Friday, September 26 2014

 You have
repeatedly voiced the need for rethinking, analyzing and revising the existing
security system. Have your approaches changed following the upsurge in tensions
in the NK conflict zone in July-August?

 

There is no political approach to the security system
assessment in Armenia. At least, there are no discussion on the given issue.

Meanwhile, there is need to find the answer to the
question about how our security is being built and how it could be built. This
topic has gained additional urgency amid Russia's unprecedented and targeted change
in the power balance in favor of Azerbaijan. This process has, indeed, aroused
indignation among pro-Russian politicians in Armenia. Meanwhile, others saw the
bare approaches, assessments and analyses of the security problems, as these
approaches failed to explain the situation we have found ourselves in. Many
more questions originated after the August incidents on the border when
Azerbaijani army suffered heavy casualties. For Armenian politicians it was
absolutely unexplainable.

  What
about Azerbaijanis?

 After the August incidents, in Azerbaijan, the
apologetics of Aliyev's policy collapsed. All this happened amid Moscow's
growing attempts to even more disturb the power balance between Armenia and
Azerbaijan. These two trends showed the poor level of competence of politicians
in both countries and proved that the security structure in the Caucasus is
very different from the one they describe. 
Afterwards, many political scientists began distorting the meaning of
all these facts to present their wrong vision of the security system.  Hence, revision of all the existing security
approaches is imperative.  

Why do Armenia and Russia have such system of
relations in the security field? Can another system or model of cooperation be
successful? Should we cry out that 'Russians have sold Armenia and God damn
them" like many square-minded people in our country do?  There is no such category as "to
sell" in politics. The politics is built on the balance of interests and
the forces ensuring these interests, which is expressed in specific positions
and relations. Therefore, now when Russia has disturbed this balance, it is
necessary to track the existing model of relations to find out whether Russia
still guarantees the security of Armenia. 
Depending on the answer to this question, we should start building the
Armenian-Russian relations.  This is the
only way to think rationally and arrive at a particular conclusion.
Unfortunately, no one in Armenia does it.

 What our
security system is being built on today?

  It is obvious that Armenia's security system is built
on Russia's actions in the region. Moscow has been delivering weapons to
Azerbaijan for a long period of time, at the same time, keeping the balance by
weapon delivery to Armenia. The world has changed at present, and there are
problems between Russia and the West, and Russia has shifted to a more
guaranteed system through breaking the balance of forces. By starting enslaving
Azerbaijan with a help of weapon, at the same time, Moscow has strengthened  the lever of pressure upon Armenia, as
keeping Yerevan within the Russian orbit is possible only if a 100% threat over
Yerevan is created. Then it gained Yerevan's accord for the Russian servicemen
to play the master in Armenia as they want.

However, taking into consideration the fact that the
102nd Russian military base does not own even the 10th part of armament sold by
Russia to Azerbaijan, this base is of no military significance in keeping the
balance, but is of the political significance. Sarkisyan is confident that the
102nd Russian military base is a pole that determines Russia's presence in
Armenia, a way of subjecting and depriving Armenia of freedom of actions. The
availability of the 102nd base in Armenia hinders Armenia’s  cooperation with NATO and Iran. Therefore,
Yerevan's partnership programs with NATO are only within the frames of
cooperation in the UN international security system in conflict zones.  And partnership with NATO has nothing in
common with Armenia's security system.

 Pro-Russian
forces in Armenia explain the presence of the 102^nd military base as
defense against Turkey…

 Turkey was just told that it couldn’t intrude Armenia,
at least, unless Russia permits. That is to say, thanks to the base, today not
Armenia but Russia has a right to settle such serious issues.  If there was not the base, other relations
that guarantee security will immediately appear. And as soon as they appear,
the problem of Armenia's security guarantee will disappear. And Turkey will
think for many times before daring to interfere Armenia. And becoming an
obstacle to formation of such new relations is the key task of the 102nd
Russian military base. 

 Different
relations did not hold Turkey from occupying the northern part of the Greek
Cyprus…

 The situation
around Northern Cyprus in 1974 differs vastly from the present situation. After
Azerbaijan suffered defeat in the Karabakh warm we had an opportunity to build
a system of different relations in the region. However, we
eventually invited Russian servicemen to Armenia and preferred to retain the
previous relations. But Russians were not let into Karabakh and the security
system in Karabakh has been different for 20 years. In August that security
system once again demonstrated its efficiency to Aliyev.  Were it not for the Russian military base in
Armenia, we would have an absolutely different, stable system of relations,
because the decision would be made in Yerevan, not in Moscow.

