Sunday, December 8 2013

 

Here is the first and the most
popular question in Armenia today. What is the goal of Russia’s up-to-date
military hardware supplies to Azerbaijan?   

 

Military and technical cooperation
is a part of the foreign political activity of the states and it helps attain
foreign political goals, enhance the defensive ability and security. Military
and technical cooperation makes direct or indirect impact on the state and
development of the military and political situation, as well as on conflicts.
Article 3 of the Law “On Military and Technical Cooperation” says that the key
goal of Russia’s military and technical cooperation with foreign states is to
strengthen the military and political positions of Russia in different regions
of the world.    

 

Why does Moscow seek to make
Azerbaijan dependent on Russia?

 

Azerbaijan
is gaining an important role in the geo-political fight for the South Caucasus.
Turkey needs Azerbaijan as a
conductor of its Neo-Ottomanism ideology and is therefore attempting to bring
NATO to that country.  This is a threat
for Russia.
So, the Russians are trying to curb these attempts.  For Armenia
and Nagorno-Karabakh it would be good if Azerbaijan
depended on Russia rather
than Turkey.
But I don't think that the Turks will let the Azeris join the Customs Union.

 

 Russian President Vladimir
Putin has announced creation of a joint air defense system with participation
of Russia, Armenia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. Russia
has already a joint air defense system with Armenia. What goals will this new
initiative have and what will it be directed against?

 

Putin's
initiative to create a joint air defense system is a response to the Customs
Union's enlargement. This system is just supposed to ensure the security of the
Union. I don't agree with those claiming that
this system will deprive Armenia
of sovereignty.

 

 Russia is strengthening the
102^nd military base. It is also going to take Erebouni Airport
on lease. The impression is that our allies are strengthening their presence,
not Armenia.
What for is it being done? How does it meet Armenia’s interests?
 

 

The
enlargement of the Russian air force in Armenia comes from the treaty on the
Russian military base prolonged in 2010. 
Before 2010 the base was obliged to guard Armenia's
borders with Turkey and Iran. Now it
will have to also guard the border with Azerbaijan.

 

Why does Moscow keep controlling the
balance of forces between Armenia and Azerbaijan?

 

Presence
in the region helps Russia to fight for the region. Russia's military doctrine says
that all conflicts near its borders pose a threat to its security. And
Nagorno-Karabakh is one of such threats. Russia does not want this conflict
to resume as it is the only great power having a common border with this
region. As regards Russia's
supplying arms to Azerbaijan,
unless the Russians do it, the Israelis and the Ukrainians will take their
place and they will lose their control over Azerbaijan. I don't think that this
will be good for Armenia,
will it?

 

What impact does the “reset” of
relations between the United States and Russia make on Armenia’s role given the
deal on Syria between Washington and Moscow and the new role Iran has assumed
following the Geneva
Agreement with P5+1?  

 

Armenia's role in the region will certainly
change after the latest developments – the US-Russian deal on Syria and the Geneva
agreement on Iran.
Our control of Nagorno-Karabakh is a strong proof of our big role in the
region. Russia's military
base in Armenia
is not only a guarantee of our security, but also a means for the Russians to
enhance their influence in the region. As regards the Nagorno-Karabakh problem,
Russia has never let Armenia down in this matter, and its further
position here will depend on Armenia's
policy.

 

May there be an agreement where Iran agrees to stop
enriching uranium to 20% in exchange for the mediators' promise to force Israel
to join the Nonproliferation Treaty?

 

Israel
and Iran are the key rivals in the region, and a nuclear weapon would certainly
be helpful in this rivalry. But the key factor that caused P5+1 to sign the
Geneva Agreement was the position of Russia,
China and Iran. It was a
kind of a counterbalance to the policy of Turkey
and the United States to
pressure Iran by changing
the regime in its ally, Syria.
So, Israel's
negative response to the agreement was natural. The agreement has given Iran a respite, and this cannot but worry Israel.

 

 When the “cold war” was over,
Turkey lost its role of the advanced guard in NATO and tried to control the
processes in the Middle East. The impression is that the treaties on Syria and Iran
have crossed out Turkey’s
regional ambitions…     

 

In
the very beginning of Ahmet Davutoglu’s "zero problems with
neighbors" policy directed at strengthening of Turkey through
dissemination of Neo-Ottomanism, it was clear that the task exceeds Ankara's
ability. They did not have enough political, military and economic resources
for that. As a result, today Turkey
has ended up with nothing. Its relations with all the countries of the region -
Israel, Egypt, Armenia
and Syria
- have worsened. And today's jactitation of Turkey
from Europe to the East are evidence of an extremely hard geo-political
situation in the country thanks to the political adventurism of Ankara.

 

Turkey and Azerbaijan have a treaty on mutual military support. Can it
be considered legitimate given that Ankara needs NATO’s consent to provide
military aid to Azerbaijan?

 

Certainly,
Turkey has got an
opportunity to show military aid to Azerbaijan within the frames of the
treaty on mutual military support and despite being a NATO member. No
international treaty, including the CSTO, limits any country to show aid to its
partner. NATO and CSTO were set up to protect from aggression directed only
against their members.  Actually, Turkey cannot but consult in the matter of
showing aid to Azerbaijan,
if this aid threatens NATO member-states. 

 

 In other words, will the developments of 1993, when
Turkish armed forces came closer to the border of Armenia, occur again?

 

Actually, they will. At that time the Turks said about
their intention to enter the Karabakh conflict, if the Armenians did not
abandon the attacking operations in Karabakh. 
Marshal Shaposhnikov declared that Turkey's interference in the
Karabakh conflict would result in the third World War. This statement was
followed by the talk of Russia's
defence minister Pavel Grachev with the Turkish president in Istanbul, and everything ended.  

 

Given
the analysis of the current situation, would you assess the
possibility and prospects of new Azerbaijani aggression against Karabakh?

 

The
possibility of the new war in Karabakh has sharply declined because of the
following factors: rising of Russia's role in the world and in the region,
liquidation of the threat of war against Iran and sale of the Russian armament
to Azerbaijan, that allows Moscow to keep Baku under control. As for Armenia's
joining the Customs Union and later the Eurasian Union, it will reduce the
possibility of the war even more taking into consideration the interest of
Russia in Armenia, and the fact that Azerbaijan is beyond these processes. The
moral and psychological climate in the Azerbaijani army is much lower than that
in the Armenian army. The material acquisition by Azerbaijan
should ensure its security in three directions: Armenia,
Turkmenistan and Iran. This
requires forces and funds. Therefore this material acquisition should be
divided into three parts. Meanwhile, by its doctrine Armenia
is a guarantor of the NKR security, and all the strategic facilities and
targets of Azerbaijan
are within the reach of the Armenian firing means. As for Armenia, it is a protecting zone thanks to the
treaties with CSTO and a direct contract with Russia. Finally, the most important
is that Azerbaijan
is not ready for war. For this reason, today to start a new war is equal to
death for Azerbaijan.
They cannot do that physically even irrespective of the military and political
situation.