Arminfo.info


 Wednesday, June 14 2017 19:47
David Stepanyan

Alexander Krylov: Georgia gave up the role of democracy spotlight, the regional political center relocated to Armenia.

Alexander Krylov: Georgia gave up the role of democracy spotlight, the regional political center relocated to Armenia.

Alexander Krylov, Head of the Center of Post-Soviet Studies at the Institute of World Economy and International Relations, Russian Academy of Sciences, shares his views about priorities of Russia’s policies at post-Soviet   area. Comments on the reasons of problems in Russian-Armenian relations, the Role of Karabakh conflict in regional processes and in processes mentioned.        

 

 

Russian politicians and experts use to describe the post-Soviet area as the zone of Russia’s vital interests. What are the reasons of such approach, except NATO’s permanent expansion to East?

 

 

Many people consider the post-Soviet zone as gone to historical deep. But, whether it is good or not for certain people, it remains an objective reality. The common ground of former Soviet republics is reflected permanently and in various sectors. As well as the problems, contradictions and conflicts, which have taken places. The relations with post-Soviet states are of priority meaning for Russia, because they set preconditions for the further development of Russia.  After obtaining the independence, former Soviet Republics took different paths, which preconditioned the current character of those relations with Russia, their neighbor countries and other states. The process of post-Soviet elite capsulation has always been under the strictest external pressure and in many aspects was preconditioned by global tendencies. At that, elites seemed not to notice the fast annihilation of the middle class, imposing their ideological models, often destroying cultural and national identity. In some countries, elites even sacrifice national interests, rejecting the independence for foreign suzerain's sponsorship. All these things are happening under the conditions of globalization, and globalism is exactly its ideology, assuming the economies should be released from national states power, leading economies out of limits of any national identity and to full apolitization of economic life. By the way, Donald Trump's victory states that mankind has already passed the ultimate point of globalization, i.e. the American oriented single-polar model of global order.

 

 

 

The world changes, but Russia’s priorities at South Caucasus remain the same. Isn’t it a time to change approaches and geopolitical accents in the region?

 

After the fall of USSR the South Caucasus appeared in the focus of attention of leading global and regional players first because its important geographic location. Thanks to that, USA and NATO got a good military-strategic platz der arm at the Russian and Iranian borders, as well as the access to energy infrastructure of Caspian Sea   and the opportunity to build up new transit paths. In this respect, turning the region in the zone of strict contradictions between Russia and West is natural. At that, Russia's interests at Caucasus are quite different than those of foreign states.  And, if for the West the Caucasus is just one of far regions, for Russia it is a closest region connected to its most complicated ethnical region - North Caucasus.

 

 

Exactly the important military-strategic location that preconditioned the nature of challenges Russia faced at its southern borders. That is why Moscow's policy is aimed at neutralizing existing and potential threats for Russia. At that, internal and external threats are closely connected, hence the cancellation of those demands coordinated policy at South Caucasus.

 

 

You did not state any economic interests..

 

South Caucasus does not play essential economic role for Russia, but plays in military- strategic aspect. This region being not big one, does not appear as an important market, is not the region of globally important natural resources, even oil reserves of Azerbaijan  take very simple place of global energy  market. At the same time, Russia is interested in using the transit potential of South Caucasus and in further development of North-South transport corridor through the territory of Azerbaijan. And from the point of global economy South Caucasus is not a supplier of energy resources, but it is a transit from Central Asia to Global markets. USSR fall opened an opportunity for US and EU to build up a new system of energy corridor passing Russia and Iran. If main transportation flows from Central Asia go to Europe through the territory of South Caucasus passing Russia, Moscow will be cut off the role of main transit corridor of energy resources. It is obvious that it would make Russia vulnerable and would weaken Russia's position in Central Asia and International platform. This is the most important thing.

 

 

 

Calls from Moscow to rename EEU as EAU (EurAsian Union) keep increasing. What is that, if not a proof of West concerns regarding Russia’s plans to reincarnate USSR?  

 

I could say that there is no any disagreement between USA, NATO and EU experts in respect to main goal of West at the post-Soviet region. This is the policy of opposing to all the attempts of Russia to launch any reintegration projects and to keep own influence here.     The situation at the South Caucasus essentially changed after the 5-day war, and United States and their allies were made to realize that they would not expect Russia to leave South Caucasus in the nearest future. At the same time sharp activation of external players towards Armenia took place, which states the relocation of international and regional policy priorities from Georgia to Armenia and Azerbaijan. The center of regional policy relocated to Armenia, and the prospective of the region now are preconditioned with the fact if the tight relations with Russia will be kept. Meanwhile, a certain part of Armenian society, even within the consideration of negative experience of Georgia and Ukraine, makes it choice towards West. This is proven by the new Armenian Parliament, where the parties standing for revision of Armenian-Russian relations are represented.

