Thursday, February 16 2023 11:32

ArmInfo. Sergey Markedonov, Leading Researcher of the Euro-Atlantic Security Center, Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO), has commented on  Armenian FM Ararat Mirzoyan's visit to Turkey. 

Prior to and following the talks between the Armenian FM and his  Turkish counterpart Mevlut Cavusoglu on February 15, the mass media  made numerous optimistic comments. Mr Toivo Klaar, EU Special  Representative for the South Caucasus and the crisis in Georgia, even  called the Armenian FM's visit to Ankara "historic." 

"However, the talks are over and we have not heard anything except  for routine statements on the 'desire' for full reopening of the land  border and establishment of diplomatic relations. Is it wishful  thinking again or should the bilateral relations be improved  step-by-step, without artificial acceleration of the process? 

"Ararat Mirzoyan's visit was radically different from his visit to  Turkey last year. A devastating earthquake has occurred in that  country - an event combining a human tragedy, social calamity and  socio-political challenges. Under the circumstances, Yerevan has not  remained silent - humanitarian cargoes and rescuers were sent to the  neighboring country. On arriving in Ankara, Mr Mirzoyan offered  condolences to the Turkish authorities and people. Then he met with  the Armenian rescue team working in the earthquake-hit Adiyaman.  Ankara welcomed Yerevan's overtures," he said.  

No doubt, the emotional and psychological background is an important  precondition for successful negotiations, reaching mutually  beneficial compromise. However, it is not the only decisive factor in  politics. 

"Armenia and Turkey are neighbors. Rapprochement is not a luxury for  them. Rather, it is a most important condition for security and  development. At present, the two nations have no diplomatic  relations, but they have actually closed borders and long-standing  tradition of mutual hostility," Mr Markedonov said. 

"News reports and numerous comments by experts mention 'the first  wave' of normalization that started in 2008 with the so-called  'football diplomacy'. But is it not quite so. The very first sets  with this 'gymnastic apparatus' took place immediately after the USSR  disintegration. In June 1992, Armenia's first president Levon  Ter-Petrosyan held a meeting with the then president of Turkey  Suleyman Demirel. The end of the 'Cold War' and of ideological  confrontation between the West and the East seemed to be a chance for  Yerevan and Ankara. However, further problems replaced previous ones.  And along the tragic chapters of the first quarter of the 20th  century, Armenia and Turkey turned into opposing parties due to the  hostilities in Nagorno-Karabakh. The 'second wave' of normalization -  2008 to early 2010 - was largely an attempt to separate the  Armenian-Turkish agenda from the Armenian-Azerbaijani one. In vain!  Nor would it have succeeded - Turkey has a 3-miiliong-strong  Azerbaijani population. Among them are both voters and active  citizens - not only a serious geopolitical factor, but also a  domestic political one," Mr Markedonov said. 

The year 2021 saw the "third wave" of normalization, which has lasted  until now. In this context, Mr Markedonov spoke of the fundamental  differences between the previous third and the previous two "waves." 

"The first wave occurred when Turkey (the Republic of Turkey, not the  Ottoman empire) was reassuming its role in the geopolitical games in  the Caucasus - with caution and groping its way. The second wave was  the period of Nagorno-Karabakh's previous status quo (1994-2020),  when Armenia was able to at least set some terms.  At present,  however, Turkey has 'secured a foothold' in the Caucasus. Moreover,  after Armenia's catastrophic defeat in the second Karabakh war,  Turkey has reserved the right to dictate the rules of the game. And  no illusions. Any humane gestures (only because we are humans) by  Armenia will not break Turkey's 'spirit of bayonet'. Ankara will not  stop supporting Baku nor will it stop linking normalization of its  relations with Armenia to the Armenia-Azerbaijani peace process. All  the issues will remain on Turkey's 'geopolitical menu'," Mr   Markedonov said.