Arminfo.info



 Thursday, May 17 2018 12:23
David Stepanyan

Smbat Nasibyan: "Civil Contract" needs new social contract with Armenian people  

Smbat Nasibyan: "Civil Contract" needs new social contract with Armenian people  

The founder of "Converse Bank", former member of the Council of the Central Bank of Armenia, economist Smbat Nasibyan in his interview with ArmInfo discusses the shades of the Armenian "velvet revolution". He scientifically substantiates the prerequisites, logic and the process of power change in Armenia. He shares his own vision of further events and the construction of a new Armenian statehood. He talks about the inadmissibility and actual impossibility of projecting the Armenian scenario on Russia and other countries of the post-Soviet space. 

 

The change of power in Armenia has no shortage of either names or characteristics, especially those having  veryfew common things  with reality. Nevertheless, what happened in Armenia, in your opinion? 

The famous philosopher Francis Fukuyama once, in my opinion, brilliantly compared modern society with a steam boiler, and power with an engine. According to his estimates, in small countries and, accordingly, societies, steam boilers (in this case, being the expectations from the authorities) are also small and the engines in the person of power are able to pull them forward. However, in the case of revolutions and a sharp change in public discourse, the expectations of these conventional "boilers" from engines also increase sharply. In such cases, the situation is crowned with either an engine change or an explosion. The classic example of a change of engine is England with all elements of a constitutional monarchy, an example of an explosion is France with its Great French Revolution. It seems that in the case of Armenia, before the "velvet revolution" we had to deal with the third option - the so-called. a monstrous perversion. In our country, for quite a long time, the stagnant power, the same stagnant, degrading society has not been changed either. And Armenia was in a waterlogged condition, the exit from which was not visible in the foreseeable future.

 

The last election, during  which the Republicans bought everyone and everything, clearly  clearly accentuated it... 

Of course. Their outcome, coupled with the absence of a political system in Armenia, a developed civil society, experience, traditions of government, left no room for any other forecasts. And this was the belief of , perhaps, 90% of our society. Fortunately, we were all wrong and in the last two months we saw, at least, the light at the end of the tunnel. The first reason for changing the situation in Armenia seems to be the realization by our society of the impossibility of holding in our country an English and French variant of the collapse of the system of power. To meet the wishes of society and break the vicious semi-military, criminal, totally corrupt system of government that developed in Armenia after the collapse of the USSR, following the example of England, Republicans not only did not want, but could not by definition. In the absence of forward movement, this would simply lead to their self-destruction. During the last 10 years of Serzh Sargsyan's rule, the authorities were stamping on the spot, only consuming their privileged position. The result - 300 thousand emigrants from Armenia, think about it - the population is 2-2,5 Artsakh, with the prospect of losing several years of the most Armenian statehood. However, the last couple of years in our country there has been an increase in the society's self-awareness, expressed in a sharp increase in demands for power. The zakostenevshy power on these requirements did not answer, after which the boiler, unable to withstand the demands of society, simply burst and a "velvet revolution" occurred. In my opinion, first of all, it became possible due to the awakening in Armenia of the collective instinct of self-defense or self-preservation. We all just realized that this can not continue any longer, realizing the existential nature of the threats in their attitude. 

 

In other words, for the awakening of this dozing and ripening instinct in us, only a spark was needed. And this spark was the movement "Take a step, reject Serzh" ...

Certainly. The society has realized that there is no alternative to getting rid of power, which has failed everything that can be done both in domestic and foreign policy. We just realized that we have reached the bottom and realized that this bottom can still be broken and finally lose everything down to statehood. There was not even any economic growth of 7.5% in 2017, this "growth" was the result of consumption, which can be very easily proved. Based on my research and calculations, I can say that in reality there were no new tendencies, institutional reforms in our economy.

