Arminfo.info



 Friday, May 19 2017 13:57
David Stepanyan

Thomas Graham : Karabakh  situation will  smudge and burn  for a pretty  long time

Thomas Graham : Karabakh  situation will  smudge and burn  for a pretty   long time

Thomas Graham, the  managing director at Kissinger Associates, Inc., where he focuses on Russian and Eurasian affairs, Ex- Special Assistant to the President Bush  and Senior Director for Russia on the National Security Council staff from 2004 to 2007,  also served as the Associate Director of the Policy Planning Staff of the Department of State,  one of the founders and co-Directors of the Russian Studies Project at Yale, in his interview to ArmInfo speaks about current conditions of Russian-Chinese relations, Donald Trump’s Administration political motivation in respect to Iran, speaks about the Karabakh conflict settlement

 

 

    An opinion exists  stating thatDonald Trump's administration views the relation with Russia from the priority point of the relations with Chin. And tit is exactly Beijing that forms in general the agenda of Moscow-Washington relations. Do you subscribe such point of view?

 

I think, in real this position is not so close to reality.  Everything regarding Russia in the end brings to bilateral relations for USA. This is the most important thing. The matter is our different visions and estimates of the situation existing. For instance, regarding issues like Syria, Ukraine, European security. At that, in respect to issues related to Eastern Asia, the main partner for  United States is China. The problem in USA-Russia is relations in the stubborn rejection of Washington to recognize the Russian presence in Asia. To recognize the significant  role Russia plays in this region. Meanwhile when estimating the role of China in Eastern Asia, USA obviously underestimates the role of Russia. That is why there is no triangle existing in USA-Russia-China relations. I don't know how it goes in China or in Russia, but there is no such disposition for Washington in Moscow- Beijing relations for sure.

 

 

And, in any way, is China the main global partner for USA today?

 

The heart of the matter is that USA today is the leading global power.  At that, China grows very fast, and its power looks much more impressive than 5-10 years agop. That is why China is viewed by Americans as the only country that could become the strategic competitor for United States. That is why US pays a special attention to China and applies many efforts in respect to relations with Beijing. 

 

 

Could You please state the most proper line to settle the problems with Russia? If, of course, You think this vector is right and proceeds from US interests? 

 

The urgent need to have a dialogue with Russia exists right now. We have to resume the communication channels we had successfully implemented before Ukrainian explosue r. We have essential contradictions existing between our countries. They will not disappear, and Moscow and Washington need a better mutual understanding of  positions. No issues could be settled without the cooperation between our countries.

 

 

 

Was the recent statement of USA President regarding Northern Korea reading something like  put everything in order there or we will do it ourselves" addressed to Pyongyang or the final correspondent was Beijing?

 

 Guess it  was addressed directly  to Northern Korea, because a great deal of danger comes out exactly out of there. In my opinion, this action of White House was not a kind of pressure to China. More likely it was a call for cooperation  stating that  " if  things go bad for us, they will go bad for everyone, including you."

 

 

 

In distinct to Barak Obama’s administration, Donald Trump’s staff has essentially toughened the position in respect to Iran. What interests exactly  is it preconditioned by and what is the motivation, up to You?

 

The reasons and motivations are pretty various. First of all, this is being suspicious regarding Tehran nuclear program. The second is the ambitions of Iran at Middle East. We have a opinion that the main target of Iran is to  restructure the existing status quo at Middle  East, and to become the leader  of the region in the end.  And this all is happening under conditions of Iran refusing to adjudicate Israel, to consider the interests of United States, condemning the very fact of our presence in the region. In such circumstances it is not real to expect we will agree for sole domination of Iran in the region. And this is exactly one of the main reasons of Trump's motivation in forming the agenda in respect to Iran.  At the same time, I think if  changes in Iranian authorities would become reality, the  USA-Iran relations would be of quite another kind, reminding that 40 years ago the main tower of strength for USA in the region was  the Shakh  Iran. In this respect, I do  not rule out returning of American-Iranian relations to the level of those with Shakh Iran. For now, considering the level of ideology of current Iranian authorities, such a level of cooperation is simply excluded.

 

 

South Caucasus is another part of a big region embraced by hybrid wars, which is discussed by us now, and this part is also burning with long lasting conflicts. Could we speak about Karabakh problem settlement options?   

                  

To my great regret, the Karabakh conflict will  smudge and burn and  for a pretty  long time yet, because it  burns and smudges for three decades already, due to ethnic tension.   I could say that it is very hard to settle the conflict operating the principles of territorial integrity and self- determination simultaneously. Of course, a time may come when these problems could be settled and the conflict will get a chance to be settled. But here another question arises - when the Caucasus was completely tranquil? That is why the smudging Karabakh is a normal situation for Caucasus.

 

 

Which power – regional, external or internal one -  is interested in keeping Karabakh conflict being unsettled ?

          

I  don’t  think that Russia or USA are interested in keeping Karabakh conflict in smudging status. According to the expert, the problem is that Yerevan and Baku are very defensive in their positions, and their positions are right opposite. I would like to accentuate also  the difficulties of settling the conflict under the circumstances of being equal to national identity. Any exit to a mutually acceptable compromise able to satisfy both Azerbaijanis and Armenians, is very difficult to reach.

