Friday, July 3 2015 12:05

Stratfor private investigative-analytical company has published an article entitled "How Armenia's Protests Could Threaten Stability" after the Armenian government's decision to increase the electricity price sparked nation-wide protests in country.  
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"Since the Euromaidan movement, Russia has become sensitive to the possibility of escalation.  Perhaps to prevent a replay, Moscow has engaged in a flurry of activities to draw closer to Yerevan, such as granting $200 million in financing for Armenia to purchase Russian arms and letting Armenian courts try a Russian soldier accused of murdering an Armenian family, a case that had sparked protests earlier in 2015. But while Moscow is worried, the Armenian government appears willing to wait and see or even to concede on the electricity hike issue to avoid the unstable and unpredictable environment that would accompany the use of force against the protests," Stratfor writes.  According to the source, currently the protests have little significance on the strategic level. The situation could change if demonstrators can sustain the movement or if they clash with police.  Continued disruptions could lead to a police crackdown. Protesters might also decide to abandon their nonviolent methods. So far, the government has shown considerable restraint since the original crackdown on June 23, but any change in tactics could enflame the protests and escalate the situation, the article reads.

"Public protests are frequent in Armenia and so far do not pose a significant threat to the government.  More important, in spite of widespread comparisons to Ukraine's Euromaidan movement Armenia's electricity protests do not threaten Russian interests. The demonstrations, however, might grow if clashes between protesters and security forces turn violent. Yerevan likely has the Euromaidan analogy in mind and will seek to accommodate or wait out the protesters to avoid such a scenario.

"...Armenia has a higher tolerance for public demonstrations than other states in the former Soviet Union, making such tolerance a key factor in assessing the current protest movement. In a typical year, Armenia has several demonstrations on numerous economic, security or military issues andgeneral opposition to the government. Some of these protests have brought tens of thousands of people into the streets.  Still, they typically do not pose a major threat to the government or challenge the strong position of Armenian President Serzh Sarkisian, who has ruled the country since 2008," Stratfor writes.