Пятница, 26 Декабря 2014

Степанян Давид

В 2015-м Россия продолжит паритетную политику торговли оружием с Арменией и Азербайджаном

В 2015-м Россия продолжит паритетную политику торговли оружием с Арменией и Азербайджаном

2014-й ознаменовался небывалым обострением на
армяно-азербайджанской границе и большей чем когда-либо пробуксовкой
переговорного процесса. Поделитесь Вашим прогнозом на 2015-й.


 


Обострение
2014-го года вряд ли заслуживает эпитета «небывалое», хотя гибель
военнослужащих и уничтожение мощной военной техники, безусловно, являются
чрезвычайными происшествиями, способными в неблагоприятных обстоятельствах
послужить спусковым крючком для возобновления сторонами полномасштабных военных
действий. Другое дело, что время таких действий, которые неизбежно выльются в
резкое обострение ситуации во всем регионе, в уходящем году еще не пришло.
Переговорный процесс также буксовал не более, чем все предыдущие годы, как и
бывает всегда, когда отсутствует предмет переговоров. Полагаю, что 2015-й не
принесет радикальных прорывов ни на военном, ни на дипломатическом фронте. При
этом скатывание ситуации к войне более вероятно, чем политические победы, в
силу нарастания общей неадекватности и неуправляемости, как в регионе, так и в
мире в целом, наблюдавшейся на протяжении всего уходящего года. К сожалению,
эта тенденция, по всей видимости, в обозримом будущем будет только усиливаться.


 


В 2015-м Баку выделяет на
военные статьи 18% - до $ 5 млрд. всех бюджетных ассигнований. Понятно, что
надеяться в неблагоприятных для России экономических условиях на отказ
российского ВПК от поставок Азербайджану ударной техники было бы наивно. Тем не
менее, более болезненной темы в российско-армянских отношениях стратегического
партнёрства сегодня не существует, причем как для западников, так и для лояльно настроенных к
Москве армянских кругов. Насколько целесообразно на этом фоне, на Ваш взгляд,
продолжение “оружейной” политики Кремля в отношении Армении и
Азербайджана?  


 


Соглашусь,
что Россия продолжит паритетную политику торговли оружием с обеими сторонами
конфликта, и дело не в экономических условиях, а в стремлении сохранить в
регионе статус-кво. Российская политика на Кавказе в целом характеризуется
стереотипностью, неготовностью к неожиданным шагам в любом направлении,
неумением использовать так называемую «мягкую силу» для постепенного изменения
общественного мнения в том или ином государстве, например, Азербайджане, в свою
пользу. На текущий момент это данность, и я не вижу здесь возможности
кардинальных изменений.


 


Отношения между Россией и Турцией вышли на совершенно
новый уровень, который в свете глобального противостояния Россия-Запад трудно
назвать экономическим. Каковы, на Ваш взгляд, могут быть его перспективы для
сторон, а также для Армении и Азербайджана?  
      


 


Действительно,
российско-турецкие отношения приобретают характер стратегического партнерства,
в том числе в политической сфере. О желательности такого развития событий
неоднократно высказывались многие эксперты, как в России, так и в Турции. Это
отражает и глубинные устремления значительной части российского и турецкого
общества. Исторические пережитки былых времен не должны влиять и, по большому
счету, не влияют на политику сегодняшнего дня. При этом некоторым российским
политикам стоило бы брать пример с Эрдогана в плане отстаивания национальных
интересов своей страны.  Разумеется, говорить
о том, что межгосударственные отношения более ничто не омрачает, мягко говоря,
преждевременно. На территории Турции нашли приют ряд сепаратистов и радикальных
исламистов, боровшихся против российского государства, в том числе
непосредственно на его территории и с оружием в руках. Проводятся
соответствующие массовые мероприятия, достаточно вспомнить два «кавказских
форума», прошедших в Стамбуле в 2012 и 2014 гг. Действует «благотворительная»
организация Imkander, собирающая под свое крыло наиболее активных
антироссийских деятелей из числа представителей проживающих в Турции кавказских
диаспор (кстати, еще в прошлом году она активно интересовалась и Крымом). Все
это если не прямо поддерживается, то и не запрещается турецкими властями, и в
этой сфере Москва имеет полное право требовать от Анкары ужесточения позиции по
отношению к врагам России. С другой стороны, российско-турецкое сближение в
сфере выработки общей внешнеполитической линии, направленной на противодействие
западным и, в первую очередь, американским попыткам давления на РФ и Турцию,
можно только приветствовать. Конечно, это не означает отказа или пересмотра
Россией союзнических обязательств по отношению к Армении, как и внезапного
поворота Москвы в сторону Баку. Закавказье, не говоря уже о Северном Кавказе,
было и остается зоной исключительных российских интересов, и Турции и впредь придется
с этим считаться.