 

After 1991, over the legitimacy of all parliaments and presidents of Armenia was a fat question mark. Proceeding from all the recent actions of Nikol Pashinyan, it seems that the new Armenian government in no way wants to repeat the vicious path of its predecessors. What is the new political culture of Armenia to you and how can it be translated into reality? 

In an article published yet in  2016, I formulated the essence of the problem by pointing out that the legitimacy of any power lies not only in the legal, but also in the moral and psychological category. And the right to any power, of any scale, even in the thieves' world, is formed not only in the legal, but also in the moral plane. At the heart of my conclusions lie a variety of theories, from the time of Pythagoras to the philosophy of Hobbes. In other words, any person or group of people is given power either by birth, which are  monarchs, or as a result of a social contract. The latter presupposes the existence in power of an implicit contract with the society, which gives it the right to rule the country. The previous authorities of Armenia, like Russia, in my opinion, had such social contracts with the people. In any case, one can come to such a conclusion by projecting a fundamental philosophy of the application of social contracts to the internal political situation of the last decades in our countries.

In Russia, the social contract largely corresponded to and proceeded from the civilizational features of this country. At the first stage, the Russian model presupposed the expropriation of political freedoms by the government from the people in exchange for guaranteeing economic prosperity or at least tolerable socio-economic conditions. The argument underlying this model is that the presence of political freedoms will lead to the loosening of state foundations, the recoil into the Yeltsin era and even the loss of statehood.

 

 The second stage of the social contract marked the exchange of political freedoms already for socio-economic preferences and ensuring the preservation of the integrity of the existing civilizational and political system of Russia. This became especially important after the Ukrainian Maidan, which entailed a radical reorientation of the foreign policy of Kiev, a sharp increase in the threat of NATO to Russia and, consequently, the weakening of the Crimea.

Until the April events of 2016, which led to the death of people and the loss of certain territories, the Armenian model of the social contract presupposed the expropriation of not only political, but also economic freedoms and even opportunities for economic development by the government. In return, power provided security for society. Thus, without ensuring this very security in April 2016, the Armenian authorities lost their last moral basis. And today, in my opinion, the new Armenian government, judging by everything - it will be the party "Civil Contract", needs a new social contract with the people. The benefits of models for this in global practice are sufficient. 

 

Russia already has calls to "look at Armenia," many people  want it  "like in Armenia." In your opinion, is there a threat of projection of the Armenian scenario on Russia and other post-Soviet countries?

If Serzh Sargsyan will be  the President of Russia, then in 5 years they will really have everything like in Armenia. But, since Russia is led by a man with somewhat different thinking, I think that Russians really do not need to look back at Armenia. I understand that in a number of post-Soviet countries there is concern about the possible "export" of the Armenian version of the revolution. However, in my opinion, today's leadership of the same Russia is endowed with both legal and moral legitimacy. And the tendencies of the final approach to a dead end, as it was in Armenia, are not visible in Russia. Russian society, by virtue of a number of historical and civilizational factors, is much more complicated than the Armenian one. After all, Russia, like China, has always had its own special path and it's somewhat risky for them to follow the path of other countries. That is why the citizens of Russia, starting from the instinct of self-preservation, continue to vote for the current government, vote for Putin. And many Russians believe that the assertion of political freedoms, as required, for example, Aleksei Navalny - is nothing more than a direct path to the loss of statehood. In Armenia, all these factors were not, there was no program of action, no desire to think about the country, nor the civilizational model.

 

Actually, there was no any "social contract" as well... 

At least since April 2016. Until April, we still hoped that at least some of the money squeezed out of us is going to ensure our own security. In April, it became clear that there was not even this, and we were deceived even in this matter. In Russia, however, the external threat is still the most important factor cementing society and power. And many of my Russian friends and friends say this. And this is not my opinion, this is the choice of Russians, a choice that we must respect. Armenia was at a dead end, Russia is not in a dead end.

 

In other words, we see that Russia, by virtue of all of the above-listed other ways, does not exist today. What are the features of this path for Armenia?

