Понедельник, 28 Октября 2013

Александр Русецкий

До второго тура грузинская демократия не дошла

До второго тура грузинская демократия не дошла

Во-первых, необходимо поздравить
Республиканскую Партию Грузии, так как она сумела в итоге создать в стране
республиканскую модель управления. Центральной фигурой, исходя из этого
становиться не Премьер-министр, не Президент, а Председатель парламента. Таким
образом, Давид Усупашвили стал первым Председетелем парламента Грузии, имеющим
доминирующую власть в политической системе. Не исключено, что это повлечет за
собой ребрендинг и страна будет представлена в скором будущем - как «Республика
Грузия» («Сакартвелос Республика»).


Во-вторых, надо поздравить с победой
Михаила Саакашвили и «Национальное движение Грузии», которое, выйдя на второе
место обеспечило себе статус главной опозиционной партии и все, исходящие из
этого привелегии. Давид Бакрадзе взял 
21,9% голосов от 46% учавствующих избирателей. Высокий уровень
мобилизации данной политической группы эксперты связывают с активизацией Нино
Бурджанадзе, которая выступила с требованиями о справедливом разбирательстве
дел и о наказании, учавствующих в репресиях представителей «Национального
движения». При этом мобилизация вышла за рамки национального масштаба и
охватила те международные группы интересов, которые непосредственно
поддерживали режим Михаила Саакашвили в течении 10 лет. Как видно и их не очень
устраивает расскрытие некоторых нашумевших дел.


В- третьих, надо поздравить Гиоргия
Маргвелашвили, который стал очередным Президентом Грузии, хотя и с
ограниченными возможностями. Хотя на большее, в отличие от других,
Маргвелашвили и не претендовал. Маргвелашвили взял 62,09 % голосов, от 46%
учавствующих избирателей.


В- четвертых, надо поздравить Бидзину
Иванишвили, так как он смог сделать ещё одно, очень важное дело – с миром
отпустить Михаила Саакашвили, однако, вместе с этим, легализовал присутствие
его партии в правовом поле, согласно тем условиям коабитации, которые он
«подписал». Таким образом коабитационный процесс был изначально направлен на
дальнейшее распределение власти между двумя этими политическими группировками и
носил откровенный характер «сепаратного мира».


В- пятых, надо поздравить Нино Бурджанадзе,
которая не стала не Президентом и не главной оппозиционной силой и тем самым,
по воле народа и международного сообщества сняла с себя всю ответственность за
политические процессы, в которых ничего не смогла бы изменить даже в случае
победы над обеими джентльменами. Она смогла набрать всего 10.06% из 46%. Вместе
с тем, её отрыв от других опозиционных кандидатов определяет её политическое
лидерство во внепарламентской оппозиции и оставляет ей право рассматривать себя
как главную опозиционную силу по отношению к «коабитантам» на будущих выборах в
местное самоуправление и в Парламент Грузии.


С другой стороны, необходимо отметить, что
«Грузинская Мечта» сохранила прочные позиции в центре политического спектра,
создавая тем самым имидж политического стабилизатора между двумя полюсами – с
одной стороны «Национальное движение», имеющее открытые реваншистские
намерения, а с другой стороны – «Демократическое движение»,  ядро которых состоит из репресированных
режимом Саакашвили граждан, требующих суда как над отдельными насильниками, так
и над политической партией в целом.


Вместе с тем, надо отметить, что в выборах
не приняло участия по различным причинам 56% населения. А это означает, что
данные результаты выборов не обладают достаточным уровнем реальной
легитимности.   При этом, часть
избирателей не проголосовала по доброй своей воле (разные на то были
мотивации); часть в результате того, что не имела возможности дойти (доехать)
до своего избирательного участка (это в основном гастрабайтеры из провинции,
находящиеся в Тбилиси);  а часть в
результате массовой дискриминации их политических прав, которые ни одна из
международных организаций не зафиксирует в своих отчетах. Это прежде всего
касается населения оккупированных территорий и многочисленной грузинской
диаспоры, права которой не в достаточной степени определены в результате весьма
размытой статистики.


Таким образом, можно сказать, что в
результате выборов, в условиях ограниченной демократии сформировалась
относительно стабильная ( с тактической точки зрения) политическая система,
адекватная запросу большей части внутренних и внешних акторов. При этом, со
стратегической точки зрения, система весьма неуравновешанная и уязвимая.


Сегодня Грузия находиться перед новой
интригой – в ожидании того, кого предложить на пост Премьер-министра, уходящий
по доброй воле Бидзина Иванишвили, бизнесмен и политик, который пришёл в страну
из диаспоры, навел порядок по своему усмотрению и оставляет за собой механизмы
контроля за ситуацией.


Автор: Директор Кавказского института региональной
безопасности.

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Constructive dialog with no secret topics is the basis for strengthening relationsConstructive dialog with no secret topics is the basis for strengthening relations
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Smbat Nasibyan: Smbat Nasibyan: "Civil Contract" needs new social contract with Armenian people  
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Inessa Gabayan relieved of the post of Chairman of the Water  Management Committee of ArmeniaInessa Gabayan relieved of the post of Chairman of the Water  Management Committee of Armenia
Armenia voted against updated version of Ukrainian resolution on  CrimeaArmenia voted against updated version of Ukrainian resolution on  Crimea
UN Special Rapporteur did not see pressure on activists opposing the  exploitation of Amulsarskoye fieldUN Special Rapporteur did not see pressure on activists opposing the  exploitation of Amulsarskoye field
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Armenian President held a series of meetings with heads of large  corporations as part of his working visit to FranceArmenian President held a series of meetings with heads of large  corporations as part of his working visit to France
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NGO NGO "International Humanitarian Development" declassified organizers  of an international LGBT forum in Armenia
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Investigation Committee of Armenia identifies woman found today  under the bridge in DavidashenInvestigation Committee of Armenia identifies woman found today  under the bridge in Davidashen
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Amnesty bill promulgated: ``Sasna Tsrer`` group members will be  amnestied if victims do not objectAmnesty bill promulgated: ``Sasna Tsrer`` group members will be  amnestied if victims do not object
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Karen Nersisyan was appointed new artistic director of the Yerevan  Russian Drama Theater named after StanislavskyKaren Nersisyan was appointed new artistic director of the Yerevan  Russian Drama Theater named after Stanislavsky
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Babloyan: Today the world has lost a truly outstanding singer, and  Armenia and the entire Armenian people say goodbye to the greatest  ArmenianBabloyan: Today the world has lost a truly outstanding singer, and  Armenia and the entire Armenian people say goodbye to the greatest  Armenian
Hayastan All-Armenian Fund has a new executive directorHayastan All-Armenian Fund has a new executive director
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Zardusht Alizade: There are no physical walls between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. There are, walls built from the outside, mental and psychologicalZardusht Alizade: There are no physical walls between Armenians and Azerbaijanis. There are, walls built from the outside, mental and psychological
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Republican Party responds to Pashinyan`s statement on low turnout in  Yerevan ElectionsRepublican Party responds to Pashinyan`s statement on low turnout in  Yerevan Elections