Arminfo.info


 Thursday, July 21 2016 13:31

Tatevik Shahunyan

Paul Goble says Moscow has lost its interest in Christian Armenia and is moving to increase its ties with majority Shia Islamic Azerbaijan, Armenia's longtime enemy, and now with Sunni Turkey

Paul Goble says Moscow has lost its interest in Christian Armenia and is moving to increase its ties with majority Shia Islamic Azerbaijan, Armenia

 "Perhaps the most important geopolitical development of mid-July 2016 was not the continuing conflict in the South China Sea, the failed coup in Turkey, or terrorist violence in France-all of which attracted considerable international attention-but rather the quiet signing, in Moscow, of an agreement by Russian, Iranian, Azerbaijani and Indian officials to open a north-south rail line in the Caucasus," says Paul Goble in his article "Moscow 'Bypassing' Armenia to Reach Azerbaijan, Iran and India" published by The Jamestown Foundation. 

Goble believes that the accord will not only link those three countries, but ultimately tie together rail systems from India, by ship to Iran, and on to Europe, via Azerbaijan and Russia. "This will have profound consequences for the states and territories along its route. However, the country most immediately and negatively affected by this new rail system will be Armenia, which is not a party to these arrangements," he says in the article. 

"The Russia-Iran-Azerbaijan-India railroad accord represents Moscow's ongoing efforts to reach an agreement with Baku. These Russian efforts include closer consultations on a range of foreign policy issues as well as an agreement to train Azerbaijani military officers in Russian military academies after a break of two decades.  Furthermore, there are indications that the Russian government is now prepared to push harder for a two-step solution to the Karabakh conflict by pressing Armenia to withdraw its forces from five (of the seven) regions of Azerbaijan other than Karabakh and then later to negotiate about some future autonomous status for the separatist Karabakh territory after that happens.  
That is something most Armenian political leaders and the Armenian public more generally oppose, but now their country may not be able to block such a resolution of this "frozen" conflict," Goble writes.  

In addition, Goble is sure that the July rail agreement "underscores Armenia's declining importance both economically as well as in Moscow's political calculations, highlighting that country's inability to count on what it had assumed was Russia's inevitable support for a fellow Orthodox Christian country (Armenians are overwhelmingly members of the Armenian Apostolic Church-a part of Oriental Orthodoxy). Instead, Russia is moving to increase its ties with majority Shia Islamic Azerbaijan, Armenia's longtime enemy, and now with Sunni Turkey. In this situation, Armenia has no good choices.  

Moreover, Iran is likely to back away from plans to build a rail line to Yerevan, preferring to concentrate on Azerbaijan. And the outbreak of violence in Yerevan this week (starting July 17), where self- proclaimed "revolutionaries" seized a police station and took hostages, may be yet another sign of Armenia's combination of domestic and foreign policy problems." 

Paul Goble is the author of the known plans to settle the Karabakh conflict that were rejected by the sides.  There are two versions of the plan; "Goble-1" and "Goble-2". The first version was approved and encouraged by the Administration of George Bush already in January 1992. "Goble-2" emerged in 1996.  The author accepted that in the first version he had made "a big mistake", since "he hadn't realized what a psychological meaning the common border with Iran has for Armenia." "Goble-2" didn't anticipate any abolition of the Armenian-Iranian borders and didn't allow territorial attachment of Turkey and Azerbaijan.  Instead, "Goble-2" suggested exchanging the southern part of Armenia (the Region of Megri) with the western part of Nakhichevan autonomy, where it has a 9-km border with Turkey. At the same time Nagorno- Karabakh, together with the Lachin Corridor become a part of Armenia, or get independence; the blockade of the Armenia-Turkish border is abolished, the problem of non-enclave existence of Nakhichev Autonomy of Azerbaijan is solved, the border between Armenia and Iran are preserved, and is only moved to north, which has a key geopolitical significance: in this case when being passed to Armenia, the part of Nakhichevan Autonomy doesn't allow any joining with Turkey and Azerbaijan.  

