Tuesday, June 24 2014

 

Several dozens
of young people died for the first half year of 2014 at the border in the conditions
of the “frozen” Karabakh conflict.

 

 A war
between Armenia and Azerbaijan will be disastrous for Armenia,
in case of opening the front in Nakhijevan.

One cannot
but think so looking at the future theater of military  actions, unless there is Russia's
factor.  From Nakhijevan to Yerevan there is some 70 km - distance. However, Russia's factor
will not allow that war, and much less after the August War of 2008. It became
clear then that Russia
will not allow any change in the correlation and configuration of forces in the
Karabakh conflict zone. Therefore, I think, whatever happens in Nakhijevan -
clashes, murders, wounds on the frontline - it will not change the general
situation. I am confident that Russia
does its best for Armenia
and Azerbaijan
to remain "hanged from the hook" of the Karabakh conflict. If Russian
'peacekeepers', de-facto occupational forces, were deployed in the Karabakh
conflict zone, Moscow
could say that the issue is settled. So far, in the Kremlin they think that the
current situation of no war - no peace is stable enough to leave it unchanged. Therefore,
all these skirmishes depend on the domestic situation in both Armenia and Azerbaijan.  Sometimes Armenians make provocations,
sometimes Azerbaijanis start skirmishes often before landmark events,

signing of
important contracts. All this happens not without participation of Russia, the authorities and the military in Yerevan and Baku. Generally, I am more
than convinced that the situation is stable now and neither Armenia nor Azerbaijan seek to resume the
military actions.

 

Before the elections
or signing of important contracts young people die…

 

  The death of dozens of young people at the
Armenian-Azerbaijani border is more the so-called lyrics, and the reality is in
the true economic  and political
interests of our elites at stake. The authorities have already formed a habit
to brainwash masses by
the "Karabakh danger" and to neutralize the opposition. Something
seems to be happening with the elites and
increasing their desire to neutralize. As a result, we have skirmishes,
incidents and death. They want to send a message to the community
and show that there is an external enemy, a danger that requires consolidation,
suppression and neutralizing of somebody,
etc. I don't know what is happening at present, as elites are closed in our
countries and everything concerning them is a great
secret. Processes have been developing within the elites: the processes of
distribution of resources, financial flows, positions. And any row between
ministers with participation or without participation of the president is
always accompanied by skirmishes at the border under the slogan "Karabakh
is in danger!".

 

  Armenia's defence minister offered the
OSCE MG co-chairmen to set up a commission to investigate the border incidents.
But they refused because of lack of funds

 

 When making
such a proposal to the intermediaries, Seyran Ohanyan was confident that the
intermediaries will refuse.

Everybody
have been playing their own part. Russia under the mask of  an intermediary has been playing its own part
according to its own scenario, and the OSCE MG - its own. Serzh Sargsyan has
been playing a part of a patriot of the Armenian
people and partisan of happiness of the people through Karabakh's joining Armenia. Ilham
Aliyev has been playing a part of a defender of the Fatherland and for
happiness of the Azerbaijani people through keeping Karabakh within Azerbaijan. All
of them get salary for that  and have
their own profit, privatize facilities for a song, buy real estate somewhere,
etc.However, their key business is defending of the Fatherland, that they have
been doing for 20 years.

 

What or who
can change the created situation?  

 

The
situation created in Armenia,
Azerbaijan and around the
Karabakh conflict, may first of all change Russia, Azerbaijani political
expert. If this country starts splitting as the USSR, it will not remember
Karabakh. The bad reality may change aspiration of our  societies. But if people finally understand
how long they were done up brown and used, this may change much.  However, we first of all need awakening of the
civil society, for the latter to stop playing a part of a defender of the
people and  their
interests, but a defender of the official position of the state. I am  confident that actually all these so-called non-governmental
organizations act like offices of the Foreign Ministry and various propaganda
companies. Anyway, all these people, stemming from the positions of the
radical, non-compromising and senseless demands, have been automatically
turning into the enemies of democracy and of the future of our peoples.  We have to continue such a model of the conflict
settlement which will take into account interests of  the Armenian and Azerbaijani peoples. Apart,
we will always remain non-democratic and even fascist states.  

 

In Baku
Peace and Democracy Institute has taken to take this part. But today they try to
destroy it as well as the people’s diplomacy 

 

Since
becoming effective, the "people's diplomacy" has started hindering
the general line of the authorities of Azerbaijan
and Armenia
towards freezing of the conflict, its prolongation and using like a resource
for supporting their power. This process hinders the authorities with a help of
the Karabakh conflict to keep our peoples in leash, as the people's diplomacy
has suddenly revealed that there are models 
of living together of the Armenians and Azerbaijanis. When we meet each
other, we start treating each other with a great respect, and do not even want
to kill each other. I think  that even
the fact of killing of an Armenian officer by the Azerbaijani one with axe, is
also the result of manipulation by the public conscience, whipping up hysteria
and enmity in Azerbaijan as well as Armenia,

 

May the events
in Ukraine
affect Karabakh?

 

 Russia, France
and the USA have as deep
disagreements in Karabakh as they have in Ukraine. For this reason, first, we
should forget about the cooperation of the USA,
France and Russia  in the Karabakh conflict. That is to say,
they have been cooperating in the Karabakh conflict just the same way as in the
Ukrainian conflict. That is to say, they have as deep  disagreements in Karabakh as they have in Ukraine, but
they arranged to freeze them for the time being.To be short, the strongest one
will freeze the conflict.  At the
beginning of the 90s when Azerbaijan
and the West were negotiating on the oil contracts

in Baku, the success of the
Armenians in Karabakh and the compromises of the Azerbaijani government to the
oil companies of the West were developing parallel to each other. In other
words, the worse the situation at the front line for Azerbaijan, the more it was forced
to make compromises. Just for this reason, all the countries of the West were
interested in continuation of the conflict, putting Azerbaijan down on knees. All this
finally resulted in a compromise at $30-40 billion. For all the years of
independence Armenia got $2
billion from the USA.

 

What is Russia’s profit?

 

Azerbaijan and Armenia
are hanging on the hooks of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict that were put under
their ribs by Russia
in the early 1990s. In early 1991
in my article I gave a clear picture of the situation..At
that time all of the post-Soviet republics were hanging on such hooks. Those
who were wiser got free. Armenia
and Azerbaijan
are still hooked. Georgia
tore the hooks off its body but left part of its flesh in Russia's claws. Today the Georgians
are almost free but they in the Kremlin are doing their best to muddy things up
in Javakheti and Kvemo- Kartli. In Javakheti they are not very successful as
the Armenian authorities perfectly know what a backfire they may face if they quarrel
with Georgia.
But in Kvemo-Kartli people are sheeplike enough to believe you if you tell them
that the key reason why they are unable to sell their tomatoes and cucumbers
expensive is the conflict with Russia
and that the only way-out for them is to break away from Georgia.
Likewise the Armenians in the early 1990s
were told that once Armenia
and Nagorno-Karabakh reunified, they would get happy. What they have today is a
default. The Azerbaijanis in their turn were told that the moment they broke away
from the Soviet Union, they would start living like they in Kuwait do. What
they got as a result is just a life in Azerbaijan.