 

 

And, nonetheless , relying on Your experience, what is the possible compromise in Your opinion?

 

All the compromises possible for the settlement are being discussed already. Adjudication of Nagorno Karabakh as a part of Armenia, its actual independence, communication paths between Armenia, Karabakh, Azerbaijan and  Nakhidjevan and others. Up to me, such issues are to be solved when both sides are  simply get tired and understand that it is impossible to go on in such bellicose situation like this. In the case of Karabakh it is obvious that  sides did not reach this understanding yet.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     

News
Official voting results of Russian citizens in Armenia have been  announcedOfficial voting results of Russian citizens in Armenia have been  announced
With With "demarcation" going at this rate it will reach Yerevan:  Pashinyan points out to Tavush residents the need to quickly transfer  4 villages to Azerbaijan
Pashinyan meets with Tavush residents as promised earlier: Details of  meeting have not yet been providedPashinyan meets with Tavush residents as promised earlier: Details of  meeting have not yet been provided
Stoltenberg: Azerbaijani-Turkish armed forces close cooperation  strengthens Azerbaijan-NATO relationsStoltenberg: Azerbaijani-Turkish armed forces close cooperation  strengthens Azerbaijan-NATO relations
Armenia and Azerbaijan now have opportunity to achieve enduring peace  after years of conflict - NATO Sec GenArmenia and Azerbaijan now have opportunity to achieve enduring peace  after years of conflict - NATO Sec Gen
Armenian government`s intention to waive the claims filed against  Azerbaijan in international courts to cause irreparable damage to  Armenian people - human rights activists Armenian government`s intention to waive the claims filed against  Azerbaijan in international courts to cause irreparable damage to  Armenian people - human rights activists 
Ardshinbank cardholders can now enjoy a 10% cashback!Ardshinbank cardholders can now enjoy a 10% cashback!
Higher school buildings to be managed by international company -  premierHigher school buildings to be managed by international company -  premier
Armenian CEC rep observe U.S. primaries Armenian CEC rep observe U.S. primaries 
Contemporary Indian writer Arjun Krishna Lal`s book released in  Armenian Contemporary Indian writer Arjun Krishna Lal`s book released in  Armenian 
U.S reaffirms commitment to durable and dignified peace between  Azerbaijan and Armenia - Joe Biden U.S reaffirms commitment to durable and dignified peace between  Azerbaijan and Armenia - Joe Biden 
Deepening Armenian-Indian relations among Armenia`s foreign policy  priorities Deepening Armenian-Indian relations among Armenia`s foreign policy  priorities 
Moscow Moscow "testing" its relations with Yerevan
Armenia`s possible withdrawal from CSTO should take country`s real  needs into account - Russian foreign office rep Armenia`s possible withdrawal from CSTO should take country`s real  needs into account - Russian foreign office rep 
Region closer to peace than ever before - president of Azerbaijan Region closer to peace than ever before - president of Azerbaijan 
Three Sad Stories about FraudstersThree Sad Stories about Fraudsters
Armenia`s Deputy FM admits setback in Armenia-EU visa requirement  simplification Armenia`s Deputy FM admits setback in Armenia-EU visa requirement  simplification 
Opposition is denied access to draft peace treaty with Azerbaijan -  MPOpposition is denied access to draft peace treaty with Azerbaijan -  MP
Stoltenberg: NATO sought to support stronger partnerships with both  Armenia, Azerbaijan in 2023Stoltenberg: NATO sought to support stronger partnerships with both  Armenia, Azerbaijan in 2023
Peter Stano: Armenia may apply to join EUPeter Stano: Armenia may apply to join EU
Azerbaijanis destroy13th-century Armenian khachkar in village of  Tsar, Shaumyan region of occupied ArtsakhAzerbaijanis destroy13th-century Armenian khachkar in village of  Tsar, Shaumyan region of occupied Artsakh
Zatulin: Strengthening Armenian-EU relations to require  revision of  Armenia`s membership in EAEUZatulin: Strengthening Armenian-EU relations to require  revision of  Armenia`s membership in EAEU
Basic principles of settling Armenian-Azerbaijani relations remain  unchanged - MFABasic principles of settling Armenian-Azerbaijani relations remain  unchanged - MFA
Oppositionist: Armenian government has failed its program, including  through CSTOOppositionist: Armenian government has failed its program, including  through CSTO
Foreign Minister: We are not negotiating surrender of villages in  Tavush region to AzerbaijanForeign Minister: We are not negotiating surrender of villages in  Tavush region to Azerbaijan
Foreign office: Today, mutual understanding between Yerevan and Baku  regarding mutual recognition of territorial integrity is higher than  month agoForeign office: Today, mutual understanding between Yerevan and Baku  regarding mutual recognition of territorial integrity is higher than  month ago
Statue honoring Soghomon Tehlirian unveiled in MarseilleStatue honoring Soghomon Tehlirian unveiled in Marseille
Armenian Revolutionary Federation holds protest in front of Armenian  Consulate in Los AngelesArmenian Revolutionary Federation holds protest in front of Armenian  Consulate in Los Angeles
