Friday, October 25 2013

 October 27 presidential election in Georgia will change little. Georgian Dream Party will, probably, win. United National Movement and Nino Burjanadze's party will come the second and the third. Koba Turmanidze, Director of the Caucasus Research Resources Center (CRRC-Tbilisi) made such forecasts in an online interview with ArmInfo. 

"The upcoming election is special for Georgia, at least, because of two factors. First, Georgian Dream has no exclusive access to funds and media outlets. Second, the political programs and ideologies matter more than personality. These two factors are much more important than the fight for the second place. Actually, the fight is going on for the second place rather than for the victory, because the candidate of the Georgian Dream Party will sure take the first place. However, he may win in a second round," the expert said. 

He said the given factor may change the balance between the political forces in Georgia after upcoming resignation of Bidzina Ivanishvili. If the prime minister leaves politics this year as he promised to do, Georgian Dream will face difficulties with keeping the coalition and stability in the country, Turmanidze said. According to the results of public opinion polls, United National Movement has nearly no chances for victory, while the nationals can claim the second place.  At the same time, he said, Nino Burjanadze's election program calls for snap elections and she will strive for that irrespective of the outcome of the presidential election.  

"I think that in this case, her second place is less probable. She will be using the total number of the votes in her favor, especially those of Tbilisi voters. If her votes are enough to turn her threats of street protest into reality, Burjanadze will be more consistent in her demands for snap elections," the Georgian expert said. 
Joint online press conference of experts from various countries for Armenian, Azerbaijani and Georgian mass media on the relevant problems are organized within the project "Expansion of knowledge of Armenians and Azerbaijanis about each other and confidence building through first-hand information". The project of the "Region" Research Center (Armenia) and Peace and Democracy Institute (Azerbaijan) is supported by the British Embassies in Armenia and Azerbaijan.