Armenia's path and prospects in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) are vague. The EAEU founders themselves do not know what to anticipate and are trying to minimize the risks for their economies in every possible way, Hovhannes Igityan, expert at the European Business Association, member of the Board of the Armenian National Movement Party, told the media on Friday.
On October 10, the Agreement on Armenia's Accession to the EAEU was signed. The Agreement is expected to come into effect after being ratified by the Parliaments of Armenia, Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. To note, the period of the waivers in the 160-page document ranges from 4 to 8 years.
"I think more and more details of Armenia's accession to the EAEU will be emerging given the EAEU leaders' big efforts towards protection of their economic independence. Today Kazakhstan is signing a big trade agreement with the European Union and becoming an EAEU member with reservations implying observance of agreements with the EU. In this light, Armenia, which has a number of trade and economic agreements with Europe, raises no reservations. Meanwhile, Yerevan could have reminded Moscow of these agreements and could have told Moscow about the intention to observe them, which stems from Armenia's interests. I think Russia would not have objected to this if it wants to benefit from a union with economically developed Armenia", he said.
As regards the prospects of the re-launch of the Abkhaz railway section, Igityan stressed that notwithstanding Armenia's accession to the EAEU this prospect is still vague given the extremely political nature of the problem in the EAEU. According to him, Moscow may declare what it wishes but the fact is that the project cannot be implemented without Georgia. Tbilisi is not going to take any steps yet given its precisely opposite integration preferences. "The political discrepancies between Russia and Georgia hinder the re-launch of the Abkhaz railway section. Unfortunately, no one will do it for the sake of Armenia. Moreover, our main problem is not the transportation but the customs tariffs of the imported goods", he said.
According to the survey of International Alert NGO (UK), the potential costs of rehabilitation of the South Caucasus railways, in particular the Sochi-Sukhumi-Tbilisi-Yerevan railway will total $277.5 mln, which can pay for no earlier than in 100 years. The restoration of the 190km section Psou-Inguri will cost $251 million. The Inguri-Zugdigi section will cost $26.5 million. The section from Zugdigi to Tbilisi and farther to Yerevan needs no repair. It is noteworthy that Abkhazian experts estimate the rehabilitation of the railway at $350-$400 million. Meanwhile, Georgian experts claim that the project will cost some $73 million.