ArmInfo. Further regional transformations will not come as a surprise, and will not be spontaneous either for Russia or for Armenia. A similar opinion was expressed to ArmInfo by Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the Russia in Global Affairs magazine, Chairman of the Presidium of the Council for Foreign and Defense Policy of the Russian Federation.
"The current status quo around Nagorno-Karabakh is fixed, at least for the next 4.5 years, and, despite some destructive processes, it is observed. I am convinced that in the coming years the situation in the region will be under control. Yes, the South Caucasus, of course, has changed. The balance of power between Armenia and Azerbaijan has changed, and Turkey has become a more active regional player, "the analyst noted.
The analyst evaluates the recent visit of the head of Russian diplomacy Sergei Lavrov to Armenia as another evidence of the intensification of contacts between Moscow and Yerevan following the results of last year's autumn war in Karabakh. It is an evidence of the security problems, other problems of Armenia, in which the partner and ally Russia can and does help it. In this light, he stressed that this level of relations has traditionally been maintained, despite the political changes both in Armenia and in Russia itself.
Returning to the regional strengthening of Turkey as a military-political force, Lukyanov noted that, by and large, the autumn war and its results only strengthened Moscow's position in the dialogue with Ankara. In this light, he stated the transition of Russian-Turkish relations in the South Caucasus to the military- political field- the field in which the main cards are in the hands of Moscow.
In general, the analyst characterizes the current situation around the settlement of the Karabakh conflict as rather strange and formed in the absence of the other co-chairing countries of the OSCE Minsk Group. According to Lukyanov, the United States and France are making efforts today to withdraw the settlement process from a trilateral format with the participation of Russia, Armenia and Azerbaijan. Taking into account the fact that the issue of Artsakh's status remained the only issue outside the framework of the current process, the rest of the co-chairing countries, in his opinion, are quite logically trying to create a new negotiating agenda, which is very important for Armenia."It is clear that there is no consensus on this agenda between all three MG countries, which calls into question the very fact of the effectiveness and even the future of its activities. In this light, it turns out that it is the issue of status that determines the further fate of the Minsk Group itself. At the same time, all the points of concern for Moscow in the process are used by the West against Russia in order to return the settlement to the sphere of its own influence. Thus, today the settlement of the conflict has entered a stage at which the current state of relations between the West and Russia has a very great influence on it, "the analyst summed up.