 

We rejected the old and now we have to evaluate the possibilities of construction and start building a new, conceptually different from the old, future. In other words, the most difficult task is to build a modern state. The authorities should clearly articulate this task, since the modern state does not presuppose a group, impersonal government, which should find expression in the introduction of relevant institutions. This is a very difficult path, but it is non-alternative. In this sense, we will not become pioneers, since before our eyes the experience of other countries and numerous models of building a state. And on this road before our society there are and will periodically arise new internal and external risks. The first internal risk is, in fact, the very existence of the leadership of Armenia desire, will, knowledge for the construction of a new state. There are many other factors, but this is probably the topic of a separate conversation.

 

The impasse of the path along which the country led the former power is obvious. The authorities did not realize it, or deliberately neglected the growing public discontent? 

In Armenia, we saw in action the principle of uncertainty of Heisenberg. By projecting this principle of quantum physics to the latest internal political transformations in Armenia, we will see that the more familiar the location and speed of movement of one particle, the more unknown is the speed and location of other particlesfull. Everyone knew about the static state of our society, but no one knew what could happen as a result of this state. And the "velvet revolution" unexpected for many people became a brilliant confirmation of the possibility of applying the physical canons in social science.

 

Actually, having recognized Nikol Pashinyan's rightfulness in his statement on resignation, Serzh Sargsyan actually admitted his deep separation from reality. He also did not know what could happen.

Yes, that’s quite possible. In the end, he simply lacked the intelligence to govern the country and, accordingly, the achievement of goals by normal methods. His only goal, to put it mildly, was to retain and multiply the loot. This man stopped distinguishing the state budget from his own pocket, the interests of the state from personal interests, and kept the members of his party around him, handing out to them the shares belonging to the whole society. Such a management model could not stay afloat for long. In this light, there was no alternative other than dismantling this vicious, abnormal system, which led Armenia into a final impasse, the Armenian society no longer had. I think that the main thing today is to draw the appropriate conclusions from this and not allow such fundamental mistakes in the process of building a new modern state.

