Thursday, April 28 2016 06:42

"Nearly three weeks have passed since a cease-fire put an end to the largest escalation of hostilities that Nagorno-Karabakh has seen in more than 20 years. Though the fighting between the forces of Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh has tapered off, the political ramifications of the conflict have not. Low-level clashes between Armenia and Azerbaijan persist amid a flurry of diplomatic activity by larger powers such as Russia, Turkey and the West. And though talks can be expected to gain renewed momentum in the wake of the recent flare-up, a broader settlement on the status of Azerbaijan's separatist region will remain elusive," says the analysts of Stratfor, a Texas-based global intelligence company, in the latest article entitled "In Nagorno-Karabakh, politicking ramps up as fighting draws down."

According to Stratfor, the string of visits illustrates the geopolitical complexity of the Caucasus. "The relationships of external actors there influence not only the governments that rule the region, but also the people who live there. In Armenia, for example, hundreds of protesters took to the streets of Yerevan on 13 April to protest Russia's weapons sales to Azerbaijan."

From a political perspective, the Stratfor writes, Azerbaijan has successfully tested the conflict's status quo by temporarily increasing tension while avoiding a larger war. "This strategy serves Baku's broader strategic interests by attracting the attention of major regional players, raising the prospects of reaching a negotiated settlement on the conflict in the process," the analysts say highlighting that the media was flooded with articles on "Lavrov's initiatives" as the attention of foreign actors is really focused on Karabakh. 
"It is not clear that Russia wants to change the status quo in the disputed region either. Instead, Moscow may be more interested in perpetuating a managed conflict, neither frozen nor hot, in which Russia plays the role of primary arbiter between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Such a scenario would strengthen Moscow's influence in both countries," Stratfor writes. 

The Intelligence Company forecasts that in the coming weeks, the level of diplomatic activity on the Nagorno-Karabakh issue will continue to be higher than usual as regional actors exert pressure on Armenia and Azerbaijan to hold peace talks. "But a broader or even partial settlement to the dispute is unlikely to emerge in the near or medium term; there are simply too many complicating factors and parties with an interest in blocking a deal. As a result, military escalation will continue to be a possibility in Nagorno- Karabakh, with effects that reach far beyond the bounds of the small contested territory," the authors of the article write.