Arminfo.info



 Tuesday, November 15 2016 11:14
David Stepanyan

Losing the milling cesspool status and turning useless for everyone, the Islamic State will be destroyed

Losing the milling cesspool status and turning useless for everyone, the Islamic State will be destroyed

ArmInfoIn an interview to ArmInfo, Dr. David Hovhannisyan, Armenian diplomat, expert on Eastern Studies, speaks about the reasons and motives of the Syrian crisis, collision of different countries’ interests in Syria, possible preconditions of the conflict settlement, and the problems between Russia and the Western world.

Do you think some transformation of the Syrian conflict has taken place over the past 5 years?

Today's events in Syria are mostly the same that used to be 5 years ago. In one of previous conversations with you, I have described already the Syrian events by external factors in first. And they are still preconditioned first by external factors. Of course, huge flows of blood have gone since that time, the Syrian society has been divided, and the Syrians turned back to the lifestyle of the 15th century, having their tribal ties as the only hope for security, because even the confessional relations are being destroyed nowadays. But all these events are taking place here, "down on the Earth", while at the upper levels the struggle of global and regional interests goes on, obtaining more and more dangerous forms and limits, and an example of that could be the Russian plane shot down by Turks. I do consider obvious that in such conditions it is impossible to talk about the settlement of the situation at lower levels, "on the Earth". To my strong belief, it’s Russia, Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia, as well as the US Alliance that are involved in the Syrian conflict. And they do fight harder and harder. Because Syria, Iraq and ISIS are the places where the bellicose masses from the entire world are trying to get today.

It may sound pretty naïve, but anyway – why has this aggression always flocked and splashed out exactly in the Middle East area since the end of WWII?

Not only in the Middle East area. An essential crash of interests could be seen today also in the South Chinese Sea, around the Korean problem, etc.

Yes, but everything is already taken, shared and separated there, as distinct from the Middle East…

To the first view, it's a long time that the World already has been divided to pieces and shared in between, but that "sharing" happened under conditions of existence of two super powers. Along with the collapse of the USSR, the political pressing that used to affect all the political vectors and ruled their behavior had disappeared as well. I never considered the world as unipolar, due to the simple reason that any action causes a counter action, which could be observed in the USA during Bush Jr.’s presidency and the "weight" of the World is much more than that of one pole. The World may become unipolar only in case we face any threat to our existence from some alien civilization. During the World War I the apple of discord has been divided to pieces by the Sykes-Picot Agreement, and after that the borders drawn by a simple ruler kept existing under various mandates. The WWII did not break those borders and even the Arab-Israeli conflict highlighted the fact of the existence of two mighty poles. But after one of these poles has disappeared, all the "perfect" lines started voicing their own position in the world, claiming the facts in respect to civilization, culture, history and the Great Arab State, promised by British and French powers. We clearly understand that it is idealism and that it is hard to imagine Morocco and Yemen being under one single caliphate, because things have changed. But for Arabs all those ideas, the memory of Great Power still remains the same. For instance, we, Armenians, do remember the era of Tigran the Great, those blessed times, but we keep silence on the fact that it’s only an illusion.

Does it mean you think Arabs are struggling for these fabulous ideas? 

Why should they be called fabulous? These ideas generate energy to develop a new look at the World. That is not happening yet, of course. We are talking about the Arab dimension, but there is also an Islamic dimension, and many interesting processes are taking place there - for instance, the struggle of Saudi Salafi project and Muslim Brotherhood to Shiite projects – Iran, Iraq, Lebanon, Syria, Bahrain  etc. 

Whose interests collide in Syria first?

I may cause many angry responses saying that I cannot see any special, essential interests of the United States in Syria, understanding that as a global player Washington should secure its presence in such areas. And in Syria the United States holds its struggle exceptionally within the purpose of not to allow the others like Russia and China to occupy a position, which they consider important, not to allow Syria to be found under influence of one global player. Meanwhile, Russia's interests in Syria are very clear. And all the events of the same nature taking place in Ukraine could be described with Sevastopol, losing which Russia

would  lose its actual  presence in the Black Sea area, which has recently turned into something like a "NATO lake", except a little piece under Russia's protectorate and Abkhazia, which has no ports. And without the Sevastopol port, Russia would not have an access to the Mediterranean Sea, where it also has a strict need for bases. At least, for maintenance and refilling of its vessels. And the matter with "Admiral Kuznetsov" is an example of that. From this point of view, Syria is the most comfortable place in all the Mediterranean area. That is why Russia tries hard to recover its presence in Syria up to the level of the Soviet Union period. And Russia’s negotiations with Egypt on Russian vessels harboring demonstrate at least Russia's being not sure about the base in Lattakia. We should not forget about another global player - China, and regional players - Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and other Gulf countries. Erdogan's apologies to Putin let us suppose that Russia and Turkey, as well as Turkey and the  United States have reached military-political agreements to cancel any immediate Kurd threat from Syria. Turks were not allowed to do more, that is why both the United States and Russia strictly cut any attempt of Turkey to break the limits. Saudi Arabia, in its turn, feeds everything that could be fed.

