Tuesday, February 15 2022 14:47

ArmInfo. Joining of Armenia to the Union State of Russia and Belarus without the rest of the countries of the South Caucasus seems to be a senseless undertaking.  Gela Vasadze, Director of Regional Programs at the Georgian Strategic  Analysis Center (GSAC), expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"Such joining in theory, of course, is possible without Georgia, but  at least with Azerbaijan. And, in my opinion, the issue of Armenia  and Azerbaijan joining the Union State will arise in parallel with  Baku's coming to Moscow's zone of influence. As for Armenia, the  level of cooperation with the Russian Federation is quite high  without it. In this light, the issue of Armenia's membership in the  Union State cannot be on Yerevan's agenda simply because it is not on  Moscow's agenda," he noted.

According to the analyst, today Russia does not at all seek to see  Armenia in the Union State with Belarus because of the senselessness  of its creation exclusively as part of three countries. "It's the way  it is today.  We do not know what will happen tomorrow. "In this  light, Moscow really needs Ukraine, or at least part of it, as well  as Kazakhstan, to form a truly union state," Vasadze said.

Not considering that today we are talking about establishing an  edited version of the Soviet Union, the Georgian analyst  simultaneously stressed that ten years ago no one could have imagined  that Putin would put forward an ultimatum to NATO demanding to remove  troops from Poland or annex Crimea to the Russian Federation. In this  light, he believes that the geopolitical situation is changing quite  quickly, which, however, does not at all exclude a sharp increase in  the perimeter of the integration swing of the Russian Federation in  the foreseeable future.

"We should also remember the interest of the EU in the region, its  current role in solving problems between Yerevan and Baku, as well as  about the role of Turkey, especially in the context of negotiations  on the normalization of relations with Armenia. The influence of the  Russian Federation in Armenia is truly enormous, however, no one  knows what will happen in a few years with Russia itself. And it is  quite possible that after Putin, Moscow will completely abandon the  "union" ideas. Similarly, it is not known what will happen to Turkey  after Erdogan, as well as to the various flanks of the EU, which is  rather heterogeneous in its essence, "analyst noted.

As a whole, Vasadze assesses the current situation around Ukraine as  completely unpredictable. First of all, in light of the fact that the  parties to the conflict are deliberately aggravating it by increasing  their bets, while the scenario of a big war is not beneficial to  anyone. And the actions and plans of Moscow in Ukraine also depend on  the development of the situation, that is, they are situational in  nature.