Monday, October 19 2020 12:03

ArmInfo. Only the new order proposed by Moscow can become the basis of its new policy and create a new political reality in which Russia will remain in the South  Caucasus. Political scientist Hayk Balanyan expressed this opinion to  ArmInfo.

"This order, of course, should suit the West, Iran, the Arab world  and, of course, Armenia. Today it can already be stated that the  previous approach of Russia has led it to confrontation with Turkey,  to the West's self-elimination to pit Turkey against Russia, to the  destruction of the CSTO as institute, to the loss of Azerbaijan and  the threat of loss of Armenia. So Moscow will still have to choose,  "he said.

According to Balanyan's estimates, Ankara initially quite clearly  calculated the position and steps of Moscow. Accordingly, after  calculating each own response step. It is the understanding of the  Turks of Moscow's inability to understand the changed realities of  the region, its obsession with old, long-inactive schemes that allows  Erdogan to always be one step ahead of Putin.

In this light, there was no gamble on the part of Erdogan in  unleashing a war in Artsakh. There was only, based on a clear  calculation, confidence in waiting for Russia in the first days of  the war for the appeal of Armenia, in the proposal of "peacekeeping",  in the policy "both ours and yours." And also an attempt to bring the  parties to the conflict to the depletion of the parties in the  absence of understanding that it will not be possible to deplete  Turkey.

"This is exactly what happened, except for the unparalleled heroism  of the Armenian army, which has been holding the Azerbaijani-Turkish  strike for more than three weeks. And today we see that after Ankara  finally explained to Moscow what was the matter, Russia, very slowly,  but still However, Ankara is responding to every step of Moscow by  raising rates. In this light, even a slow increase in the level of  confrontation may at some point give Baku and Ankara a start to  escalate the situation on the Nakhchivan border, "he said.

In this light, the increase in aid to Armenia in the absence of a  sharp increase in the military presence of Russia in Armenia,  according to the political scientist's forecasts, will become for  Baku and Ankara only an excuse to increase the degree of escalation,  and not a deterrent. Accordingly, according to Balanyan, a major war  or defeat for Russia can be avoided only by immediately strengthening  the grouping of the RF Armed Forces in Armenia in order to strengthen  control of all borders of Armenia. The latter will untie the hands of  Armenia in Artsakh. And to do all this, in his opinion, it is  necessary even not today, but yesterday. Because if you do it  tomorrow, it turns out that Erdogan is again one step ahead.