ArmInfo. A "no-win" outcome in the Ukraine war will substantially strengthen the rear of Recep Erdogan and Ilham Aliyev in the South Caucasus, including in their relations with the West, Hovsep Khurshudyan, Head of the Free Citizen NGO, said in an interview with ArmInfo.
"In this case, Ankara and Baku will be able to oppose the West's pressure - not demanding settlement of conflicts based on international law, respecting human rights, exercising corruption control and so on. And once the West demands that they do it, Erdogan and Aliyev will immediately resort to energy blackmail and threats of a geopolitical U-turn in Russia's favor. In this respect, Armenia and Artsakh should not at all place their hopes on a 'no-win' outcome in the Ukraine war," he said.
On the other hand, Mr Khurshudyan does not dare predict a 'no-win' outcome in the Ukraine war. Rather, Russia would give up the idea of establishing control over Ukraine after suffering defeat there. Without suffering a crushing defeat, Russia will, nonetheless, leave Ukraine in the course of time. And the current trends are evidence thereof, Mr Khurshudyan said.
As regards the Russian army's successful advance in Ukraine, it is the result of mobilization ensuring overwhelming numerical superiority for Moscow. However, it is a temporary trend, primarily due to the geopolitical reality - even if Russia invaded entire Ukraine, it will not hold its ground.
"It is neither good nor bad. It is geopolitical reality. Russia can occupy entire Ukraine, but will not be able to have it permanently occupied. In any case, it will be short-lived victory. As to a 'no-win' outcome, the very same Azerbaijan's inevitably drawing closer to Russia will be accompanied by processes like that in Parukh. Moscow will have to pay for Baku's loyalty - at the Armenian side's expense. I think Yerevan is perfectly aware of all such prospects. I think the West's growing interest in our region affords us opportunities we should by no means miss," Mr Khurshudyan said.