They feed everything that could explode. Why?

Yes, exactly. Everything that could explode, especially taking into consideration their hate to Bashar Assad's establishment. Religious hate, because they are sure the Shiites are heretics, political hate – because Syria draws a claim  for the leadership in Arabian league, and geopolitical – appearing as an intention to break the “Shiite zone”.  Beside these reasons, there are also dozens of others.

And what about Iranian interests?

Iran also plays an essential role and not in a single region. And the security of the Shiite zone, which has been established within  hardest efforts, is number one priority for Iran. The loss of the Shiite zone means Iran’s role decrease in all the regions of its presence.

Talking about the Shiite zone, do you mean the Iran-Syria-Lebanon triangle?

And also Iraq, as well as other countries with Shiites minority, and Bahrain, where Shiites form the majority. Hence, Iranian opportunities to impact the Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, are very  large.

However, are there any signs of Syrian crisis settlement?

Syrian crisis will end only when the volunteers from all over the world quit arriving to Syria under the flags of ISIS, which  declared itself  the Islamic Caliphate, claiming the annihilation of  all the "kuffars" and the power of  "sincere believers". We can see that recently this flow has a tendency to decrease. And even the ISIS leaders have changed their tactics, calling out for  volunteers  not to come to Syria, and to act at their own places. These claims are very clear and they have a purpose to divert the attention of the countries struggling against ISIS.  Once the flow of volunteers to ISIS stops, it will turn a useless segment, losing the status of cesspool milling out unsustainable elements from all over the world. And, once it turns useless, it will be destroyed. And only upon that it will become possible to settle the situation in Syria. It is not real to talk about the prospect of the Syrian crisis end without destroying ISIS. At that, there is no need to differentiate the ISIS and the Jabhad Al Nusra, as well as any  other titles being created  just and only to avoid the strikes, because all these groups are of the same origin and have the same essence.

Since the collapse of the USSR, Russia perceives NATO expansion and its being surrounded by bellicose countries as an existential threat. Does the Syrian dimension appear as a part of that threat?      

Guess these are different dimensions. Yet at the time of separation of Germany, while placing the nuclear weapon throughout its   western regions, the United States used to describe that fact with the policy of inhibition of the Soviet Union and Warsaw Union countries. In this context, Ukraine is the brightest example. Ukrainian crisis may permanently expand and the West will be involved. And, regardless of any scenario, the presence of Russian troops in Ukraine is a step to be answered to. And, from my point of view, this answer of NATO is aimed exactly at the inhibition of Russia at prevention of further escalation.  Syria is not a part of  this  policy. At that, all the concerns of Russia being surrounded by unfriendly countries are justified. Russia should not intervene in the conflict while being not confident in its own resources. And  that's why the time has come for Russian to change the policy.

For instance?

Moscow does not possess enough resources to be involved in the struggle at all the fronts. The option is to continue the process

That started  in the 90s of last century - the liberalization of Russian policy.

That liberalization stood by a fingernail to Russia’s complete fall…

First of all that happened because of the reason that it was not consequent, was not tied to very depth of Russian society, did not consider its variety and diversity.  Anyway, the terms “Tsar (King)  Boris” and “Liberalization” are mutually excluded. In the 90s the federalization  assumed the principle "take as much as you can". It is very good for countries like Lichtenstein, but not for Russia.

Do you think that if Russia goes deeper into liberalism and gets rid of the “king”, the West will accept it?

Eurasian ideology is destructive for Russia, because Russia turned the Russian Empire due to its presence at the European political area, initiated yet by Peter I and, in certain limits, by Tsar (King) Alexey. Moscow's intention  to set the Eurasian Union in opposing NATO and European Community is a wrong estimate of own capability. Except some serious works published in the 20s of last century, there are no serious research works of  “Eurasians” in respect to this issue by now, all containing inadequate estimates of the current situation.

Eurasians like Alexander Dugin?

