Arminfo.info



 Monday, July 6 2020 10:34
David Stepanyan

Forecast: Good relations between Turkey and Russia may worsen at any  time

Forecast: Good relations between Turkey and Russia may worsen at any  time

ArmInfo. The union of Russia,  Turkey and Iran does not have a strategic future. What we are  observing today in the context of the situation in Syria is more  likely a tactical alliance, Director of the Institute of Oriental  Studies of the National Academy of Sciences of Armenia Ruben  Safrastyan expressed a similar opinion to ArmInfo.

"In other words, the interest in cooperation is determined solely by  the tactical interests of Moscow, Tehran and Ankara. Their strategic  interests do not coincide. In the tactical plan, they take steps  dictated exclusively by short-term interests for solving specific  problems. I think that this also applies to the future of Syria.  Russia, unlike Turkey, seeks to maintain territorial integrity,  preserving Syria as a strong state.  Iran, in turn, is interested in  Syria independent of the USA. But Tehran's main objective in Syria is  access to the Mediterranean Sea through its territory, "he stressed.

The academician emphasized that Turkey is in unprecedented situation,  which found itself involved not only in the Syrian conflict, but also  in the conflicts in Iraq and Libya, not to mention the long-standing  conflict with Cyprus. Moreover, the Turkish military are in Qatar and  Africa, they are fighting a war with the Kurds inside Turkey itself.  According to his assessments, this state of affairs clearly does not  speak of the success of Ankara's policy, given that as a result of  such activity, its possibilities are at the limit.

The Turkologist assesses such an aggressive policy of Ankara as very  dangerous and adventurous, including for Turkey itself. Such  maneuvers, in his opinion, may result in the involvement of Turkey in  a serious military conflict, for example, in Libya. Safrastyan  determines these trends by the unpredictability and adventurism of  Turkish President Erdogan. Such a situation, according to his  forecasts, cannot last long. Especially given its continued isolation  by the West. This weakens Turkey, and good, but devoid of strategic  components, relations with Russia, according to his estimates, may  worsen at any moment.

"As for the United States, unlike Congress, the Trump administration  has a rather big interest in Turkey. In light of this, the US  president periodically has to make minor concessions to Erdogan in  order to keep him on the leash. Similarly, NATO builds relations with  Turkey. Such condescension by US and NATO in relation to Turkey, of  course, is dictated by the latter's geopolitical and geographical  position. Which, however, does not cancel the leading to the abyss  contradictions between Ankara and its allies in the West, "Safrastyan  concluded.

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