POST A COMMENT
Input digits     

News
Armenian leadership deliberately leads Armenian-Russian relations to  collapse - LavrovArmenian leadership deliberately leads Armenian-Russian relations to  collapse - Lavrov
ECHR accepts complaints in cases of Armen Ashotyan and Artur  Danielyan for preliminary proceedings ECHR accepts complaints in cases of Armen Ashotyan and Artur  Danielyan for preliminary proceedings 
Freedom House ranks Artsakh Not Free after Azerbaijani occupation; it  losses 40 points at onceFreedom House ranks Artsakh Not Free after Azerbaijani occupation; it  losses 40 points at once
"Europeans for Artsakh" platform outlines Artsakh`s interests  protecting vector 
Government  allocates about AMD1.4 billion to properly organize 100th  anniversary events of Sergey Parajanov, Charles AznavourGovernment  allocates about AMD1.4 billion to properly organize 100th  anniversary events of Sergey Parajanov, Charles Aznavour
France expresses readiness to consider UFAR`s development and  expansion agenda within Academic City project France expresses readiness to consider UFAR`s development and  expansion agenda within Academic City project 
Armenia to send 30 tons of humanitarian aid to Gaza StripArmenia to send 30 tons of humanitarian aid to Gaza Strip
No No "governments in exile" for Armenia`s premier 
Armenia is turning into extremely dangerous instrument in the hands  of the West - Maria Zakharova Armenia is turning into extremely dangerous instrument in the hands  of the West - Maria Zakharova 
Former Nagorno-Karabakh president calls on France to expert pressure  on Azerbaijan Former Nagorno-Karabakh president calls on France to expert pressure  on Azerbaijan 
Housing programme for forcibly displaced people to be presented next  month - vice-premier Housing programme for forcibly displaced people to be presented next  month - vice-premier 
40+10 assistance programme for forcibly displaced people to be  extended until end 2024 40+10 assistance programme for forcibly displaced people to be  extended until end 2024 
CSTO Sec Gen on Armenia`s participation in CSTO work CSTO Sec Gen on Armenia`s participation in CSTO work 
Meeting in Brussels is to focus on Armenia`s economic resilience -  U.S. Department of State Meeting in Brussels is to focus on Armenia`s economic resilience -  U.S. Department of State 
Upcoming high-level meeting in Brussels not directed against any  third party - Armenia`s foreign office  Upcoming high-level meeting in Brussels not directed against any  third party - Armenia`s foreign office  
World has experience in development of even failed states - Artak  Zakaryan World has experience in development of even failed states - Artak  Zakaryan 
Zakharova: information on Azerbaijan`s arms supplies to Ukraine is  carefully checkedZakharova: information on Azerbaijan`s arms supplies to Ukraine is  carefully checked
Russian Foreign Ministry: France`s actions are hindering  implementation of Azerbaijan-Armenia agreements Russian Foreign Ministry: France`s actions are hindering  implementation of Azerbaijan-Armenia agreements 
Russian Foreign Ministry: Anything that will benefit the people of  Armenia is only welcomedRussian Foreign Ministry: Anything that will benefit the people of  Armenia is only welcomed
Gnel Sanosyan: Upon completion of demarcation and delimitation  process, there will be no unresolved problemsGnel Sanosyan: Upon completion of demarcation and delimitation  process, there will be no unresolved problems
Statements by Alen Simonyan are carte blanche for aggression:  Opposition MPStatements by Alen Simonyan are carte blanche for aggression:  Opposition MP
Armenia does not join  CSTO PA delegations heads  statement  condemning violent terrorist attack in Crocus City HallArmenia does not join  CSTO PA delegations heads  statement  condemning violent terrorist attack in Crocus City Hall
NA Speaker: I would like to meet with a person who can prove on a map  that the four villages of Tavush belong to ArmeniaNA Speaker: I would like to meet with a person who can prove on a map  that the four villages of Tavush belong to Armenia
National Assembly Speaker: there were no political overtones in my  meeting with Svetlana TikhanovskayaNational Assembly Speaker: there were no political overtones in my  meeting with Svetlana Tikhanovskaya
Armenian PM, French parliamentarians discuss processes in South  Caucasus Armenian PM, French parliamentarians discuss processes in South  Caucasus 
Baku irritated by Pashinyan`s upcoming meeting with Blinken and Von  der LeyneBaku irritated by Pashinyan`s upcoming meeting with Blinken and Von  der Leyne
French delegation inspects security in Sotk mine French delegation inspects security in Sotk mine
Offering Armenia EU candidate status makes its pivot to West  irreversible - report Offering Armenia EU candidate status makes its pivot to West  irreversible - report 
AraratBank places its 27th issue of dollar bondsAraratBank places its 27th issue of dollar bonds
Armenian MP meet with Danish counterparts  Armenian MP meet with Danish counterparts  
Surrender of Tavush villages to destroy locals` ecosystem - expert Surrender of Tavush villages to destroy locals` ecosystem - expert 