Yes, exactly. Like Dugin and people like him, making absolutely wrong classifications of state types, etc. The fact is that today’s reality all by itself states the wrong kind of such “research”. Of course, Russia's being concerned about its borders and Russians’ intentions  to keep  the influence throughout all the post-Soviet area is  absolutely understood,  natural and justified. But such people’s ideology and mode of reaction still cause harm to Russia. And the heart of the matter is that it is not me who should think about that sitting here in Armenia. This is quite an impartial conclusion but, anyway,  I don't want to think as a man who is unconcerned with this.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     

News
Official voting results of Russian citizens in Armenia have been  announcedOfficial voting results of Russian citizens in Armenia have been  announced
With With "demarcation" going at this rate it will reach Yerevan:  Pashinyan points out to Tavush residents the need to quickly transfer  4 villages to Azerbaijan
Pashinyan meets with Tavush residents as promised earlier: Details of  meeting have not yet been providedPashinyan meets with Tavush residents as promised earlier: Details of  meeting have not yet been provided
Stoltenberg: Azerbaijani-Turkish armed forces close cooperation  strengthens Azerbaijan-NATO relationsStoltenberg: Azerbaijani-Turkish armed forces close cooperation  strengthens Azerbaijan-NATO relations
Armenia and Azerbaijan now have opportunity to achieve enduring peace  after years of conflict - NATO Sec GenArmenia and Azerbaijan now have opportunity to achieve enduring peace  after years of conflict - NATO Sec Gen
Armenian government`s intention to waive the claims filed against  Azerbaijan in international courts to cause irreparable damage to  Armenian people - human rights activists Armenian government`s intention to waive the claims filed against  Azerbaijan in international courts to cause irreparable damage to  Armenian people - human rights activists 
Ardshinbank cardholders can now enjoy a 10% cashback!Ardshinbank cardholders can now enjoy a 10% cashback!
Higher school buildings to be managed by international company -  premierHigher school buildings to be managed by international company -  premier
Armenian CEC rep observe U.S. primaries Armenian CEC rep observe U.S. primaries 
Contemporary Indian writer Arjun Krishna Lal`s book released in  Armenian Contemporary Indian writer Arjun Krishna Lal`s book released in  Armenian 
U.S reaffirms commitment to durable and dignified peace between  Azerbaijan and Armenia - Joe Biden U.S reaffirms commitment to durable and dignified peace between  Azerbaijan and Armenia - Joe Biden 
Deepening Armenian-Indian relations among Armenia`s foreign policy  priorities Deepening Armenian-Indian relations among Armenia`s foreign policy  priorities 
Moscow Moscow "testing" its relations with Yerevan
Armenia`s possible withdrawal from CSTO should take country`s real  needs into account - Russian foreign office rep Armenia`s possible withdrawal from CSTO should take country`s real  needs into account - Russian foreign office rep 
Region closer to peace than ever before - president of Azerbaijan Region closer to peace than ever before - president of Azerbaijan 
Three Sad Stories about FraudstersThree Sad Stories about Fraudsters
Armenia`s Deputy FM admits setback in Armenia-EU visa requirement  simplification Armenia`s Deputy FM admits setback in Armenia-EU visa requirement  simplification 
Opposition is denied access to draft peace treaty with Azerbaijan -  MPOpposition is denied access to draft peace treaty with Azerbaijan -  MP
Stoltenberg: NATO sought to support stronger partnerships with both  Armenia, Azerbaijan in 2023Stoltenberg: NATO sought to support stronger partnerships with both  Armenia, Azerbaijan in 2023
Peter Stano: Armenia may apply to join EUPeter Stano: Armenia may apply to join EU
Azerbaijanis destroy13th-century Armenian khachkar in village of  Tsar, Shaumyan region of occupied ArtsakhAzerbaijanis destroy13th-century Armenian khachkar in village of  Tsar, Shaumyan region of occupied Artsakh
Zatulin: Strengthening Armenian-EU relations to require  revision of  Armenia`s membership in EAEUZatulin: Strengthening Armenian-EU relations to require  revision of  Armenia`s membership in EAEU
Basic principles of settling Armenian-Azerbaijani relations remain  unchanged - MFABasic principles of settling Armenian-Azerbaijani relations remain  unchanged - MFA
Oppositionist: Armenian government has failed its program, including  through CSTOOppositionist: Armenian government has failed its program, including  through CSTO
Foreign Minister: We are not negotiating surrender of villages in  Tavush region to AzerbaijanForeign Minister: We are not negotiating surrender of villages in  Tavush region to Azerbaijan
Foreign office: Today, mutual understanding between Yerevan and Baku  regarding mutual recognition of territorial integrity is higher than  month agoForeign office: Today, mutual understanding between Yerevan and Baku  regarding mutual recognition of territorial integrity is higher than  month ago
Statue honoring Soghomon Tehlirian unveiled in MarseilleStatue honoring Soghomon Tehlirian unveiled in Marseille