 

 

Terrorist attack on Iran is another evidence of the absence of countries fully protected of that evil, all over the world. Is the terrorism threat actual for South Caucasus by now?

 

During recent years South Caucasus appeared in shadows due to events in Syria, but exactly Syria events capsulate tendencies that could make an essential impact on South Caucasus countries. Ukrainian factor could also play negative role in the case if external forces will be interested in further weakening of Russian positions through expanding the non-tranquil zone at its borders. In this case, according to expert estimates, Southern Caucasus could be used against Russia through defrosting conflicts, destabilization of internal political situation in the countries of the region and other factors. It is obvious that Russia and other regional countries do have

interest in keeping sustainability at South Caucasus region, but the struggle against external threats is complicated with internal contradictions of Armenia-NKR-Azerbaijan and Russia-Abkhazia-South Ossetia-Georgia. As the result, the Southern Caucasus remains one of non-tranquil zones of modern world, which promotes the destructive intervention of external forces, ISIS and other terrorist organizations activities.

 

 

What is the main problem contained in Armenian-Russian relations for today?

 

 

The main problem for Russia in relations with Armenia is the power model set in Armenia since 1991 - the dictatorship of monopolies and criminal tightly connected to authorities, which turned the country into a source of personal enrichment. Within such a power any development projects lose their efficiency, including those of EEU framework and, as the result, the population does not feel any advantages of joining EEU. In its turn, the intension of authorities to lead social discontent to Russian dimension, in addition to that oriented to Turkey and Azerbaijan, sets preconditions for radical change of political course of Armenia to the West. Serzh Sargsyan is not an ideologically motivated leader. That is why he could not be considered as western-oriented leader. Sargsyan plays the anti-Russian card not only in the name of ideas to bring to life, but to secure good intentions of USA and EU. And there are western and Russian oriented adepts inside the Republican Party, as well as a large number of politicians   permanently remaining uncertain between these two vectors.

 

As the result, during recent years Russia is considered the main reason of Armenian troubles. The increase of anti-Russian tendencies in Armenia becomes more and more obvious. This was obviously proved by the participation of Vladimir Putin in ceremonies dedicated to the 100th   anniversary of Armenian genocide. However, under the conditions of permanent activities of Russia's opponents in Armenian media and informational environment, the positive effect of Russian president's visit did not last long. Soon the attention of the public was switched to the Russian arms sales to Azerbaijan. I could say that Baku succeeded in using the military-technical cooperation with Russia for own benefits. Russian armaments shipments to Azerbaijan turned into one of the most painful problems in relations of Moscow and Yerevan.

 

Yes, but in April last year Azerbaijan launched against Armenian troops, as well as against civil population, “Solntsepecks” and “ Smerches” purchased recently from Russia. And that was exactly the April war that became the latest reminder of Russian policy in respect to strategic partner being far from friendly...   

 

 

April 2016, surely, demonstrated the incompetence of the Azerbaijani army to solve Karabakh problem through a rapid military blitzkrieg. Yes, the attack involved new types of weapons and the most  prepared  special forces, which, along with the tank units, gave the most serious losses, but could not solve the tasks set. At the same time, April revealed serious shortcomings in Armenian armed forces as well: in intelligence, communications and supply. At the same time, I consider necessary to take into account that in the battles took part exclusively Armenian advanced units, staffed mostly by conscripts.  Many of the modern types of military equipment on their armament were not used, including high-precision tactical missile systems.

 

 

 

Karabakh peaceful settlement continues within ongoing shootings and cannonades. Baku speaks about stage by stage, Yerevan and Stepanakert – about package solutions. What gals of negotiations process could be highlighted by you?

 

Chronic dead end in negotiations, accompanied by sharply increased level of tension, transforms the main task of the OSCE Minsk Group and Russian diplomacy with the continuation of the imitation of Peace Process in establishing a real armistice regime. The April 2016 battles demonstrated the need to create a reliable monitoring system, including the permanent presence of groups of international military observers on the entire contact line, technical means for objective control, etc. An agreement on the establishment of such a system under the aegis of OSCE Minsk Group should include legally mandated obligations of the conflicting parties to identify and punish those responsible for violating the ceasefire. Only effective international control over the ceasefire will create conditions for the activation of the negotiation process with the aim of achieving a comprehensive settlement of Karabakh conflict. Otherwise, the level of aggression of the parties will continue to increase, and Karabakh issue will continue to remain a source of tension and an obstacle to the development of the entire South Caucasus.

