Stepan Grigoryan: Russia cannot impose pressure upon Armenia because of the Customs Union as it scares to lose its only ally in the South Caucasus

Mr Grigoryan,
after the presidential election in Armenia the problem of comparison and even confrontation
of the integration projects offered to us by the global players has again become
relevant also thanks to Serzh Sargsya’s visit first to Moscow than to Brussels.
What possible scenarios can we see here?

I
think that by his first after the election visit to Moscow,
President Serzh Sasrgsyan demonstrated the strategic priorities of Armenia. I
think that was a wise and correct step. His visit to Moscow was not a purely protocol one and
contained a certain political gesture. Among other issues discussed in Moscow, they also touched
on the Customs Union. But I don’t agree to the statements according to which . Russia  exerts pressure on Armenia to join the  Customs Union. In addition, one should not
forget the recent statement by Armenian President Serzh Sargsyan in an
interview with local TV channels that in the Customs Union they do not wait for
Armenia.
I think that the given issue was discussed in the course of the president's
last visit to Moscow and Armenia managed to bring the
necessary arguments in favor is its refusal to join that organizations. Those arguments have probably satisfied the Kremlin.

 Do you
rule out raising of then gas tariff by Moscow  for Armenia,
as the optimistic authorities of Armenia do not rule out that?

 As regards the possibility of increasing the Russian
gas tariff for Armenia in
response to Yerevan's refusal to join Moscow's integration
projects. Over the last years the gas tariff has been growing from time to time
without any political reasons. 
Therefore, it is wrong studying gas as a measure of pressure on Armenia. Very
often we underestimate the role of Armenia
for Russia in the South Caucasus. It is Armenia
that ensures military presence of Moscow
in the region. Russia has a
military base in Armenia.
As an ally, Armenia has got
more importance for Russia
after exploitation of the Gabala radar station was terminated.  Gabala radar station's closing down will put
an end to Russia's military
presence in Azerbaijan.

 As for joining the Customs Union , Ukraine and its big market is more important for
Russia
now.

Of course,. Moscow
will not fully dismiss Armenia.
Conferences on the topic of the Customs Union will be regularly held in Armenia, delegations will arrive in Armenia to persuade, at least, the expert
society, that it is necessary to involve in the integration projects of Moscow. However, no
radical measures or breakthroughs are expected in the visible future

Against
the background of such uncertainty in the matter of the Customs union, the
prospects of signing the EU Association agreement have been gaining specific
outlines. Is enthusiasm of the Armenian party relevant now, taking into account
the recession in the EU?

Europe has been gradually overcoming
consequences of the crisis. The most difficult period is already behind. Today
there is a tendency of the economy growth in several leading European countries
- Germany, Italy, France, etc. For this reason, I think
that parallel to surmounting the recession the EU will enhance cooperation with
its neighbours, including partners at post-Soviet area. Although the EU has
been developing the Eastern Partnership programme with 6 countries, there is no
word about their joining the EU. For this reason, Brussels does not scare that these 6
countries will become a burden to it. 
Armenia should be concerned about rapprochement with the EU most of all,
as the European game rules are clear unlike, for instance, the Customs Union
offered by Moscow.

If
not everything is clear with the Customs Union, why do the European
functionaries worry about that and put Armenia in front of the dilemma from
time to time?

The Europeans
understand that the game rules in the Customs Union confront their rules. For this
reason, they worry. However, one should understand that this dilemma is
regarding only the economic cooperation. As for the military and political
sphere, here the EU does not pretend to the role of Russia
in Armenia.

What
developments are expected in the Karabakh settlement in the near future?

 There will be no progress in the Nagorno-
Karabakh peace talks in the near future. Azerbaijan is preparing for a
presidential election and has no time for peace talks. In fact, there have been
no high level meetings between Armenia
and Azerbaijan
for over a year.

Among the
key factors curbing the peace process are no mutual confidence, the release of
Azeri murderer Ramil Safarov and Azerbaijan's tales about "the
Khojaly Genocide."

The Armenian diplomacy must use this pause
for active contacts with other countries. An inter-parliamentary dialogue and
mutual visits are crucial for our efforts to raise the world community's
awareness of the Nagorno-Karabakh problem and to prevent any attempts to
distort the truth.