ArmInfo. It is necessary to realize that it is Turkey that stands behind the violation by Azerbaijan of all the three attempts of the failed humanitarian truce. Karen Veranyan, an expert of the Orbeli center, expressed this opinion to ArmInfo.
"In this light, even if Aliyev under international pressure has an intention to embark on the path of implementing a humanitarian truce, Erdogan simply will not allow him. Erdogan's tone in relation to France and the United States leaves no room for his dialogue with the United States, France and even with Russia, "he stressed.
According to the expert, it is the Turkish President who consistently fails any initiative coming from the OSCE Minsk Group co-chairs. The goal of such a policy is Erdogan's intention to change the MG format at any cost. And in this game of realizing Turkish goals, Aliyev is assigned only the role of a Turkish instrument.
In this light, Veranyan sees two options for appeasing Azerbaijan, nudged by Turkey. The first is the success of the Armenian army in destroying the equipment and human resources of the advancing Azerbaijani army. Successful implementation of the tactics of exhaustion of the Azerbaijani army, which is not ready for a long campaign. According to his estimates, arms supplies to Azerbaijan are not endless. And the protracted, accompanied by a stream of new victims, the Artsakh campaign, according to his forecasts, is fraught with a civilian revolt for Aliyev.
The expert considers the recognition of the independence of Artsakh by the leading international players to be the second option to curb the tandem's adventurism. This scenario, according to his forecasts, is quite realistic like the first one. Especially if all this is accompanied by significant sanctions against Turkey, which is already in a socio-economic crisis. However, according to his forecasts, it is too early to expect the immediate implementation of the international scenario of preventing the Turkish-Azerbaijani aggression against Artsakh and Armenia.