 

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     

News
Archbishop Mikael Ajapahyan`s lawyers filed petition with  prosecutor`s office to terminate  criminal prosecutionArchbishop Mikael Ajapahyan`s lawyers filed petition with  prosecutor`s office to terminate  criminal prosecution
Russians in Azerbaijan reported cases of physical violence against  them Russians in Azerbaijan reported cases of physical violence against  them 
Deterioration of relations between Azerbaijan and Russia should be  considered in the format of a geopolitical matryoshka - political  scientistDeterioration of relations between Azerbaijan and Russia should be  considered in the format of a geopolitical matryoshka - political  scientist
Moscow: Russia is sincerely interested in stability in fraternal  Armenia, as it is beneficial to usMoscow: Russia is sincerely interested in stability in fraternal  Armenia, as it is beneficial to us
Civil Contract faction introduces  NA draft statement on  inadmissibility of  seizing  state powerCivil Contract faction introduces  NA draft statement on  inadmissibility of  seizing  state power
Catholicos of All Armenians notes the importance of support from  international structures and organizations toward the Armenian peopleCatholicos of All Armenians notes the importance of support from  international structures and organizations toward the Armenian people
RA Investigative Committee: Searches at Tashir Group Company head  office on the grounds of  money laundering and tax evasionRA Investigative Committee: Searches at Tashir Group Company head  office on the grounds of  money laundering and tax evasion
Armenia`s first president  considers Pashinyan`s attacks on  Church  to be  external orderArmenia`s first president  considers Pashinyan`s attacks on  Church  to be  external order
Ardshinbank at the Forefront of Digital Security: Sponsor and Participant of BugBounty 2025 EventArdshinbank at the Forefront of Digital Security: Sponsor and Participant of BugBounty 2025 Event
Armenian Defense Minister met with Indian AmbassadorArmenian Defense Minister met with Indian Ambassador
Criminal case against third president of Armenia sent to  Anti-Corruption CourtCriminal case against third president of Armenia sent to  Anti-Corruption Court
MP: consolidation of society around David Hambardzumyan`s candidacy  is more than possibleMP: consolidation of society around David Hambardzumyan`s candidacy  is more than possible
Electric Networks nationalization project  is unconstitutional:  LawyerElectric Networks nationalization project  is unconstitutional:  Lawyer
Searches  conducted at the head office of Tashir Group of Companies  in YerevanSearches  conducted at the head office of Tashir Group of Companies  in Yerevan
Businessman Karapetyan`s Defense Council  responds to Pashinyan`s  threats against employees of Electric NetworksBusinessman Karapetyan`s Defense Council  responds to Pashinyan`s  threats against employees of Electric Networks
Mikhail Onufrienko: where there is crime, secret services and illegal  agents  always  workMikhail Onufrienko: where there is crime, secret services and illegal  agents  always  work
IDBank Opens a New Branch at Homplex MallIDBank Opens a New Branch at Homplex Mall
Age qualifications for police service to be abolished in Armenia Age qualifications for police service to be abolished in Armenia 
Consideration of Samvel Karapetyan`s appeal transferred to judge  whose `career growth` depends on ruling parliamentary faction -  lawyer Consideration of Samvel Karapetyan`s appeal transferred to judge  whose `career growth` depends on ruling parliamentary faction -  lawyer 
Armenia, France discuss defense cooperation issues Armenia, France discuss defense cooperation issues 
We express our gratitude for Canada`s principled support for  Armenia`s sovereignty, territorial integrity and democratic  development - NA vice-speaker We express our gratitude for Canada`s principled support for  Armenia`s sovereignty, territorial integrity and democratic  development - NA vice-speaker 
Severer punishment for unlicensed driving to take effect in Armenia Severer punishment for unlicensed driving to take effect in Armenia 
Samvel Karapetyan case `political persecution` Samvel Karapetyan case `political persecution` 
Armenia`s premier threatens ENA staff over political intrigue Armenia`s premier threatens ENA staff over political intrigue 
Armenian NA speaker raises issue of blocking Russian TV channels in  Armenia Armenian NA speaker raises issue of blocking Russian TV channels in  Armenia 
Armenia main goal of Turkiye and Azerbaijan - expert Armenia main goal of Turkiye and Azerbaijan - expert 
Fraudsters using forged banknotes exposed in Armenia Fraudsters using forged banknotes exposed in Armenia 
Armenian, Canadian FMs discuss bilateral cooperation agenda Armenian, Canadian FMs discuss bilateral cooperation agenda 
Eight Russian nationals arrested in Azerbaijan Eight Russian nationals arrested in Azerbaijan 
It is time for us to seriously discuss the matter of stopping the  broadcasting of Russian TV channels in Armenia: Alen SimonyanIt is time for us to seriously discuss the matter of stopping the  broadcasting of Russian TV channels in Armenia: Alen Simonyan
