Четверг, 13 Июня 2013

Степанян Давид

Александр Крылов: От статус-кво устали не только сопредседатели, но и население Армении и Азербайджана

 Александр Крылов: От статус-кво устали не только сопредседатели, но и население Армении и Азербайджана


Военное присутствие России в Абхазии и Южной Осетии носит довольно ограниченный
характер. Меж тем, Москва периодически наращивает присутствие в Армении,
посредством оснащения 102-й базы в Гюмри новыми видами вооружений. В чем, на
Ваш взгляд, причины подобного разрыва?



Причины такого разного подхода очевидны. В Абхазии и Южной Осетии нет иранского
фактора, безопасность находящейся в сложном геополитическом положении Армении -
союзника России по ОДКБ требует надежного обеспечения. На фоне прогрессирующей
дестабилизации Большого Ближнего Востока его проблемы могут выплеснуться в
первую очередь на граничащие с ним государства Южного Кавказа, в том числе на
Армению. Такой вариант вероятен ввиду обсуждающихся сценариев силового решения
иранской ядерной проблемы путем военной интервенции либо путем разжигания в
Иране внутриполитической нестабильности и гражданской войны с целью смены
правящего режима. Возможность дестабилизации велика и в приграничной с Южным
Кавказом восточной Турции: причиной тому в ближайшие годы может стать то или
иное решение курдской проблемы и возможность перекройки имеющихся границ. Если
Турции не удастся выйти из нынешнего политического кризиса - это еще больше
осложнит ситуацию. И, наконец, влияние Карабахского конфликта: в условиях
сохраняющейся напряженности особенно важно обеспечить надежную противоракетную
и противовоздушную оборону Армении. Очевидно, что в Абхазии и Южной Осетии
подобного масштаба угроз пока нет, и их безопасность можно гарантировать более
ограниченными средствами.  


 В последнее время
резко возросло количество мнений о необходимости слома статус-кво вокруг
нагорно-карабахского конфликта, звучащих из уст представителей всех 3
стран-сопредседателей Минской группы. Не является ли это тенденцией
предопределяющей исход мирного процесса, и какими прогнозами Вы могли бы
поделиться в этом направлении?


От статус-кво явно устали все: не только сопредседатели, но и население Армении
и Азербайджана. Это не значит, что сопредседатели перейдут к таким радикальным
методам воздействия на стороны конфликта, как это имело место в Косово, и
продиктуют свое решение проблемы теми средствами, которые были задействованы в
Сербии. Продолжится нынешняя "подковерная дипломатия", перспективы
прямого иностранного вмешательства в зону конфликта пока не прослеживается. На
нынешнем этапе это противоречит интересам различных внешних сил, к тому же эти
интересы, очевидно, противоречат друг другу.  В такой ситуации найти
подходящий для всех по своему составу  миротворческий контингент весьма
сложно, ввод же в зону Карабахского конфликта с согласия сторон конфликта или
без него войск НАТО, России или других влиятельных держав не представляется
возможным, по крайней мере в ближайшей исторической перспективе. Для Армении и
Азербайджана нынешний статус-кво, при всех его недостатках, является более
предпочтительным, чем вариант прямого вмешательства в ситуацию внешних сил. В
этом случае обе страны превратятся в заложника политики внешних сил, которые
будут руководствоваться в первую очередь собственными интересами. Примеры
государств Большого Ближнего Востока, Северной Африки и Сербии, где проблемы
решались путем внешнего военного вмешательства, свидетельствуют о том, что
такой вариант не столько решает старые проблемы, сколько создает новые. В этой
ситуации наилучшим решением проблемы был бы компромисс между Арменией и
Азербайджаном. Пока этого компромисса не достигнуто - в зоне Карабахского
конфликта лучше сохранять нынешний статус-кво. 


 Можно ли предполагать,
что после смены президента Ирана по итогам президентских выборов 14 июня с
Ахмадинежада, к примеру, на Саида Джалили, исчезнет напряжение в отношениях
между Тегераном и Баку? Или же причины этой напряженности имеют более глубинные
факторы?



Причины не в личностях тех или иных руководителей, а в той политике, которую
они проводят. Вряд ли выборы в Иране коренным образом изменят политику Ирана по
отношению к США, Израилю, по ядерной программе и т.п. Напряженность в
азербайджано-иранских отношениях вызвано активной поддержкой Баку создаваемой
антииранской коалиции, в рамках этой политики активно разыгрывается карта
"Южного Азербайджана". Иранская ядерная проблема существует, но для
всего региона попытка ее силового решения чревато опасностью больших
потрясений. В такой ситуации рассчитывать на скорую нормализацию отношений
между Азербайджаном и Ираном не приходится. 


