Friday, December 20 2013

What can you say
about the outgoing year 2013?   

 

First and foremost, I associate the outgoing year 2013 with the
totally rigged presidential elections, which have prompted another surge of
disappointment in the Armenian society and speeded up the migration. People
feel their inability to change something in their own country and decide to
leave Armenia, which is quite logical. Therefore, in Jan-Oct 2013 a total of
247,000 people left Armenia. 2013 was also a year of an unprecedented level of
poverty, which was another reason of high migration. The Government is
constantly increasing the tax burden without creating jobs. This results in
migration.  The video cameras registering
traffic rule violations, the red lines in the streets of Yerevan, the
compulsory pension reform, as well as the additional duties for the luck to
have a biometric passport, for instance, also spark public outrage. The
Armenian authorities' key "achievement" in 2013 was that Armenia
ceased being a factor in its own foreign policy and finally lost its status of
a player. The sudden intention to join the Customs Union, the reluctance to
initial the Association Agreement with the EU, and the unclear policy of
Armenian-Turkish normalization lacked any signs of a concept. All these
decisions were based on anything but the political will. As a result, Armenia
lost the confidence of the West, Russia and Iran.  This happened amid the lack of vote of public
confidence in the people who proclaimed themselves as authorities.

 

So, you say that the authorities enjoy
confidence neither inside nor outside Armenia. Nevertheless, the crackdown
policy against the population is still going on. Do the authorities assess the
situation in the wrong way?  

 

The Armenian authorities are well aware that Europe will not give
money to Armenia any more. As for the Russians and Iranians, they do not trust
in the Armenian authorities. So, having no expectation from financial inflow
from outside, the regime is trying to compensate it inside the country, as it
has no other way for keeping the power and delivering pensions and salary. They
cannot take oligarchs from "shadow" to the tax field, as an
elementary economic expediency requires. They cannot create favorable
conditions for business. Neither can they create jobs. They do not think about
it. For this reason, the authorities of Armenia have no other way to preserve
the power than use crackdown and escalate terror.  Meanwhile, if the Armenian authorities were a
little bit courageous, they could take Armenia out of the deadlock through
resigning. I am confident that in that case all the foreign problems of Armenia
with the EU, Russia and Turkey would find themselves in time-out at least for a
year, the time needed for acclimatization of the new power which the people
trust in. 

 

You say that Armenia hasn’t got a single
ally. In the meantime, Serzh Sargsyan’s consent to participate in Eurasian
integration seems to have provided him with one ally at least…  

 

I don’t
think so. It is Russians who suffered most due to the
lack of confidence in Armenia's authorities. Throughout his presidency Serzh
Sargsyan was constantly playing hide-and-seek between the West and the East and
the years of Armenia's participation in Eastern Partnership were not
coordinated with Russia, our strategic partner. If the Customs Union membership
were our initiative based on the real interests of Armenia, it would become an
excellent example of cooperation with Russia. However, the Armenian authorities
have chosen the Customs Union only because they have no alternative. They have
become vulnerable because of the mistakes they made in the past. I think Serzh
Sargsyan does not even express his opinion in the negotiations with Putin.
Consequently, one cannot speak of the benefits Armenia will get from its
accession to the Customs Union. As regards the "gas debts" of the
country, the Armenian authorities have not paid the full price of the consumed
gas for three years and promised Russia to pay the difference with the state
property or with the state budget funds, whereas not a single Armenian dram was
budgeted for those purposes. Armenia failed to pay 80 AMD to Gazprom for each
1,000 cu m of gas over the past few years. 
Now Tigran Sargsyan has given Russia the remaining 20% of ArmRusgasprom
and it is not clear yet what else he is going to give them in the future. This
is why Moscow quite fairly fails to consider Yerevan as its equal partner. In
this context, one should certainly emphasize that the price boost in Armenia
occurred mostly following the presidential election.

 

Before
visiting Armenia, Vladimir Putin announced creation
of a joint air defense system with participation of Russia, Armenia, Belarus
and Kazakhstan. Russia is strengthening the 102nd military base and intends to
take Erebouni airport on lease. The impression is that our allies are strengthening
not Armenia but their presence in Armenia. How much does this meet Armenia’s
interests?

 

I believe
the answer is the same lack of Russia's confidence in
Armenian authorities, who are making unpredictable and illogical steps.
Therefore, Moscow simply has to put a straitjacket on Yerevan, which has become
politically irresponsible due to Serzh Sargsyan's efforts.  As for me, I think such policy of the Kremlin
is unacceptable, because we are consistently losing our sovereignty and our own
foreign policy. However, it is senseless to blame others for this state of
affairs. Our authorities are to blame. We must adjust our interests to the
interests of Russia. The 102nd military base appeared in Armenia in the early
1990s on the initiative and in the best interests of Armenia. But it also met
the Russian interests. The same cannot be said about the policy of betraying
Armenia's interests and ceding Armenia's facilities that started during Robert
Kocharyan's presidency and is still going on.

 

Can
Armenia rely on Moscow even more in the Karabakh peace process after the Sept 3
statement of Serzh Sargsyan?

 

It is hard to answer the question without adjusting it to the
interests of Russia. Neither Armenia nor the NKR can benefit from the 100-year
maintenance of the status quo. I believe that the status quo undermines the
statehood. In the meantime, I cannot say what interests Moscow will have in the
Karabakh peace process within the next few years. I am convinced that the
Karabakh problem should be settled because it hinders the development of
Armenia, Nagorno- Karabakh and Azerbaijan. 

 

Has Armenia got any
European prospects?

 

Armenia should have continued its policy to combine US assistance,
European democracy and Russian security. This policy was successfully
implemented for many years. We even managed to improve our relations with the
Arab world and to get US assistance through the territory of Turkey. A few
years ago we had lots of friends in the world but we have lost them and this is
not their fault. Regarding the choice between Russia and Europe, I believe that
the Armenian authorities might have avoided it as the Russians themselves seek
to integrate with Europe. Instead they put us before the choice of white or
black, Europe or Eurasia.