 Labor Ministry  expands access to  state housing program for Artsakh  families Labor Ministry  expands access to  state housing program for Artsakh  families
AraratBank: Special Rate for SWIFT Transfers up to EUR 20,000AraratBank: Special Rate for SWIFT Transfers up to EUR 20,000
A march in support of businessman Samvel Karapetyan to take place in  Yerevan on July 4A march in support of businessman Samvel Karapetyan to take place in  Yerevan on July 4
Serzh Sargsyan didn`t want it either: Alen Simonyan on how the  authorities will achieve removal of Karekin IISerzh Sargsyan didn`t want it either: Alen Simonyan on how the  authorities will achieve removal of Karekin II
Team Telecom Armenia, Team Systems under one roof: new Team Place  smart solutions center  openedTeam Telecom Armenia, Team Systems under one roof: new Team Place  smart solutions center  opened
Armenia`s Deputy PM met with EU Special Representative for the South  Caucasus and the crisis in GeorgiaArmenia`s Deputy PM met with EU Special Representative for the South  Caucasus and the crisis in Georgia
Alen Simonyan believes that Pashinyan`s social media posts on   Ajapahyan case don`t constitute pressure on  courtAlen Simonyan believes that Pashinyan`s social media posts on   Ajapahyan case don`t constitute pressure on  court
There are foreign agents of influence, because Prime Minister talks  about them: NA SpeakerThere are foreign agents of influence, because Prime Minister talks  about them: NA Speaker
Armenia- EU Security and Defense first session of consultations held  in YerevanArmenia- EU Security and Defense first session of consultations held  in Yerevan
Ucom Launches 5G Network in Abovyan and EjmiatsinUcom Launches 5G Network in Abovyan and Ejmiatsin
Armenian defense minister meets with RA military attaches Armenian defense minister meets with RA military attaches 
Professor Armen Charchyan leaves for Spain Professor Armen Charchyan leaves for Spain 
From July 1, 2025, German Embassy in Armenia to offer improved  application service via TLS Contact to all Armenian citizens who need  Schengen visaFrom July 1, 2025, German Embassy in Armenia to offer improved  application service via TLS Contact to all Armenian citizens who need  Schengen visa
Armenia, Iran highlight further efforts to improve transnational  crime control Armenia, Iran highlight further efforts to improve transnational  crime control 
Armenia`s premier sends congratulatory message to Canadian  counterpart Armenia`s premier sends congratulatory message to Canadian  counterpart 
Nonstandard Europe: EU ambassador to Baku enlisted in criminal  circles Nonstandard Europe: EU ambassador to Baku enlisted in criminal  circles 
Azerbaijan cannot do without clashing with Russia in context of  ambitious tasks in Armenian and Iranian theaters - Russian expert Azerbaijan cannot do without clashing with Russia in context of  ambitious tasks in Armenian and Iranian theaters - Russian expert 
Armenia forced to focus its limited resources on servicing its  national debt rather than investing in humanitarian needs - Vahagn  Khachaturyan Armenia forced to focus its limited resources on servicing its  national debt rather than investing in humanitarian needs - Vahagn  Khachaturyan 
Peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be success story -  Armenian MPPeace between Armenia and Azerbaijan could be success story -  Armenian MP
Professor Armen Charchyan not allowed to leave Armenia Professor Armen Charchyan not allowed to leave Armenia 
Peace achievable in South Caucasus - Armenian MP at OSCE Peace achievable in South Caucasus - Armenian MP at OSCE 
AGBU urges Armenian authorities and  Church to exercise restraint and  unityAGBU urges Armenian authorities and  Church to exercise restraint and  unity
Representatives of  Catholicos of  Great House of Cilicia met with   Catholicos of All ArmeniansRepresentatives of  Catholicos of  Great House of Cilicia met with   Catholicos of All Armenians
Kallas promised Pashinyan EU supportKallas promised Pashinyan EU support
Swiss MP: Pashinyan will hardly work for the return of the displaced  from Nagorno-KarabakhSwiss MP: Pashinyan will hardly work for the return of the displaced  from Nagorno-Karabakh
ARF  Central Committee in Western Europe calls Macron`s stance on the  situation in Armenia unacceptableARF  Central Committee in Western Europe calls Macron`s stance on the  situation in Armenia unacceptable
Azerbaijani Ambassador summoned to Russian MFAAzerbaijani Ambassador summoned to Russian MFA
MFA: Tehran is closely monitoring Israel`s actions to use the  territory of neighboring countries to renew aggression against IranMFA: Tehran is closely monitoring Israel`s actions to use the  territory of neighboring countries to renew aggression against Iran
Samvel Karapetyan`s office: Public support cannot and should not be  subject to censorshipSamvel Karapetyan`s office: Public support cannot and should not be  subject to censorship
After  After  "velvet revolution" Pashinyan tripled RA National Security  Service`s funding  
Read more



Commented