent one-man rule - expert Armenia needs mechanisms to prevent one-man rule - expert 
Armenia`s ex-premier raises voice in defense of Russian-Armenian  businessman Samvel Karapetyan Armenia`s ex-premier raises voice in defense of Russian-Armenian  businessman Samvel Karapetyan 
Armenia appreciates US support for peace efforts in South Caucasus -  RA vice-premier Armenia appreciates US support for peace efforts in South Caucasus -  RA vice-premier 
Armenian authorities actions killing businesses - UAR president Armenian authorities actions killing businesses - UAR president 
Current authorities` actions in  the energy sector demonstrate a consistent and systematic anti-national strategy: David AnanyanCurrent authorities` actions in  the energy sector demonstrate a consistent and systematic anti-national strategy: David Ananyan
Ottawa to continue its support to Yerevan: AmbassadorOttawa to continue its support to Yerevan: Ambassador
If the border crossing  between Armenia and Turkey is to be renamed,  it should be in honor of Hrant Dink:  International Institute for  Genocide and Human Rights If the border crossing  between Armenia and Turkey is to be renamed,  it should be in honor of Hrant Dink:  International Institute for  Genocide and Human Rights 
Armenia`s National Assembly  adopted statement on  inadmissibility of  state power seizureArmenia`s National Assembly  adopted statement on  inadmissibility of  state power seizure
Even while in custody, Samvel Karapetyan  is a thousand times more  liberated than  Armenian authorities:  son of Tashir State  Corporation`s head Even while in custody, Samvel Karapetyan  is a thousand times more  liberated than  Armenian authorities:  son of Tashir State  Corporation`s head 
Mikael Ajapahyan`s lawyers file an appeal against the decision to arrestMikael Ajapahyan`s lawyers file an appeal against the decision to arrest
Armenia, Vienna discuss ways to enhance cooperation in migrationArmenia, Vienna discuss ways to enhance cooperation in migration
Mirzoyan: Armenia seeks to strengthen ties with China without any  limitationsMirzoyan: Armenia seeks to strengthen ties with China without any  limitations
Armenian-Belgian consultations between Foreign Ministries of Armenia  and Belgium  held in YerevanArmenian-Belgian consultations between Foreign Ministries of Armenia  and Belgium  held in Yerevan
Armenia willing to join SCOArmenia willing to join SCO
Less than 10,000 out of approximately 150,000 internally displaced  persons  from Nagorno-Karabakh received citizenship  of ArmeniaLess than 10,000 out of approximately 150,000 internally displaced  persons  from Nagorno-Karabakh received citizenship  of Armenia
RA Minister of Justice announces creation of self-regulatory body in   media RA Minister of Justice announces creation of self-regulatory body in   media 
Pashinyan receives Ambassador of Sweden, who is concluding his  diplomatic mission in ArmeniaPashinyan receives Ambassador of Sweden, who is concluding his  diplomatic mission in Armenia
Results of meeting of Constitutional Reforms Council to underlie  ideology of new Constitution Results of meeting of Constitutional Reforms Council to underlie  ideology of new Constitution 
Financial assistance programme for some forcibly displaced  Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians to be continued until end of 2025 Financial assistance programme for some forcibly displaced  Nagorno-Karabakh Armenians to be continued until end of 2025 
Armenian law-enforcers confiscate over 7kg of marijuana Armenian law-enforcers confiscate over 7kg of marijuana 
Ardshinbank summed up the raffle organized for Mastercard Business cardholdersArdshinbank summed up the raffle organized for Mastercard Business cardholders
Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria to allocate  $9.6mln to Armenia Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria to allocate  $9.6mln to Armenia 
Armenia modifies order of compensations under ECHR judgments Armenia modifies order of compensations under ECHR judgments 
No one can deal with issue of Ruben Vardanyan`s release - Andrey  MovchanNo one can deal with issue of Ruben Vardanyan`s release - Andrey  Movchan
Armenia`s premier demands early election of Catholicos of All  Armenians Armenia`s premier demands early election of Catholicos of All  Armenians 
Checkpoint on Turkish-Armenian border  could be renamed Talaat Pasha  Border CrossingCheckpoint on Turkish-Armenian border  could be renamed Talaat Pasha  Border Crossing
Sargis Khandanyan elected Chair of General Committee on Democracy,  Human Rights and Humanitarian QuestionsSargis Khandanyan elected Chair of General Committee on Democracy,  Human Rights and Humanitarian Questions
Azerbaijani and Armenian leaders to meet in Dubai later in JulyAzerbaijani and Armenian leaders to meet in Dubai later in July
Archbishop Mikael Ajapahyan`s lawyers filed petition with  prosecutor`s office to terminate  criminal prosecutionArchbishop Mikael Ajapahyan`s lawyers filed petition with  prosecutor`s office to terminate  criminal prosecution
Read more



Commented