 What
will be Moscow’s steps in case Armenia decides to revise the relations in the
security field?

 Even a suggestion to revise the conditions of the
Russian base's presence in Armenia will create very serious problems for
Russia. The myth of Russia's importance for Armenia is based on the formula
"We will defend you".  Russia
says, "Yes, we have sold T-90 tanks and MIG-29 fighters to Azerbaijan, but
don't be afraid, we will defend you.

Russians were offered to give those weapons to Armenia
so that the latter could defend itself, but Russians refused to do that,
because the mechanism should keep working. Putin said in Gyumri, "We will
maintain the best traditions of our presence in the Caucasus". One of
those "best traditions" is to form the specified system. That
tradition has existed for 300 years. If Russia is not deprived of that
tradition, it will continue using it for its own benefit and to our prejudice,
because according to that tradition Armenia will always have to ask Russia for
help and defense", he said.

 For 300 years Russia has been persuading Armenians
that the interests of the Russian Empire are similar to those of Armenian
people. And if suddenly Armenia offers Russia to build a new, different system
of relations, including withdrawal of the 102nd military base, the problems
with Turks will be solved jointly with Russia, but by Armenia. The matter only
concerns application of a more reasonable system of relations rather than
making Russia an enemy. Karabakh's example is the best confirmation of
expediency of such a system. Karabakh does not meet the Russian "tradition",
it is unprecedented for that tradition and it proves to be a more efficient
mechanism. Many in Russia suffer from that instead of valuing Karabakh.

 Yes, but
such mechanism will not help Armenia access the EEU, for instance…

 The idea that Armenia must join Eurasian Economic
Union is simply ridiculous. It is the same as if the United States tried to
force Israel to join the EU or NATO. Russia is still using the old philosophy
that if you are an ally you must belong to the same camp. That's why the
Russians force their partners to choose: you are either with us or with NATO.

It was very much important that just Serzh Sargsyan
attended NATO summit stemming from the current situation.  But the Russians do not know what to reply
and deceive themselves saying that is nonsense. 

 Please,
a little bit more about it…

 It seems to Russia that it can do with Armenia
whatever it wants, but Russia has what to lose in case of breaking relations
with Armenia. By running over Armenia, Russia will lose the machineries that
preserve its own security. Today Azerbaijan is a hostile country that has
claims to Russia. And the current security system including Armenia and Iran,
suppresses this enemy of Russia. And it is impossible to play with this system,
which can be supported only by myths. As soon as Russia does something wrong in
this system, it will be forced to deal with other actors.

 With
Iran, for instance…

Yes, with Iran. Actually, today this country is a
factor, the stabilizing role of which has not been seriously revised.
Meanwhile, Iran's stabilizing potential in the region is bigger than that of
NATO's. And every potential country which may destabilize the situation in the region, first of all, looks back at
Teheran. Russia set up criminal groups in this country, with a help of which
destabilizes the situation there, as other actors will never let
intrusion.  Today's world policy is built
on the basis of balance of interests and balance of forces, as just balance
allows processes to develop in a controlled and mutually linked way. For this
reason, when NATO offers Armenia to come to have a talk, it calmly goes and has
a talk. It was very much important that just Serzh Sargsyan attended NATO
summit stemming from the current situation. 
But the Russians Dugins do not know what to reply and deceive themselves
saying that is nonsense.

 Does it
mean that in Armenia they realize the situation?

 Over the past 20 years life has taught a lot to the
authorities. However, if Armenia could make a correct political analysis, the
authorities would not apply to Moscow at every given opportunity. It is quite
possible not to apply to Moscow if we know our real price and independent
strength being formed within the frames of the objective balance of interests
of forces.

 Thousands of people died in Ukraine, ceasefire was
violated for several days in Karabakh and various centers made condemning
statements. Karabakh would seemingly have remained unnoticed against the
background of Ukraine, but it was not to be. However, given that we have no
assessment of our own, we believe various Dugins.  Azerbaijan can buy military hardware as much
as it wishes, but it will not change the situation. In August Aliyev raised
planes and helicopters but failed to use that only chance to change the
situation in his own favor. Aliyev saw the need to use heavy armament but
realized that he could not breach the existing security system. He understood
that the strategy of killing Armenian soldiers by snipers and through sabotage
attacks contained numerous risks though that strategy seemed to him absolutely
correct for many years. That strategy resulted in the retreat and almost loss
of the Azerbaijani army. The real potentials of the Armenian and Azeri armed
forces proved incomparable. This was demonstrated by life, by August, not by
the "balance" maintained by Russia".