Tuesday, June 4 2013

Judging
from recent disagreements in UN Security Council and from reaction of Iran and Israel, Syrian conflict has been
gradually developing towards a new field. What impulses we have to wait for around
the events in Syria
in the near future?

  If we compare the situation in Syria and Iraq, we may come to the conclusion
according to which a new form of genocide on the basis of self-annihilation has
been launched in this region.

That is
developing stably, day by day, against the background of degradation of
statehood. And in this context, it is very much important to find a customer,
thanks to which the machinery was launched. This is a new form of genocide
which finds no room in the rules and ideas. Today it is very much difficult to
name one customer-country. Everything is closely connected with each other, and
several countries, such as, Qatar
and Saudi Arabia,
as well as transnational companies play a great part in similar issues. As for
me, I like Germany's stance,
which unlike France,
voted against the anti-Syrian resolution and occupied  a rather abstained stance in the Syrian
conflict.

 There
is information that Turkey is
trying to resolve the “Armenian issue” in Syria,
via ruining of Armenian churches and forcing Armenians leave Syria, which gave them shelter after
the genocide…

 The
successors of the victims of the Genocide of Armenians in Ottoman Turkey are
now feeling the same in Syria
again due to Turkey.
Turkey actively uses Syrian
rebels to oust Armenians from Syria
by burning their shops and houses. Six Armenian churches have already been
burnt, and only one Armenian Church has remained there.  Armenians are reluctant to escape to find
refuge. A secret subdivision of Turkish commandos together with Syrian fighters
resorts to violence against the Armenian community. In such a way in Syria, Turkey tries to settle also another
painful problem for it i.e. the Armenian Cause.

Our
compatriots bear the west-Armenian cultural and civilization code. The
communities in the Middle East greatly contributed to preservation of
Armenians, the Armenian civilization and culture in the countries of the
Eastern and even Western Europe, and America.  Now when representatives of the Armenian
communities in Syria and
Middle East began actively migrating to Europe, North and South
America, we are losing our very important national segment.
Suffice it is say that the situation in Syria
implies that not only Armenians and Christians generally, but also the Syrian
alawis will have no place in the new Syria in case of a negative
scenario.

 What
is the difference between the situation in Syria and the “Arab revolutions”?

 There is a
typical war in Syria
and not just fight of the opposition or local rebels. He said that the number
of Syrian citizens in the groupings fighting against the government troops does
not exceed 15%-20%, according to experts. 
All the remaining fighters are mercenaries from Libya, Qatar,
Saudi Arabia, and other
regimes of the Middle East as well as citizens of some western countries and
post-Soviet states, for instance, Azerbaijan.  NATO Special Services help those forces via Turkey,
first of all. In other words, it is Turkey
that actively fights against Syria
and it was Turkish professional soldiers that were killed or captured in Syria
by the Government troops

The
machinery, with a help of which Iraq residents were killing another residents
of Iraq, and Arabs another Arabs was launched just in Iraq, and more than half
a million people left the country. 
Neither UN not other international human rights protection organizations
dispute on this. There is practically no Armenian in the Arab sector of Iraq after the
American operations in this country, some of them found shelter in the Iraqi
Kurdistan. The governmental troops in Syria thanks to the Iraqi, Russian
and indirect Chinese support have succeeded in the fight against rebels
supported by the Western secret services. However, even this success will not
prevent Syria's
degradation like a state, as the life in this country was broken and about 1,2
mln people left it, and the number of victims are more than 80 thsd people. As
for economy, it practically does not develop in this country. 

 Who is
the customer?

  Today it is
very much difficult to name one customer-country. Everything is closely
connected with each other, and several countries, such as, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, as well as
transnational companies play a great part in similar issues. As for me, I like Germany's stance, which unlike France, voted against the
anti-Syrian resolution and occupied  a
rather abstained stance in the Syrian conflict.  The Americans themselves are very much
concerned about the growing affect of Al-Quida in Syria. The processes in Syria differ from those in Libya, Tunis, Egypt and even Iraq, in which external forces did
not take part in the organized way. Whereas, Iran,
Russia and China have in fact come forward to
support Assad and are for peaceful settlement of the Syrian conflict. And in
this case, which is developing near Armenia's
borders, Turkey takes an
active part, as well as Azerbaijan,
the military bands of which have been fighting against the governmental troops
in Syria.

 How
will extra activeness of Turkey
and Azerbaijan in Syria affect the relations of Ankara
and Baku with Moscow?

 The obvious participation of Turkey and especially Azerbaijan
in the Syrian conflict does not at all promote development of their relations
with Moscow.
Today Turkey and its close
ally Azerbaijan
have felt themselves very much independent players and even let themselves to
ask Russians leave Gabala. As a response, Moscow
stopped exploiting Baku-Novorosiysk oil pipeline and limited military equipment
delivery to Azerbaijan.
All this is evidence of the fact that the relations between Baku
and Moscow have
a tendency of worsening. These relations are not those that used to be two years
ago.  Of course, good words are voiced
over the visits to Moscow but they can hardly
make correction in the realpolitik between Moscow
and Baku.

All this
cannot but put Armenia on
the alert, as Turkey
feeling itself a superpower of the regional level in case of success at the
Syrian-Iranian front, may make any even inadequate steps. The Turks are not the
obedient members of NATO which they used to be during the years of the
"cold war". And today having a strong army they can allows themselves
the independent steps too. For its part, Azerbaijan
under the protection of such a boss feels itself rather free, and the rhetoric
of the official Baku
is evidence of that.

 
 How
may it affect the Karabakh settlement taking into consideration the fact that Russia still
remains the key mediator of the Karabakh conflict?

 
 I  advise to look for the answer only in the
statements made by the Russian officials, for instance, the statement made by
CSTO secretary general Nikolay Bordyzha. At the same time, I  especially remembered the statement made by
president Dmitriy Medvedev long ago, who advised "not to act in the way,
which will force Russia
again settle all the problems for 5 days". In this context, I think the
allied relations with Russia
and the CSTO membership are an extra guarantee for Armenia, that any external
aggression will have a rebuff. It is good that Baku also seems to understand that.

 On 20
May press-service of Azerbaijani parliament disproved the information disseminated
by several pro-government mass media about the draft law “On the occupied
territories of Azerbaijan”,
which foresees criminal punishment for NGOs and separate citizens of Azerbaijan for cooperation with Armenia. What is
the reason of such information?

 On the basis of the information in mass media
similar to that about an inadequate draft law, I have got an impression that Azerbaijan was
in feverish in the local political context. I have to confess that the
situation is rather unstable at the local front in Azerbaijan. I mean the problems of
the national minorities and the religious trends: vahabits, sunits, and shiits
which have been actively functioning in Azerbaijan. That is to say, a true
religious confrontation has been developing there.  Moreover, Ilham Aliyev oversteps all the possible
and impossible lines. He has been ruling the country on the basis of rather
ambiguous alterations to the Constitution, 
All this is evidence of the fact that the great funds spent by Azerbaijan
for the army, are not at all panacea for all local woes. Ilham Aliyev needs
overstepping the unacceptable lines more and more, the expert said. And an
offer "to make criminally responsible the Azerbaijani citizens which
cooperate with any public organization or structure of Armenia before liberation of the
lands from occupation" is one of such cases of overstepping. And the fact
that the given draft law was not submitted for discussion in Azerbaijani
parliament, may be explained only by the fact that somebody very smart advised
not to do that. For this reason, the authorities refused the repressions
announced in advance.