 


Судя по последним трендам, противостояние Россия-Запад
усиливается день ото дня. Можно ли надеяться на какие-то подвижки в обратном
направлении в 2015-м, учитывая появление соответствующих тенденций в странах
ЕС? 


 


Противостояние
России и США перешло если не в решающую, то в близкую к этому стадию. Запад в
своей американской ипостаси окончательно сорвал с себя маску доброго дядюшки,
учащего демократии неразумную туземную публику для ее же блага. Конечной целью
западного давления на Россию является ликвидация нашей страны, во всяком
случае, в статусе суверенного государства. Как сантименты, так и отступления на
этом пути вряд ли возможны. Что касается Европы, то ее политика настолько
несамостоятельна и зависима от американской, что рассматривать ее отдельно,
пожалуй, не имеет смысла. Конечно, хотелось бы надеяться на общеевропейское
«восстание масс», которые, осознав, к какому краху ведут Европу ее же
собственные «элиты», сметут их под знаменами дружбы с Россией, но это, скорее,
из области фантастики. Вместе с тем, переход российско-американского
противостояния в максимально жесткую фазу лишает региональных игроков широты
маневра. Время метания между возможными, конечно, лишь в теории,
геополитическими партнерами окончательно подошло к концу. Настало время полной
геополитической ясности. Думаю, однако, что всем это только на пользу.
Безнравственная политика «и вашим, и нашим», которую стыдливо называют
«многовекторной» и т.п., никого еще до добра не доводила.


 


Кем, на Ваш взгляд, могла быть спровоцирована
террористическая акция в Грозном 4 декабря, в ходе которой погибли 14 полицейских.
Кому выгодна встряска Северного Кавказа?


 


Вина
за теракт в Грозном лежит, что очевидно, на радикально-исламистском
террористическом подполье. Да, в последние годы правоохранительные органы
добились впечатляющих успехов в силовом противостоянии радикалам, к тому же
немалая часть из них и их потенциального резерва отправилась на войну в Сирии и
Ираке, однако утверждать, что данная опасность полностью снята с повестки дня,
безусловно, рано. К сожалению, экстремисты сумели продемонстрировать свои
возможности даже в такой милитаризованной и четко понимающей опасность исламского
радикализма республике, как Чечня. Не сомневаюсь, что из этого будут сделаны серьезные
выводы, причем не столько в ЧР, сколько в некоторых других республиках как
Кавказа, так и Поволжья, где в последнее время вновь обретает силу нездоровая тенденция
замалчивания реальных проблем. Отрицание тех или иных сложностей делает
невозможным их разрешение, что будет иметь самые негативные последствия. В
целом же попытка дестабилизации Северного Кавказа выгодна все тем же
геополитическим соперникам и конкурентам России – США, которые опосредованно и
стоят за кровавой акцией в Грозном. Однако на дворе не девяностые и не
двухтысячные. От проектов «взрыва Кавказа» придется отказаться, и чем скорее,
тем будет лучше для всех.


 

