Saturday, March 21 2015 08:47

 

President
of Armenia Serzh Sargsyan has recently expressed his concern over Russia
selling arms to Azerbaijan. He spotlighted that “the
soldier on the border realizes that they try to destroy him with Russian
weapons.” It was for the first time that the president voiced the issue the
Armenian society has been concerned over for many years. What do you think of
all this?

 

Serzh Sargsyan has addressed rather flammable a topic
of the Russian-Armenian relations. This is a topic Armenia treats rather
radically and emotionally, while Russia approaches it more practically and
rationally. Some Armenian political scientists tried to explain Russians in
2012-2013 that Armenia's interests required rapprochement with the West leaving
Russia as the guarantor of its military security and the biggest economic
donor. Therefore Armenia was working towards the Association Agreement with the
EU and had no intention to join the Russian-led Customs Union. Such option was
normal and would meet Armenia's interests, but the reality has changed. In the
current situation, it appears to Armenia that Russia must more decisively
insist on Armenia's positions in accordance with the strategic alliance.
Armenia expects Russia to stop selling weapons to Azerbaijan, recognize Nagorny
Karabakh and much more Armenia itself cannot do. When Russia does not do it,
Yerevan feels offended."

How does Moscow see the situation?

In Moscow they perceive the situation with Russian
arms supply to Azerbaijan in a different way. In Russia they are sure that if
Moscow openly takes Armenia's side, it will escalate the Karabakh conflict and
deprive Russia of the levers of influence on the conflict's management. Moscow
reminds Armenia that Russia is a friend of Armenia, but it is not an enemy of
Azerbaijan either. After all, Azerbaijan is neither North Korea nor Somali.
Azerbaijan is not under the regime of international sanctions and is free to
buy any weapons, except the mass proliferation weapons. If Baku buys no arms
from Russia, it will buy arms from other countries and, in this regard, no
matter what tanks the Azeri soldiers will use to destroy Armenian tanks in the
conflict zone.  Strange though it may
sound, if these tanks are Russian and if Russia and Moscow have good relations,
Russia will be more involved in the conflict's management and there will be
less chances that the sporadic fires and provocations may grow into a
large-scale war.

Do you mean that the financial side
of the arms deals is of secondary importance?

The financial side of the Russian weapons sale to
Azerbaijan is another important issue. 
Russia sells arms on market prices and gets good proceeds from it.  We
understand that Armenia does not care wherefrom Russia gets money to supply the
Armenian army with advanced weapons free of charge or on very low prices in
accordance with the Russian-Armenian Agreement of Military Cooperation.
However, Russia does care for it. To have a bread on the table, it is necessary
to earn money to buy it.

In other words, the preferential
arms supply to Armenia certainly depends also on Russia’s arms deals with
Azerbaijan, doesn’t it?

It is not a secret that Russia earns money to arm the
Armenian army also from the sale of weapons in the word market, including to
Azerbaijan. To be clear, if Moscow stops doing it for emotional reasons, it
will get less incomes and will no longer be able to produce and supply so much
weapons to the Armenian army. Meanwhile, Azerbaijan will continue buying arms
from other countries. Will it help anyone?

It turns out that there is no alternative to Moscow’s
'arms policy' towards Armenia and Azerbaijan…

We realize that Moscow's stand is not perfect and is
very complicate. It is incredibly hard to be involved into the conflict between
two historically bellicose countries and to try to remain a friend for both the
parties. In many similar situations, England just stopped any efforts and left
the region. It is very costly for Moscow and triggers criticism of Yerevan and
Baku. However, Russia just can take no other stand in the current state of
affairs.

 

Any alternative will be worse, and for Armenia, first.
In this light, Armenia should leave emotions at the door and think soberly; be
wiser not louder.  I understand that
domestic emotions will not fade away, but if there is sober mind, sometimes, it
is better not to speak of such issues in politics. Russia and Armenia are
sisters. We have what to keep silence about.