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     

News
"Business Process Optimization with AI" – a Course for the Senior Management of AraratBank
100th birthday anniversary of great masters Henrikh Malyan and Aghasi  Ayvazyan to be marked in Yerevan100th birthday anniversary of great masters Henrikh Malyan and Aghasi  Ayvazyan to be marked in Yerevan
Lands in Goris community to be donated to Little Ones of Armenia  charitable foundation Lands in Goris community to be donated to Little Ones of Armenia  charitable foundation 
RA Human Rights Defender launches probe into raids and detentions of  ARF members RA Human Rights Defender launches probe into raids and detentions of  ARF members 
U.S. Congressman Brad Sherman concerned over recent arrests in  Armenia U.S. Congressman Brad Sherman concerned over recent arrests in  Armenia 
Police raid ARF members` homes, detain people Police raid ARF members` homes, detain people 
ANCA CEO raises voice in defense of Russian-Armenian businessman  Samvel Karapetyan ANCA CEO raises voice in defense of Russian-Armenian businessman  Samvel Karapetyan 
OSCE/ODIHR informed of controversy over AAC OSCE/ODIHR informed of controversy over AAC 
Armenia, EU hold sixth meeting of Partnership CommitteeArmenia, EU hold sixth meeting of Partnership Committee
Armenian premier, Azerbaijani president to discuss peace deal in Abu  Dhabi Armenian premier, Azerbaijani president to discuss peace deal in Abu  Dhabi 
Samvel Karapetyan sues blogger Roman Baghdasaryan demanding retraction and payment of 6 million dramsSamvel Karapetyan sues blogger Roman Baghdasaryan demanding retraction and payment of 6 million drams
Zhanna Andreasyan: RA government  prioritizes development of Armenian StudiesZhanna Andreasyan: RA government  prioritizes development of Armenian Studies
Court`s decision to arrest NA deputy Artur Sargsyan to be appealed- lawyerCourt`s decision to arrest NA deputy Artur Sargsyan to be appealed- lawyer
Artur Sargsyan arrested for 2 monthsArtur Sargsyan arrested for 2 months
ARF members, Russian State Duma representatives discuss regional security issuesARF members, Russian State Duma representatives discuss regional security issues
RA Prime Minister arrives in UAE on working visitRA Prime Minister arrives in UAE on working visit
RA MFA: There can be no agreement on  RA MFA: There can be no agreement on  "Zangezur corridor"
Zakharova comments on information about Azerbaijan selling weapons to UkraineZakharova comments on information about Azerbaijan selling weapons to Ukraine
Oppositionist: It is necessary to integrate Artsakh residents in Armenia in order to move away from the principle of Oppositionist: It is necessary to integrate Artsakh residents in Armenia in order to move away from the principle of "no man, no problem"
Starting January 1, citizenship  services for both obtaining and terminating citizenship will be digitized- MIAStarting January 1, citizenship  services for both obtaining and terminating citizenship will be digitized- MIA
A decision to arrest a member of the National Assembly to be made within the next  2-3 hours - lawyerA decision to arrest a member of the National Assembly to be made within the next  2-3 hours - lawyer
Armenia, Iran  Defense Ministers discuss regional security issuesArmenia, Iran  Defense Ministers discuss regional security issues
Prosperous Armenia Party  leader  interrogated by  Anti-Corruption CommitteeProsperous Armenia Party  leader  interrogated by  Anti-Corruption Committee
Oppositionist: Pashinyan  repressing the opposition to show Aliyev and Erdogan his loyalty to the agreements made with them Oppositionist: Pashinyan  repressing the opposition to show Aliyev and Erdogan his loyalty to the agreements made with them 
AAC followers from all over the world form Pan-Armenian Council for  the Protection of the Armenian ChurchAAC followers from all over the world form Pan-Armenian Council for  the Protection of the Armenian Church
Armenia, Greece discuss recent developments in  South CaucasusArmenia, Greece discuss recent developments in  South Caucasus
Zakharova: Armenian side was offered concrete steps on  stop listsZakharova: Armenian side was offered concrete steps on  stop lists
Briefing on Swiss Peace Initiative for Artsakh  in US CongressBriefing on Swiss Peace Initiative for Artsakh  in US Congress
Lawyer: Nowadays, any political process in Armenia is accompanied by  interference from the state apparatusLawyer: Nowadays, any political process in Armenia is accompanied by  interference from the state apparatus
Armenia to tighten criminal liability for attacks on doctorsArmenia to tighten criminal liability for attacks on doctors
