Monday, December 9 2013

Mr. Piontkovsky, did Russia manage to
torpedo EU’s projects for the post-Soviet countries? Ukraine was the last in
that list and even Yanukovich has already begun thinking of the Customs
Union. 

I think such
methods of Moscow will have no significant result from the strategic point of
view. Moscow will achieve nothing except hatred of its neighbors. Look at
Armenia. They summoned the president of Armenia, screwed his arms, probably,
threatening with no more military assistance in the Karabakh conflict, and made
him suspend the Association with the EU and apply for accession to the Customs
Union. I think it is absurd. Where is Armenia, and where is the Customs
Union?  It is not clear what kind of
trade is possible inside the Union. Look back at the reaction of Kazakhstan and
Belarus to Armenia’s decision. Lukashenko and Nazarbayev don’t like such
political tricks of Putin either. Aspiration for enlargement of the Customs
Union implies no economic benefits for Russia. These are mad imperial ambitions
and colossal efforts to create a new Soviet Union. These are Moscow’s inferiority
complexes. They can exert pressure on the post-Soviet countries, but no one
needs a ‘chieftain’ in Moscow. Lukashenko will never agree to become secretary
of the Byelorussian regional committee. It is the Kremlin’s fight for influence
that gives birth of hatred of all its partners. Russia has no opportunity to
become a center of positive unification. 

Maybe, this is because of the political
system…

Not only political, but also economic
system. This is a criminal capitalism. This is not a market system. This is a
system with no property institution. In this light, Armenia and Russia
have much in common. Ukraine and Georgia somehow tried to get out of that
system and make changes inside their countries. An integration union must be
attractive, first of all. Meanwhile, neo-imperial ambitions, criminal-oligarchy
cannot make integration attractive. Armenia, Georgia and Ukraine strive for the
European Union. But for Moscow’s pressure, these countries would never abandon
the Association with Europe. 

Notwithstanding all the difficulties, the European model is
more attractive today, whereas the criminal Russian capitalism is doomed.  It is absolutely obsolete. Even the forecasts
of the Russian Economy Ministry, not the oppositionists, demonstrate that until
2030 the Russian economy growth rates will be lower than the global economy
growth rates. One thing is clear. Everything is rotten inside the power in
Russia and it is impossible to make any forecasts. The system may collapse at
any moment, but may even last for several years. The system does not work and
there is no internal dynamics. And this dead system still seeks to keep its close neighbors under
influence.  The idea of the Customs Union
is not good for Armenia. How could an idea of integration with criminal economy
be good? 

It is widely believed that the West has
actually left the “Eastern Partnership” countries and what one can do now is to
follow how Moscow is gradually closing the European integration project.

Against
the background of Moscow's offensive political behavior the West looks
cowardly, miserable and helpless.  We saw
Obama humiliated by Putin in the Syrian crisis. There have been no such
low-level leaders in West for a long time. These are small and cowardly
politicians and Putin is treating them as small boys. They do not want any
troubles. Putin dispatches the Western politicians better than the former USSR
member states. Lukashenko, Nazarbayev and Aliyev are resisting him somehow.
Armenia's situation is the tightest due to its 100% dependence on Moscow.
Armenia has been simply forced into a corner due to its geographic location and
the Karabakh conflict.

You have mentioned just objective reasons
of Armenia’s dependence on Moscow.  Don’t
you think that our leadership is guilty in that?

I
cannot say that Armenian leaders lack patriotism. They are known to have
participated in the Karabakh movement. But they have chosen a 100% pro-Russian
strategy. Look at Azerbaijan. Ilham Aliyev is conducting a more flexible
policy; it is maneuvering between the West and Russia. As for Armenia, it has
forced itself into a geopolitical corner and I think everyone understands that.

 Will Armenia’s accession to the
Customs Union has any impact of the Karabakh conflict’s resolution?

 

Belarus and Kazakhstan openly declared
that they do not want to spoil relations with Azerbaijan. They will agree only
when Baku has nothing against Karabakh’s accession to the Customs Union, which
is impossible. Yerevan has found itself in an awkward situation.  Your president was forced to refuse the
Association Agreement with the EU. It has turned out that no one welcomes him
at the Customs Union either.

Considering the political system in the
Eastern Partnership countries, wasn’t it clear from the very beginning that
European integration could not be successful?

Why? Georgia, for instance, achieved big
successes in democratic, political, and law-enforcement reforms under
Saakashvili.  Georgia’s experience could
be exemplary for the other post-Soviet countries. Even Saakashvili’s opponents
in Russia admired his police reform. 
That is why Moscow made such colossal efforts to overthrow Saakashvili
and replace him with its minion Bidzina Ivanishvili. The latter, in turn, stole
criminal money from Russia to bribe voters in Georgia