ДОБАВИТЬ КОММЕНТАРИЙ
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Manvel Sargsyan: Oligarchic order was broken in Armenia, but the  threat of a return to authoritarianism remains.(video)Manvel Sargsyan: Oligarchic order was broken in Armenia, but the  threat of a return to authoritarianism remains.(video)
Expert: Only four political forces have chances to be elected to the Armenian parliamentExpert: Only four political forces have chances to be elected to the Armenian parliament
Victor Nadein-Raevsky: The people of Azerbaijan are not ready to  realize the mistakes of the past (video)Victor Nadein-Raevsky: The people of Azerbaijan are not ready to  realize the mistakes of the past (video)
Andranik Kocharyan states Armenian Second President`s Defense  deliberately delays lawsuitAndranik Kocharyan states Armenian Second President`s Defense  deliberately delays lawsuit
Yerevan: Azerbaijan wants to get Artsakh without its indigenous  populationYerevan: Azerbaijan wants to get Artsakh without its indigenous  population
Expert: I don`t understand why the second President of Armenia Robert  Kocharian is charged only in the case of March 1, 2008Expert: I don`t understand why the second President of Armenia Robert  Kocharian is charged only in the case of March 1, 2008
Israeli political scientist: Turkey`s obvious aggressiveness gives  Armenia a stabilizing importanceIsraeli political scientist: Turkey`s obvious aggressiveness gives  Armenia a stabilizing importance
Politician and statesman Masis Mayilyan’s election as Artsakh president is required for Armenia`s breakthroughPolitician and statesman Masis Mayilyan’s election as Artsakh president is required for Armenia`s breakthrough
Robert Kocharian: I am ready to continue the fight even from the  prison cellRobert Kocharian: I am ready to continue the fight even from the  prison cell
Masis Mayilyan praised the efforts of members of the Committee on  Armenian Issues of the US Congress in support of a peaceful  settlement of the Karabakh conflictMasis Mayilyan praised the efforts of members of the Committee on  Armenian Issues of the US Congress in support of a peaceful  settlement of the Karabakh conflict
Analyst: In the pursuit of sensationalism, national security must be  kept in mindAnalyst: In the pursuit of sensationalism, national security must be  kept in mind
Pashinyan invited all Armenians of the world to celebrate New Year  and Christmas in ArmeniaPashinyan invited all Armenians of the world to celebrate New Year  and Christmas in Armenia
Chinese Embassy in Armenia launches Chinese Embassy in Armenia launches "Discover China" contest - winner  will have the opportunity to see China 
George Tsereteli called on the parties to the Karabakh conflict to  resolve disagreements and find a common languageGeorge Tsereteli called on the parties to the Karabakh conflict to  resolve disagreements and find a common language
Stepanakert called the statement of Georgian Foreign Ministry on the  local elections in Artsakh stereotyped Stepanakert called the statement of Georgian Foreign Ministry on the  local elections in Artsakh stereotyped 
YPC President: Decision of the Constitutional Court on the YPC President: Decision of the Constitutional Court on the "Kocharian  case" may be followed by agreements with external forces.
Russian President congratulates jailed second Armenian president on  jubileeRussian President congratulates jailed second Armenian president on  jubilee
Armenian public is concerned about uranium reserves in Amulsar fieldArmenian public is concerned about uranium reserves in Amulsar field
Over 10 years, 495 children were adopted by foreign citizens from 6  orphanages in Armenia, and only 116 by local citizensOver 10 years, 495 children were adopted by foreign citizens from 6  orphanages in Armenia, and only 116 by local citizens
By creating a counterbalance to the 102nd base, Turkey will claim for ousting Russia from the South CaucasusBy creating a counterbalance to the 102nd base, Turkey will claim for ousting Russia from the South Caucasus
First skyscraper to be built in Yerevan
Supporters of the second president of Armenia demand from the  Ombudsman to declare Kocharyan a political prisoner and protect his  rightsSupporters of the second president of Armenia demand from the  Ombudsman to declare Kocharyan a political prisoner and protect his  rights
View from Baku: Pashinyan actually invited Azerbaijan to recognize  the accession of Karabakh with a View from Baku: Pashinyan actually invited Azerbaijan to recognize  the accession of Karabakh with a "corridor" to Armenia in exchange  for other territories
Yerevan responds to Baku`s statementYerevan responds to Baku`s statement
Official Baku categorically rejects Pashinyan`s statement that  Karabakh is part of ArmeniaOfficial Baku categorically rejects Pashinyan`s statement that  Karabakh is part of Armenia
Hovhannes Igityan: Robert Kocharyan has never been a political  leader. Even being the president of Artsakh and ArmeniaHovhannes Igityan: Robert Kocharyan has never been a political  leader. Even being the president of Artsakh and Armenia
French Embassy provides support in 3D modeling of Armenia`s  historical and religious sites French Embassy provides support in 3D modeling of Armenia`s  historical and religious sites 
Edmon Marukyan: We are doing everything to ensure that there is more  America in ArmeniaEdmon Marukyan: We are doing everything to ensure that there is more  America in Armenia
Nikol Pashinyan told why there is no progress in the Karabakh  settlementNikol Pashinyan told why there is no progress in the Karabakh  settlement
NKR Foreign Minister: Future President of Artsakh should not be  associated with money and weaponsNKR Foreign Minister: Future President of Artsakh should not be  associated with money and weapons
Ardshinbank Increases the Number of Branches Operating on SaturdaysArdshinbank Increases the Number of Branches Operating on Saturdays
29 PACE MPs appealed to RA authorities to ensure rights and freedoms  of LGBT community29 PACE MPs appealed to RA authorities to ensure rights and freedoms  of LGBT community
Head of Migration Service of Armenia: One of the main tasks of our   service is the integration of refugees into the life of the countryHead of Migration Service of Armenia: One of the main tasks of our service is the integration of refugees into the life of the country