Armenia`s Deputy FM, UN official exchange views on UN80 initiativeArmenia`s Deputy FM, UN official exchange views on UN80 initiative
Court discussing MP`s arrestCourt discussing MP`s arrest
Armenian premier, Azerbaijani president to meet in Abu Dhabi Armenian premier, Azerbaijani president to meet in Abu Dhabi 
Civil Contract party board meeting take place Civil Contract party board meeting take place 
Judge`s decision on Samvel Karapetyan case one more incitement to legal absurdity - lawyer Judge`s decision on Samvel Karapetyan case one more incitement to legal absurdity - lawyer 
U.S. Sec of State mentioned Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization `for a  reason` - Tammy BruceU.S. Sec of State mentioned Armenian-Azerbaijani normalization `for a  reason` - Tammy Bruce
Azerbaijan`s government plan to take control of Armenia under  humanitarian disguise being executed - Arman Tatoyan Azerbaijan`s government plan to take control of Armenia under  humanitarian disguise being executed - Arman Tatoyan 
Expecting 2026 elections amid promises given to external forces  extremely risky - opposition MPExpecting 2026 elections amid promises given to external forces  extremely risky - opposition MP
Tashir Pizza allowed to resume operation in Abovyan Tashir Pizza allowed to resume operation in Abovyan 
Armenian premier sends congratulatory message to president of Argentina Armenian premier sends congratulatory message to president of Argentina 
Law-enforcers confiscate large batch of drugs Law-enforcers confiscate large batch of drugs 
Aliyev regime continues destroying Artsakh Armenians` property in Stepanakert Aliyev regime continues destroying Artsakh Armenians` property in Stepanakert 
Situation surrounding ENA has political implication - Tashir Situation surrounding ENA has political implication - Tashir 
Armenia`s authorities seeking to neutralize all rivals and form  atmosphere of fear - expert Armenia`s authorities seeking to neutralize all rivals and form  atmosphere of fear - expert 
Armenian authorities prove quality of all before unlawfulness -  Larisa Alaverdyan Armenian authorities prove quality of all before unlawfulness -  Larisa Alaverdyan 
Forest fire prevention discussed at RA Ministry of Interior Forest fire prevention discussed at RA Ministry of Interior 
Washington hopes for peace deal between Armenia, Azerbaijan soon Washington hopes for peace deal between Armenia, Azerbaijan soon 
Aram I calls for putting end to destructive atmosphere in Armenia Aram I calls for putting end to destructive atmosphere in Armenia 
Artur Sargsyan stripped of his parliamentary immunityArtur Sargsyan stripped of his parliamentary immunity
Political scientist: Pashinyan`s government acknowledges that it is  impossible to simultaneously oppose two non-agreement-capable  opposition centersPolitical scientist: Pashinyan`s government acknowledges that it is  impossible to simultaneously oppose two non-agreement-capable  opposition centers
World Council of Churches expresses deep concern regarding recent  developments involving the Armenian Apostolic ChurchWorld Council of Churches expresses deep concern regarding recent  developments involving the Armenian Apostolic Church
Armenian Deputy FM participates in the Special Session of the  Assembly of States Parties to the Rome Statute on the Review of the  Draft Amendments on the Crime of AggressionArmenian Deputy FM participates in the Special Session of the  Assembly of States Parties to the Rome Statute on the Review of the  Draft Amendments on the Crime of Aggression
Armenian Ombudsperson signals a violation of lawyers` right to access  their clients in the preliminary investigation bodyArmenian Ombudsperson signals a violation of lawyers` right to access  their clients in the preliminary investigation body
 RA Prime Minister visits Kotayk branch of  SOS Children`s Villages RA Prime Minister visits Kotayk branch of SOS Children`s Villages
Jerusalem`s Armenian Quarter  most targeted by anti- Christian  incidents in Israel - ReportJerusalem`s Armenian Quarter  most targeted by anti- Christian  incidents in Israel - Report
Narek Karapetyan: Authorities want to start a pre-planned process  against Tashir GroupNarek Karapetyan: Authorities want to start a pre-planned process  against Tashir Group
Armenia officially joins UN Countering Terrorism Travel Program Armenia officially joins UN Countering Terrorism Travel Program 
Vice Speaker: The government must respond to threats, otherwise it  will lead to chaosVice Speaker: The government must respond to threats, otherwise it  will lead to chaos
No detainees from among ENA staff members - acting CEONo detainees from among ENA staff members - acting CEO
War in Armenia - politician War in Armenia - politician 
Read more



Commented