Tuesday, December 16 2014

The
Russia-West confrontation seems to grow with every coming day. Do you
anticipate any improvements in 2015 given the emerging trends in the EU
countries?

 

 One can and
should hope for positive breakthroughs in the so far growing confrontation of
the West and Russia in 2015. Neither Russia nor the EU gains from that
confrontation, as both the parties are experiencing financial- economic and
political losses.

I
anticipate no drastic changes of the situation so far. The point is that the
U.S. is gaining from the Russia-EU discrepancies that are weakening both the
parties. The United States has all the levers of influence on the European
Union. Not only these are the countries of the former Eastern Europe, but also
some influential forces, power elites, in the key EU countries.  It is the U.S. with its satellites like Carl
Bildt and Donald Tusk that has created the idea of Eastern Partnership and
Associate membership that is fundamentally unsound. They are well aware that
none of those associate member-countries will ever become a full member of the
EU. The United States has achieved its major goal i.e. it has spoiled the
relations of Russia and the EU. The U.S. has finally broken Moldova and Ukraine
from Russia, though it has pulled Ukraine to pieces, but it was the cost of
that all. Consequently, the U.S. will do its best not to mend the rift between
Russia and the EU. European Union in alliance with Russia is too serious a
challenge to the U.S. Washington will never allow a second China to emerge.

 

What are
the potential consequences of this confrontation for the post-Soviet area?

 

The global
West-Russia confrontation may result in even deeper borders between spheres of
interest, blocs and worlds. Borders are gradually turning into frontlines. One
example is Ukraine's plan to build a 'wall' on its border with Russia or the de
facto closure of the border between Georgia, from one side, and South Ossetia
and Abkhazia from the other. And this tendency will continue. The post-Soviet
area tends will be structured according to the principle "who is not with
us is against us" - quite a dangerous tendency that may lead to new - at
best local – wars.  The current
activities of Russia's western "partners" may result in a new iron
curtain and growing authoritarianism in "outlaw" states. On the other
hand, there will be growing impunity in the
countries that are currently acting as Brussels' and Washington's satellites as
they will start behaving according to the principle once formulated by
Roosevelt: "Somoza may be a son-of-a-bitch, but he's our
son-of-a-bitch."

 

 The
relations of Russia and Turkey have attained a new quality recently, which,
however, cannot be called economic amid the Russia-West confrontation. What are
the prospects of these relations for the parties? What consequences may it have
for Armenia and Azerbaijan?

 

Turkey is
famous for its ability to maneuver between centers of force, to get what it
wants and to give little in exchange.
Just remember how the Turks made use of the illusions cherished by Lenin and
the Bolsheviks. Now too they may get from the Russians much more than the
Russians may get from them. Turkey's key advantage today is that it will be
able to maneuver between Russia and the West and to get preferences from both.
So, it is not a surprise that the old idea of Turkey's EU membership has
suddenly come back to life.  Armenia is
not among Turkey's priorities. Of course, you better have good relations with
neighbors but you may well have no relations at all. The key reason Turkey
prefers Azerbaijan is not so much the Turkic sentiments as the fact that the
Azeris have energy resources. And it was this very factor that once helped them
to torpedo the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement. Turkey will continue developing
special relations, strengthening ties with Georgia and ignoring Armenia, and
this situation will not change even if Turkish- Russian relations are improved.

 

It is
widely rumored that Moscow hinted Ilham Aliyev that Western security services
are preparing a state coup in Azerbaijan. Do you think it’s true? Why are they
so uncomfortable with Aliyev? Does it explain the latest repression -
unprecedented even for Aliyev’s regime - against local journalists and human
rights defenders?   

 

Color
revolutions are the scariest phantoms for most of the post-Soviet countries,
and the fight against them has become their favorite
thing to do. This is true not only for Azerbaijan where nothing actually
threatens Aliyev's power. The latest large-scale repressions
were organized for warning 'so that it doesn't become a habit'. There was no threat of a state coup, particularly, 'a color
revolution,' in Azerbaijan in the given case. Meanwhile, an imaginary threat
can scare people for a long time and quite successfully.
I think, Aliyev is young enough and Azerbaijan is successful enough not to
yield to such games.  Evidently, the best
way to fight the threat of 'color revolutions' is the successful fight against
overall corruption.  It is corruption
rather than 'foreign agents' that creates conditions for such revolutions.  I believe that the West is not keen to
overthrow Aliyev so far, even if it were possible. I don't understand why they
are so uncomfortable with him, given that he is quite easy to deal with. Nevertheless,
it should be admitted that psychosis is growing in Azerbaijan. Not only I mean
the Armenophobia, but also the fear of foreigners, freedom in
all its displays, including the predominance of the security services.  What are you talking about if they do not
allow to
Azerbaijan the Russian scientists invited to their country just because of the
Armenian stamps in their passports, leaving aside the Nagorny Karabakh stamps.

 

 The year
2014 saw unprecedented upsurge of tension on the border Armenian and Karabakh
border with Azerbaijan. The peace process is being protracted as never before.
Was the recently downed Armenian helicopter part of that all?  What are your forecasts for the coming year
2015? 

 

The growing
tensions on the contact line may sooner or later grow into a war, at least,
because the conflicting parties may lose control of the situation at one point.
But for the time being this is just a reconnaissance. The parties just want to
see what they can do and how the enemy will react to what they do. Their
principle is 'you see we can shoot down helicopters and go unpunished.' But one
more reason why the tensions are growing is that the OSCE Minsk Group is facing
a crisis due to no accord among its members. On
the other hand, Armenia's accession to the Eurasian Economic Union will give it
additional military-political guarantees and this may become a restrictive
factor for Azerbaijan, who is ruled by quite a pragmatic regime. In 2015 the
situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict zone will not change unless any
external disasters occur. For the time being I see no prerequisites for this
but as you have seen this year things in the world can change very quickly.