Wednesday, March 27 2024 13:47

ArmInfo. Armenia is pivoting to the West. The European Union (EU) has an interest in supporting  Armenia in this pivot, reads the report entitled "Deepening EU-Armenia relations: More Europe in Armenia; More Armenia in Europe." The report was drafted by the Friends of Armenia Network, a high-level group launched in 2023 by former Danish Prime Minister and NATO Secretary General Anders Fogh Rasmussen to galvanise support for democratic Armenia and promote peace in the South Caucasus. It includes former prime ministers, parliamentarians, and diplomats. 

Now is the moment to take bold steps. In short, we need to see "More  Europe in Armenia; more Armenia in Europe". 

 Ultimately, nothing less than offering Armenia EU candidate status  will match Armenia's strategic reorientation and make its pivot  irreversible. But for this offer to be meaningful, the EU will have  to back up its geopolitical commitment with real, substantial support  to Armenia - not least to counter Russia's rection.

 The authors of this report therefore foresee a gradual approach to  enhancing relations between the EU and Armenia, with the ultimate  goal of Armenia inside the EU. The EU's offer to Armenia should be  divided into three phases: 

o First, the EU should indicate that it is ready to offer Armenia  candidate status. This would be an important signal and commitment to  Armenia and its strategic orientation. It is the logical continuation  of offering candidate status to Georgia, as well as deciding to open  accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova.

o In parallel, the EU and Armenia should review and update the  existing Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with  a view to enhancing relations. An updated CEPA should be used to  build up Armenian resilience and lessen its dependence on Russia,  notably in the spheres of security, energy, and trade. The annexes  should be upgraded and enhanced, including providing free trade in  certain service sectors, such as IT.

o Secondly, once Armenia has reached an adequate level of resilience,  the EU should deepen economic ties by negotiating a Deep and  Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) with Armenia. This would  further help Armenia shift its strategic orientation, notably in its  economy, and move Armenia closer to the EU. In parallel, Armenia  should withdraw from the customs union of the Russian-led Eurasian  Economic Union (EAEU) and eventually leave the EAEU altogether. 

o A third phase should consist of Armenia starting accession  negotiations. The final destination of these negotiations should be  Armenia's full membership of the EU.

 Armenia's Western pivot does not come without risk or cost. Yerevan  is well aware of the stakes involved. For the EU, the most immediate  priority should be to help Armenia create a "safety net" in  strategically vulnerable sectors. The EU should offer security  cooperation, notably through the European Peace Facility and enhanced  border management, to help Armenia diversify its security  architecture. This would increase Armenia's deterrence, both against  Azerbaijan launching another attack and against Russian hybrid  attacks.

 At the same time, the EU should step up its support for Armenia's  effort to increase its resilience and decrease its dependence on  Russia, notably in trade, food security, and energy security.

 The Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement still has  value but is limited in terms of what it can provide for a deeper  relationship between the EU and Armenia. The EU should help Armenia  reorient and diversify its trade relations.

The full report in available here:  https://rasmussenglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/03/FAN-Report-  Deepening-EU-Armenia-relations.pdf?fbclid=IwAR2pp8P2lEbgU3uEgWz3Q-  siqm8bzjgV8I73P7tbdUIq1vI_gM6CJlsxFTM_aem_AR8CJ4mN_GQVbSQfAS3ipfKHi4hb3one5ABuk7A NQlZTVmSyaZ-J80KTlt88pCRs7sF8FtTSFwRiUeHCL0pfxTcY