Monday, July 13 2015 05:41

 Some both Russian and Armenian sources say the lately endorsed Russian US$200 million loan will be spent on purchase of Iskander- M systems.  Is there any strategic or tactical motivation and, which is more important, a possibility to deploy Iskander-M missile systems in the territory of Armenia?

Well, I would like to see Iskanders in Armenia and in Artsakh, but there are no such missile systems in our republics yet. Of course, Russia would be happy to sell the systems to Armenia like to any other country.  Unfortunately, we have no sufficient money to buy them. Although Armenia buys arms from Russia on preferential terms, we still cannot afford Iskander-M systems.

In this light, the US$200 million loan will not cover the purchase of that missile system and much less the auxiliary equipment. 

Iskander-M operative tactical missile systems will appear in Armenia, but in the territory of the 102nd Russian military base, as Russia keeps expanding its military presence in Armenia

 

Does Armenia need Iskander-M operative tactical missile systems to maintain the military balance of power with Azerbaijan?

Armenia and Artsakh need at least by a division of Iskanders to keep the military balance with Azerbaijan. It is as necessary as air to maintain the parity. We need Iskanders despite the fact that we have what to use to retaliate a large-scale aggression.  I am speaking about Scud  - the time-honored tactical ballistic missiles developed by the Soviet Union. They are not as good as Iskanders, but able to repel any attack of the adversary

 Do you think that the military balance of power in the Karabakh conflict zone has been shattered?

Unfortunately, the military balance of power between the parties to the Karabakh conflict is shattered. Azerbaijan has too much arms, much more than CFE treaty permits. Yet, Azerbaijan cannot use all its weapons at once, as the region is mountainous. To understand that, one does not need any special knowledge. Just look at the map of Artsakh and Azerbaijan. The border of the two countries is on hills and there is no place to use tanks and other heavy armored vehicles. Meantime, Azerbaijan's flatlands are in full view for Artsakh. Nevertheless, Azerbaijan keeps buying offensive weapons and conducting offensive drills.  Considering that there are chains of pipelines across the territory of Azerbaijan, a dozen missiles will cause incomparably more damage to Azerbaijan than a hundred of Azerbaijani missiles will do to Armenia and Artsakh.

 

There is one more factor. Azerbaijan, namely, Ilham Aliyev owns just 15%-20% of the oil pumped in Azerbaijan. The remaining belongs to BP and other foreign corporations. Military actions would endanger the multi-million investments of those corporations. Consequently, those countries will not allow Aliyev unleash a new military aggression against the Armenian and his own people.

 You have mentioned the rugged topography of the Karabakh-Azerbaijan border. However, the topography of the Azerbaijani-Armenian border is not that favorable…

That border has a status of an inter-state border.  I think if Azerbaijan decides to attack Armenia, the strategic agreement with Russia will automatically come into effect like the commitments of the CSTO allies that will help Armenia in case of emergency. Russia has all the necessary means for that in Armenia: aircrafts, missiles, manpower. The commander is sure that Russia's diplomacy will also serve its purpose with regard to both Azerbaijan and the pro-NATO Turkey.

Do you share the views of some military experts saying that Azerbaijan may have a success in the war against the Armenian republics only I case of a blitzkrieg?

 I think, they have no other scenario. In addition, Azerbaijan's leadership may force soldiers to war as it is not their war. A success of such blitzkrieg will depend on whether the Azerbaijani commanders will manage to force their soldiers to fight against the people of Artsakh that lived on their native land for centuries. It is a big question at whom the Azerbaijani soldiers will be firing at after being forced to war. Anyway, we should not disregard the possibility of a blitzkrieg. As there is no extended front for the Azerbaijani army to deploy in battle order, a blitzkrieg, if there is such, will fail in 3-4 days. The army and the people must be ready for war, not a corrupt family managing as much corrupt government.

What difference do you see in the domestic policy of Armenia and Azerbaijan?       

 

The mono-ethnicity is the main advantage Armenia has against Azerbaijan from the perspective of evaluation of the internal situations in our countries.  The main difference between the internal situation in Armenia and Azerbaijan is that Armenia does not have the main problem of Azerbaijan. Armenia is a mono-ethnic country. Death cases in our Military Forces are of random nature and they are not purposive. All the mess in our Army is conditioned by a human factor and not by a cultural and national intolerance. Moreover, they are fairly managed and gradually resolved by the Army command.

There are certain criteria, which are defining and projecting the future of one or another country.  According to his evaluations, they are successfully applied by the CIA given the recent events in Ukraine.

The case is inter-ethnic relations within one or another country.  Even before Karabakh events these were projected by the CIA. Similar forecasts were on Georgia and Ukraine as well. Such projections were and are not existing for Armenia. Therefore, it is required to differentiate the inter-ethnic enmity and domestic conflict.

Mr. Ter-Tadevosyan. What is the major threat to the national security of Armenia?

The major threat to our security is the constant efforts to blame the adversary – potential aggressor for our own mistakes. We must not seek the responsible outside the country. We must seek the centers that are breaking our country from inside. We must propagate even the smallest positive things we have and stop speaking of external threats. We must develop the near border communities and help the local residents who support our soldiers on the border. Fortunately, the parliament has finally passed a law that provides certain preference to the residents of the near border communities. We must forget about our neighbors for a while and focus on settlement of our domestic problems. This is the key prior task of our country.