Arminfo.info




 Wednesday, May 12 2021 14:33
David Stepanyan

Forecast: Further regional transformations will not come as a  surprise for Russia and Armenia 

Forecast: Further regional transformations will not come as a  surprise for Russia and Armenia 

ArmInfo. Further regional transformations will not come as a surprise, and will not be  spontaneous either for Russia or for Armenia. A similar opinion was  expressed to ArmInfo by Fyodor Lukyanov, editor-in-chief of the  Russia in Global Affairs magazine, Chairman of the Presidium of the  Council for Foreign and Defense Policy of the Russian Federation.

"The current status quo around Nagorno-Karabakh is fixed, at least  for the next 4.5 years, and, despite some destructive processes, it  is observed. I am convinced that in the coming years the situation in  the region will be under control. Yes, the South Caucasus, of course,  has changed. The balance of power between Armenia and Azerbaijan has  changed, and Turkey has become a more active regional player, "the  analyst noted.  

The analyst evaluates the recent visit of the head of Russian  diplomacy Sergei Lavrov to Armenia as another evidence of the  intensification of contacts between Moscow and Yerevan following the  results of last year's autumn war in Karabakh. It is an evidence of  the security problems, other problems of Armenia, in which the  partner and ally Russia can and does help it. In this light, he  stressed that this level of relations has traditionally been  maintained, despite the political changes both in Armenia and in  Russia itself.

Returning to the regional strengthening of Turkey as a  military-political force, Lukyanov noted that, by and large, the  autumn war and its results only strengthened Moscow's position in the  dialogue with Ankara. In this light, he stated the transition of  Russian-Turkish relations in the South Caucasus to the military-  political field- the field in which the main cards are in the hands  of Moscow.

In general, the analyst characterizes the current situation around  the settlement of the Karabakh conflict as rather strange and formed  in the absence of the other co-chairing countries of the OSCE Minsk  Group.  According to Lukyanov, the United States and France are  making efforts today to withdraw the settlement process from a  trilateral format with the participation of Russia, Armenia and  Azerbaijan. Taking into account the fact that the issue of Artsakh's  status remained the only issue outside the framework of the current  process, the rest of the co-chairing countries, in his opinion, are  quite logically trying to create a new negotiating agenda, which is  very important for Armenia."It is clear that there is no consensus on this agenda between all  three MG countries, which calls into question the very fact of the  effectiveness and even the future of its activities. In this light,  it turns out that it is the issue of status that determines the  further fate of the Minsk Group itself. At the same time, all the  points of concern for Moscow in the process are used by the West  against Russia in order to return the settlement to the sphere of its  own influence. Thus, today the settlement of the conflict has entered  a stage at which the current state of relations between the West and  Russia has a very great influence on it, "the analyst summed up. 


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