Renowned Swiss-American lutenist to perform in Armenia  Renowned Swiss-American lutenist to perform in Armenia  
Azerbaijan uses military-political leaders of Artsakh in captivity to  achieve its propaganda goals - statementAzerbaijan uses military-political leaders of Artsakh in captivity to  achieve its propaganda goals - statement
No details of upcoming meeting between Armenia`s premier, U.S. Sec of  State, European Commission president No details of upcoming meeting between Armenia`s premier, U.S. Sec of  State, European Commission president 
People of Nagorno-Karabakh determined to return to their homeland -  Leevon KocharyanPeople of Nagorno-Karabakh determined to return to their homeland -  Leevon Kocharyan
Armenian committed to peace and stability in South Caucasus Armenian committed to peace and stability in South Caucasus 
Tatoyan Foundation, together with other human rights organizations,  publishes joint report on torture committed by Azerbaijan against  ArmeniansTatoyan Foundation, together with other human rights organizations,  publishes joint report on torture committed by Azerbaijan against  Armenians
Mirzoyan: Armenia considers Argentina as reliable partner in South  AmericaMirzoyan: Armenia considers Argentina as reliable partner in South  America
French Ambassador: The right of Artsakh people to return to their  homeland has been violatedFrench Ambassador: The right of Artsakh people to return to their  homeland has been violated
State Dept on US policy principles in relations with ArmeniaState Dept on US policy principles in relations with Armenia
Slander aimed at removing National Democratic Pole from political  arena: party responds to IC Slander aimed at removing National Democratic Pole from political  arena: party responds to IC 
Armenian diplomat to EU special rep: Aliyev regime is gearing up for  new aggression against Armenia, as he faced no consequences for last  onesArmenian diplomat to EU special rep: Aliyev regime is gearing up for  new aggression against Armenia, as he faced no consequences for last  ones
ICLaw presents cases of 8 Armenian servicemen to UN Working Group on  Enforced DisappearancesICLaw presents cases of 8 Armenian servicemen to UN Working Group on  Enforced Disappearances
Following Armenian foreign office, references to Artsakh `disappear`  from president`s websiteFollowing Armenian foreign office, references to Artsakh `disappear`  from president`s website
Sati Spivakova and the Moscow Theater of Nations soon in YerevanSati Spivakova and the Moscow Theater of Nations soon in Yerevan
CSTO Secretary General calls for creation of tools to counter  terrorismCSTO Secretary General calls for creation of tools to counter  terrorism
No discussions yet held on the issue of Armenia`s new Constitution -  minister No discussions yet held on the issue of Armenia`s new Constitution -  minister 
Establishment of lasting peace and stability in South Caucasus  Armenia`s top priority - Nikol Pashinyan Establishment of lasting peace and stability in South Caucasus  Armenia`s top priority - Nikol Pashinyan 
Azerbaijan should end the intimidation and harassment of journalists  and civil society activists - Dunja MijatovicAzerbaijan should end the intimidation and harassment of journalists  and civil society activists - Dunja Mijatovic
Armenia`s minister of justice on reforms in judicial system Armenia`s minister of justice on reforms in judicial system 
Armenian expert on Azerbaijan`s policy of misappropriation of  Armenian heritage Armenian expert on Azerbaijan`s policy of misappropriation of  Armenian heritage 
Incident with ex-minister of defense followed by numerous dismissals  - minister Incident with ex-minister of defense followed by numerous dismissals  - minister 
Russia is going through a rather difficult period in relations with  friendly, fraternal Armenia - Russian presidential spokesman Russia is going through a rather difficult period in relations with  friendly, fraternal Armenia - Russian presidential spokesman 
Azerbaijan creates artificial grounds for military aggression against  Armenia - Arman Tatoyan Azerbaijan creates artificial grounds for military aggression against  Armenia - Arman Tatoyan 
Armenian FM takes part in presentation of book Armenian FM takes part in presentation of book "Armenian Buenos  Aires" 
Threats against Armenia in Azerbaijani media channels unacceptable -  Toivo KlaarThreats against Armenia in Azerbaijani media channels unacceptable -  Toivo Klaar
Opposition MP: Threatening people with war is not the mission of  country`s leaderOpposition MP: Threatening people with war is not the mission of  country`s leader
Roundtable on geopolitical developments in South Caucasus held at  Belgian SenateRoundtable on geopolitical developments in South Caucasus held at  Belgian Senate
Andranik Tevanyan: Political struggle is the only guarantee of  success, a chance not to turn real Armenia into historical oneAndranik Tevanyan: Political struggle is the only guarantee of  success, a chance not to turn real Armenia into historical one
Vahagn Khachaturyan Vahagn Khachaturyan "closes" book of condolences at Russian Embassy  in Yerevan
Read more



Commented