 Не стихающая
внутренняя нестабильность в Турции уже вынудила AKP предложить обществу
провести референдум по вопросу сноса пара Гези. Означает ли это согласие
Эрдогана на отказ от политики исламизации страны. Чем нестабильность в Турции
может угрожать региону, и каков, на Ваш взгляд, наиболее вероятный сценарий
дальнейшего развития событий?



Это не отказ от прежней политики Эрдогана. Вряд ли ее можно жестко
характеризовать только как политику исламизации или "ползучей"
исламизации. По крайней мере, по сравнению с многими столицами Евросоюза
Стамбул и Анкара продолжают выглядеть светскими и куда менее исламизированными
городами. Политика Эрдогана принесла Турции большие успехи в плане
социально-экономического развития, у него много сторонников. Но в стране много
и противников его курса, начиная от сторонников радикального ислама и
заканчивая сторонниками радикального выбора в пользу нынешней западной
 демократии, культуры и образа жизни во всех его зачастую экзотических
проявлениях. Эрдоган как бы в центре, поэтому он получает сейчас удары со всех
сторон, вдобавок проблемы в отношениях с армией, недовольство политикой
вмешательства в дела Сирии и т.п. Но пока ему благоприятствует то, что внешние
силы (США, Аль-Каида и т.п.) в ситуацию активно не вмешиваются и противоборство
продолжает сохранять внутритурецкий характер. Это повышает шансы Эрдогана
сохранить власть, его маневры с референдумом по проблеме парка Гези, диалога с
различными оппозиционными силами и т.п. могут быть эффективными в плане снижения
напряженности и перевода противоборства с оппозицией в русло диалога. Пока
такой вариант развития событий представляется более вероятным, чем свержение
нынешнего правительства и торжество оппозиционных сил, либо очередной выход на
политическую арену турецкой армии. Но все может измениться под влиянием
внешнего фактора. В случае же прогрессирующей дестабилизации в Турции ситуация
на Большом Ближнем Востоке станет еще более сложной и чреватой большими
потрясениями.

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Over 10 years, 495 children were adopted by foreign citizens from 6  orphanages in Armenia, and only 116 by local citizensOver 10 years, 495 children were adopted by foreign citizens from 6  orphanages in Armenia, and only 116 by local citizens
By creating a counterbalance to the 102nd base, Turkey will claim for ousting Russia from the South CaucasusBy creating a counterbalance to the 102nd base, Turkey will claim for ousting Russia from the South Caucasus
First skyscraper to be built in Yerevan
Supporters of the second president of Armenia demand from the  Ombudsman to declare Kocharyan a political prisoner and protect his  rightsSupporters of the second president of Armenia demand from the  Ombudsman to declare Kocharyan a political prisoner and protect his  rights
View from Baku: Pashinyan actually invited Azerbaijan to recognize  the accession of Karabakh with a View from Baku: Pashinyan actually invited Azerbaijan to recognize  the accession of Karabakh with a "corridor" to Armenia in exchange  for other territories
Yerevan responds to Baku`s statementYerevan responds to Baku`s statement
Official Baku categorically rejects Pashinyan`s statement that  Karabakh is part of ArmeniaOfficial Baku categorically rejects Pashinyan`s statement that  Karabakh is part of Armenia
Hovhannes Igityan: Robert Kocharyan has never been a political  leader. Even being the president of Artsakh and ArmeniaHovhannes Igityan: Robert Kocharyan has never been a political  leader. Even being the president of Artsakh and Armenia
French Embassy provides support in 3D modeling of Armenia`s  historical and religious sites French Embassy provides support in 3D modeling of Armenia`s  historical and religious sites 
Edmon Marukyan: We are doing everything to ensure that there is more  America in ArmeniaEdmon Marukyan: We are doing everything to ensure that there is more  America in Armenia
Nikol Pashinyan told why there is no progress in the Karabakh  settlementNikol Pashinyan told why there is no progress in the Karabakh  settlement
NKR Foreign Minister: Future President of Artsakh should not be  associated with money and weaponsNKR Foreign Minister: Future President of Artsakh should not be  associated with money and weapons
Ardshinbank Increases the Number of Branches Operating on SaturdaysArdshinbank Increases the Number of Branches Operating on Saturdays
29 PACE MPs appealed to RA authorities to ensure rights and freedoms  of LGBT community29 PACE MPs appealed to RA authorities to ensure rights and freedoms  of LGBT community
Head of Migration Service of Armenia: One of the main tasks of our   service is the integration of refugees into the life of the countryHead of Migration Service of Armenia: One of the main tasks of our service is the integration of refugees into the life of the country
Hayastan All-Armenian Fund for 27 years invested $ 370 million in the   development of ArmeniaHayastan All-Armenian Fund for 27 years invested $ 370 million in the development of Armenia