Azerbaijan-Iran conflict predestined - Stepan Danielyan Azerbaijan-Iran conflict predestined - Stepan Danielyan 
Turkmenistan and Austria aim to expand the boundaries of bilateral cooperationTurkmenistan and Austria aim to expand the boundaries of bilateral cooperation
Senior Russian diplomat discusses Ukraine, South Caucasus at talks in  AnkaraSenior Russian diplomat discusses Ukraine, South Caucasus at talks in  Ankara
Armenian, Artsakh political forces issue joint statement  Armenian, Artsakh political forces issue joint statement
Our main goal is to return to Artsakh soil - Andrei SergeenkoOur main goal is to return to Artsakh soil - Andrei Sergeenko
AAA disappointed with financial aid to Armenia next year AAA disappointed with financial aid to Armenia next year 
Armenia committed to work actively on implementation of provisions of  EU resolution - Armenia NA speaker Armenia committed to work actively on implementation of provisions of  EU resolution - Armenia NA speaker 
European Parliament approves resolution on closer ties between the EU and ArmeniaEuropean Parliament approves resolution on closer ties between the EU and Armenia
Armenia intends to bring its domestic legislation to conformity with  ICC requirementsArmenia intends to bring its domestic legislation to conformity with  ICC requirements
Artsakh information Center calls on mass media to refrain from unfounded accusations against Artsakh authoritiesArtsakh information Center calls on mass media to refrain from unfounded accusations against Artsakh authorities
4 villages in Tavush are not included in Armenia`s administrative  borders  - minister4 villages in Tavush are not included in Armenia`s administrative  borders  - minister
Defense Minister: Defense Minister: "Nobody gave the order not to open fire"
Ararat Mirzoyan, Louis Bono discuss current security situation in  South Caucasus Ararat Mirzoyan, Louis Bono discuss current security situation in  South Caucasus 
Kremlin: Moscow to clarify with Armenian side situation around  Yerevan`s withdrawal from CSTO Kremlin: Moscow to clarify with Armenian side situation around  Yerevan`s withdrawal from CSTO 
Armenia hosting Francophonie Days Armenia hosting Francophonie Days 
Armenia`s authorities realizing Aliyev`s agenda by starting border  delimitation from Tavush - Mane Tandilyan Armenia`s authorities realizing Aliyev`s agenda by starting border  delimitation from Tavush - Mane Tandilyan 
South Caucasus stability one of Turkiye`s prioritiesSouth Caucasus stability one of Turkiye`s priorities
Tragic events in Nagorno Karabakh made France develop security  cooperation with Armenia - ambassador Tragic events in Nagorno Karabakh made France develop security  cooperation with Armenia - ambassador 
EU applies anti-Russian EU applies anti-Russian "geopolitical optic" everywhere - Russian  official 
Deployment of the EU Civilian Mission in Armenia aimed at  establishing lasting peace and ensuring stability in region - Paruyr  HovhannisyanDeployment of the EU Civilian Mission in Armenia aimed at  establishing lasting peace and ensuring stability in region - Paruyr  Hovhannisyan
Crossroads of Peace project divorced from reality Crossroads of Peace project divorced from reality 
PM: Armenian border guards wto perform their duties at Zvartnots  airport from August 1PM: Armenian border guards wto perform their duties at Zvartnots  airport from August 1
Pashinyan on Arshak Karapetyan`s dismissal reason and his special  relations with MoscowPashinyan on Arshak Karapetyan`s dismissal reason and his special  relations with Moscow
Premier: Yerevan sees and feels Turkiye`s presence in  Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process Premier: Yerevan sees and feels Turkiye`s presence in  Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process 
At meeting with French Ambassador, head of Armenia faction, notes  importance of sanctioning Azerbaijan for atrocities in Artsakh At meeting with French Ambassador, head of Armenia faction, notes  importance of sanctioning Azerbaijan for atrocities in Artsakh 
Pashinyan: External forces also provoked main force organizing ethnic  cleansing in KarabakhPashinyan: External forces also provoked main force organizing ethnic  cleansing in Karabakh
Our political force will follow path of institutional solutions -  ex-mayor of Yerevan Our political force will follow path of institutional solutions -  ex-mayor of Yerevan 
Yerevan is ready to expand its agenda with BrusselsYerevan is ready to expand its agenda with Brussels
Soviet Encyclopedia `to help` Pashinyan; Armenia`s territory is less  than 29,800 sq. km.Soviet Encyclopedia `to help` Pashinyan; Armenia`s territory is less  than 29,800 sq. km.
Yerevan is working to return prisoners from Baku, although at times  it looks like `Sisyphean task` - PashinyanYerevan is working to return prisoners from Baku, although at times  it looks like `Sisyphean task` - Pashinyan
If Armenia`s borders are If Armenia`s borders are "red line" for CSTO, let them demonstrate it  - Pashinyan
Pashinyan specifies timeframe of Armenia`s new Constitution  referendum Pashinyan specifies timeframe of Armenia`s new Constitution  referendum 
Read more



Commented