Armenian Revolutionary Federation holds protest in front of Armenian  Consulate in Los AngelesArmenian Revolutionary Federation holds protest in front of Armenian  Consulate in Los Angeles
Azerbaijan-Iran conflict predestined - Stepan Danielyan Azerbaijan-Iran conflict predestined - Stepan Danielyan 
Turkmenistan and Austria aim to expand the boundaries of bilateral cooperationTurkmenistan and Austria aim to expand the boundaries of bilateral cooperation
Senior Russian diplomat discusses Ukraine, South Caucasus at talks in  AnkaraSenior Russian diplomat discusses Ukraine, South Caucasus at talks in  Ankara
Armenian, Artsakh political forces issue joint statement  Armenian, Artsakh political forces issue joint statement
Our main goal is to return to Artsakh soil - Andrei SergeenkoOur main goal is to return to Artsakh soil - Andrei Sergeenko
AAA disappointed with financial aid to Armenia next year AAA disappointed with financial aid to Armenia next year 
Armenia committed to work actively on implementation of provisions of  EU resolution - Armenia NA speaker Armenia committed to work actively on implementation of provisions of  EU resolution - Armenia NA speaker 
European Parliament approves resolution on closer ties between the EU and ArmeniaEuropean Parliament approves resolution on closer ties between the EU and Armenia
Armenia intends to bring its domestic legislation to conformity with  ICC requirementsArmenia intends to bring its domestic legislation to conformity with  ICC requirements
Artsakh information Center calls on mass media to refrain from unfounded accusations against Artsakh authoritiesArtsakh information Center calls on mass media to refrain from unfounded accusations against Artsakh authorities
4 villages in Tavush are not included in Armenia`s administrative  borders  - minister4 villages in Tavush are not included in Armenia`s administrative  borders  - minister
Defense Minister: Defense Minister: "Nobody gave the order not to open fire"
Ararat Mirzoyan, Louis Bono discuss current security situation in  South Caucasus Ararat Mirzoyan, Louis Bono discuss current security situation in  South Caucasus 
Kremlin: Moscow to clarify with Armenian side situation around  Yerevan`s withdrawal from CSTO Kremlin: Moscow to clarify with Armenian side situation around  Yerevan`s withdrawal from CSTO 
Armenia hosting Francophonie Days Armenia hosting Francophonie Days 
Armenia`s authorities realizing Aliyev`s agenda by starting border  delimitation from Tavush - Mane Tandilyan Armenia`s authorities realizing Aliyev`s agenda by starting border  delimitation from Tavush - Mane Tandilyan 
South Caucasus stability one of Turkiye`s prioritiesSouth Caucasus stability one of Turkiye`s priorities
Tragic events in Nagorno Karabakh made France develop security  cooperation with Armenia - ambassador Tragic events in Nagorno Karabakh made France develop security  cooperation with Armenia - ambassador 
EU applies anti-Russian EU applies anti-Russian "geopolitical optic" everywhere - Russian  official 
Deployment of the EU Civilian Mission in Armenia aimed at  establishing lasting peace and ensuring stability in region - Paruyr  HovhannisyanDeployment of the EU Civilian Mission in Armenia aimed at  establishing lasting peace and ensuring stability in region - Paruyr  Hovhannisyan
Crossroads of Peace project divorced from reality Crossroads of Peace project divorced from reality 
PM: Armenian border guards wto perform their duties at Zvartnots  airport from August 1PM: Armenian border guards wto perform their duties at Zvartnots  airport from August 1
Pashinyan on Arshak Karapetyan`s dismissal reason and his special  relations with MoscowPashinyan on Arshak Karapetyan`s dismissal reason and his special  relations with Moscow
Premier: Yerevan sees and feels Turkiye`s presence in  Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process Premier: Yerevan sees and feels Turkiye`s presence in  Armenia-Azerbaijan normalization process 
At meeting with French Ambassador, head of Armenia faction, notes  importance of sanctioning Azerbaijan for atrocities in Artsakh At meeting with French Ambassador, head of Armenia faction, notes  importance of sanctioning Azerbaijan for atrocities in Artsakh 
Pashinyan: External forces also provoked main force organizing ethnic  cleansing in KarabakhPashinyan: External forces also provoked main force organizing ethnic  cleansing in Karabakh
Our political force will follow path of institutional solutions -  ex-mayor of Yerevan Our political force will follow path of institutional solutions -  ex-mayor of Yerevan 
Yerevan is ready to expand its agenda with BrusselsYerevan is ready to expand its agenda with Brussels
Soviet Encyclopedia `to help` Pashinyan; Armenia`s territory is less  than 29,800 sq. km.Soviet Encyclopedia `to help` Pashinyan; Armenia`s territory is less  than 29,800 sq. km.
Yerevan is working to return prisoners from Baku, although at times  it looks like `Sisyphean task` - PashinyanYerevan is working to return prisoners from Baku, although at times  it looks like `Sisyphean task` - Pashinyan
If Armenia`s borders are If Armenia`s borders are "red line" for CSTO, let them demonstrate it  - Pashinyan
Pashinyan specifies timeframe of Armenia`s new Constitution  referendum Pashinyan specifies timeframe of Armenia`s new Constitution  referendum 
Read more



Commented