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 Monday, April 5 2021 12:51
David Stepanyan

Forecast: US recognition of the Armenian Genocide will not change  Armenian-Turkish relations 

Forecast: US recognition of the Armenian Genocide will not change  Armenian-Turkish relations 

ArmInfo.The recognition by the United States of the fact of the Armenian Genocide in Ottoman Turkey will not change anything in the Armenian-Turkish relations. Alexander  Skakov, head of the Caucasus and Central Asia working group at the  Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences,  expressed his opinion to ArmInfo.

"Today, the trends in favor of such a recognition of the fact of the  genocide by US President Joe Biden on April 24 are really visible.   Judging by the mood in Washington, the current level and content of  Turkish-American and Russian-American relations, such recognition can  take place. At the same time, I am convinced that Yerevan and  Washington are not actively working in this direction today.   Accordingly, if recognized, it will be determined solely by the  American agenda and interests, " he is convinced.

In this light, the Russian expert is inclined to expect recognition  of the genocide at the level of the US president in order to point  Turkey to its place. In Skakov's view, this would be consistent with  the Biden administration's behavioral line. First of all, because of  Ankara's too independent and bold regional policy, and in cooperation  with Russia. In this context, Skakov also stressed the problems  created by Turkey in the East for the United States.

When he was a Senator, Joe Biden officially declared his support for  the 106th resolution of the House of Representatives on the Armenian  Genocide. The resolution proposes to oblige the US President to use  the definition of "genocide" every year in his address on April 24.   Biden also supported the adoption of resolutions on the Armenian  Genocide in 2019 by the US House of Representatives and the US  Senate, promising to recognize the Armenian Genocide if he is elected  president. The Russian expert considers the unification of many  congressmen, both from the Republican and Democratic Parties, around  this agenda to be an important incentive in the direction of  recognition. This exceptional phenomenon, coupled with the  congressmen's letter to Biden, in Skakov's opinion, gives this  prospect additional chances, up to the decisive factor.

At the same time, the recognition of the Armenian Genocide by the  United States, according to his forecasts, in general, will be a  symbolic step that will only further complicate relations between  Washington and Ankara. Especially given the extremely painful way in  which Ankara considers this problem. And, of course, Turkey's hopes  for overcoming this historical problem. In this light, by recognizing  the genocide, the United States will demonstrate to Turkey its own  ability to influence and interfere in the events in the region.

"This will change practically nothing in the Armenian-Turkish agenda  and in the relations. First of all, in the light of the mood in the  region that is already changing after the next Karabakh war. First of  all, due to the fact that the current state, especially the prospects  of relations between Armenia and Turkey today are determined by  completely different circumstances. First of all, they are  interrelated with the Karabakh issue, " the Russian expert  concluded.

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