ArmInfo.Armenia is moving step by step towards economic, social and financial collapse. Mikayel Melkumyan, deputy of the RA National Assembly from the Prosperous Armenia opposition faction, stated this at a March 4 briefing.
He noted that today many do not pay serious attention to this issue, since it is a much more important problem - ensuring the security of the state. But one of the components of security is economic security. When changing power, efforts will be required to get out of this situation.
In fact, the deputy continued, according to the results of 2020 and January 2021, there is a double-digit decline in economic activity in the country. And if in 2020, according to approximate data, it was -7.5%, and if we add to it the lost 4.5% of growth, then the result is a figure of about 12% of the decline in GDP. And if only in March - May last year the country lost about $ 40 million in GDP daily, today this figure is $ 5- $ 7 million daily, since everyone is in a state of expectation. "There is a political crisis, there is a total crisis, as a result of which business programs are practically not implemented. People are waiting for what will happen. Even with the announcement of the date of early elections, businessmen will not make serious investments until the end of these elections and the formation of the government. are observed all over the world, "the oppositionist said. He recalled that Armenia's GDP is about $ 12 billion, and if you calculate the losses for December 2020, January and February 2021, it will turn out that the country has already lost 10% of its GDP. And when GDP falls, commercial banks begin to assess their risks. The central bank and commercial banks have solid analytical capabilities. It is not difficult to notice, the MP continued, that in 2020 the volume of consumer loans issued in Armenia has sharply decreased compared to 2018 and 2017. Today, the total loan portfolio is approximately $ 8 billion, of which $ 2 billion are consumer loans. A decrease in the volume of consumer loans indicates a decrease in the income of citizens, which leads to an increase in the level of poverty. Currently, the country's commercial banks are looking for creditworthy citizens. And if this situation continues for several more months, it will be very difficult to get out of it. He stated that the country is sliding into an abyss, as a result of which people become poorer, the dram has depreciated against the dollar by almost 10%, wages are not growing, and prices, on the contrary, are increasing. The oppositionist added that even before the COVID-19 epidemic and in the pre-war period, the volume of foreign direct investment decreased by three or even four times. And if it were not for the attracted Eurobonds of $ 750 million, there would be a problem with payments over the next 3-4 months of salaries, pensions and benefits. But what will happen next is not known, it is only known that the country's national debt has grown from 62% to 72%.
As a result, the economic revolution declared by the authorities became a failed phenomenon. Mikael Melkumyan stated that one of the the reasons for this phenomenon is the collapse of the public administration system. For months, government officials do not give a go to investment programs, whether it is about building permits, examinations, changing the status of land, etc. "The current model of the public administration system practically doesn't work. Even the issue of creating a" single window "for business does not get its permission. As a result, everything hangs in the air. Moreover, if one or another official begins to seriously deal with the issue, the authorities see it as his interest and initiate criminal proceedings to identify corruption risks, " - the deputy noted, adding that this model destroys the foundations of statehood, and against this background, one should hardly expect serious investments. There is a crisis that must be resolved, the way out of which may be early parliamentary elections, but with the definition of the forms and methods of their holding, on which it is necessary to conduct discussions.
It should be noted that according to the data of the Statistical Committee of the Republic of Armenia, economic activity in Armenia in January 2021 compared to January 2020 decreased by 7.5%, but only in January of this year. decreased by 47%, against last year's annual growth of 8.9% and a decline of 47.8% in January. On an annualized basis (January 2021 to January 2020), the largest decline was observed in the trade sector - 15.1%, followed by industry - 10.8%, the service sector - 10.3%, and the construction sector kept on growing. - 0.8% and the energy complex - 2.2%. The data for the agricultural sector has not been published. A year earlier (January 2020 to January 2019), all spheres showed growth: the energy complex - 18.7%, industry - 13.4%, the service sector - 13.2%, the trade sector - 10.3%, the construction sector - 7.7 %.