Wednesday, June 11 2014

 Tension
on the Karabakh-Azerbaijani border keeps growing since the beginning of the
year. The latest ceasefire breaches in Yeraskh showed that surprises can be
expected even from the border with Nakhijevan that was relatively peaceful even
during the Karabakh war. What is the reason of the constantly growing tension
on the border and on the Nakhijevani border, particularly?

 I
have repeatedly said that in conditions of the current balance of power in the
region, Azerbaijan is unable to unleash war independently.  However, if the balance of power is broken
and in case of favorable conditions, Baku will undoubtedly try to not only
seize Artsakh, but also go far beyond it. Firing from Nakhijevan, the enemy
hints that in case of war, the military actions will go beyond the
Karabakh-Azerbaijan border.  The entire
Armenia will be involved into the military actions, including the Ararat Valley
and Yerevan. In addition, over the last months, Iran has repeatedly come out
for re-launching the communications via the territory of Nekhijevan. The given
circumstance has become a reason for Azerbaijan to prevent that extremely
favorable to Armenia process with destabilization of the situation.  Actually, as a result of another geopolitical
disturbance in the region, the interests of the Russian imperial state and the
Turkic expansionism have met again. The Russian-Turkic Eurasian project is also
the result of that coincidence of interests, like the recent activation of
Azeris on the border between Nakhijevan and Armenia.  It is not for the actions of a third power
that we have faced distress again. It is our guilt. We failed to turn the
national liberation movement launched in 1988 into a fight for establishment of
a sovereign state. We failed to create a truly independent and sovereign
country. In fact, Armenia has been colonized. That is why, it is high time to
consolidate. Our goal must be to get rid of the incumbent authorities as soon
as possible and establish our own will. Once we do it, nobody will any longer
be able to involve us in any treacherous projects. And should we have to defend
our independence and dignity with arms, we will do it. If we do this, we will
become much stronger as we will have real allies.

 Russia’s Ambassador Ivan Volynkin has recently told journalists that the
sale of TOS-1A
heavy flamethrower systems and T-90 tanks to Azerbaijan was nothing but
commerce. Won’t that commerce lead to a new war in
Karabakh amid the  frequent deadly
ceasefire breaches on the border?

 Russia
has been losing the values and development objectives, in particular, the
resource of the future at a fearful rate. And instead of ensuring its future
through the local reformation, Russia has been trying to replenish this
resource by taking it from the others. 
The typical example of such a methodology is enhancing of the Turkish
factor at the expense of Armenia so that to gain its support.  Among such steps we can also point at the
delivery of comprehensive types of armament to Azerbaijan. Via such a delivery
Moscow has been trying to simultaneously gain economical as well as
geo-political preferences. This flirt that reminds us of the known events 100
years ago, is very much dangerous not only for Armenia but for Russia as well.

The
ratio of the Russian and Turkish competitive factor, first of all the
demographic one, has changed much not in favor of Russia. And this time, Russia
will hardly digest consequences of this flirt. In such conditions the
possibility of the new war should not be ruled out. If the war starts before we
manage to overthrow this colonized regime in Armenia, we shall have a
twice-hard work. In that case, we will have nothing to do but simultaneously
neutralize the internal and external dangers. This implies the entire nation’s
involvement in a large-scale liberation war. 

 Experts are seriously concerned over the
high threat of the rapidly developing crisis in Ukraine to the
U.S.-France-Russia cooperation over Karabakh conflict as part of the OSCE MG…

 The
crisis in Ukraine is now curbing Russia's imperial ambitions in the region. I
think Russia and the West will fight for Ukraine and this fight will have a
certain impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh peace process.  I am not sure, however, if this can shatter
the Minsk Group but I assume that this may happen if Russia allows Azerbaijan
to start a new war.

 To
substantiate Armenia’s involvement into the Kremlin-initiated Eurasian
projects, the authorities of both Armenia and Russia highlight the security as
the key factor. Will Armenia’s accession to the EAU give security guarantees to
Armenia and Artsakh?

  These arguments are not only absurd, but also
‘suicidal’. The
Eurasian project is contrary to the interests of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh
and cannot ensure their security. Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh must not seek
security at the expense of their sovereignty.

  Does
Armenia need the presence of the Russian 102^nd military base in the
current geopolitical situation, when there are no foreign troops in Artsakh,
particularly, on the border with Iran, which increases rather than reduces the
security of NKR?

 In
general, the availability of the troops of another even friendly state at the
territory of any state shows the weakness of the latter. In the conditions of
the "cold war" when Armenia was a part of the Soviet empire, the
expediency of the Russian troops in Armenia was not discussed. After the USSR
split, in the conditions when the parameters and balance of forces of the
"cold war" and of the bipolar world was preserved, the availability
of the Russian troops at the territory of Armenia was more of the inert nature.
And instead of ticking over, we had to resolve a problem of the gradual way out
from the situation.

At
present Armenia faces an extremely changing situation. The world has become multi-polar,
and a new strong pro-Armenian factor has been formed in the region - Iran. As a
counter-balance to this, today Russia has been arming the enemy which intends
to destruct Armenia, and has been absorbing sovereignty of the country. Just
for this reason, the absence of foreign troops at the territory of Karabakh is
favorable for its security.

 In
such a condition, the format of our relations with Russia needs revision. They
should be built on the principles of equality and mutual respect of interests.
In particular, Russian frontier troops, as part of Russia's Federal Security
Service, should be removed without any preconditions. As for the expediency of
the 102nd Russian military base in Armenia, it should be revised from the point
of view of our own interests.

 Armenia’s
leadership blindly follows all the ‘advices’ of Moscow and Washington.  At
least, look at the Armenian-Turkish normalization and Armenia’s ‘aspirations’
for the Eurasian projects. What holds Armenia from demanding its ‘advisors’ to
take immediately measures to calm down Aliyev’s trigger-happy policy in
exchange for its services?

 The
regime acting on our behalf has no will of their own, so, we cannot expect
anything from it. What it can do is just to prolong its life for a little while
at the expense of our national interests. So, our goal must be to get rid of it
as soon as possible.