Tuesday, October 14 2014

 

Who is the playmaker in Armenia's opposition trinity?
Armenian National Congress and Heritage are radical, while Prosperous Armenia
is restrained. What do you think about this contrast?

 

The Armenian opposition keep in mind the hard social-economic
situation in their country and therefore they refrain from drastic measures.
The serious problems most of Armenians face today force some of them to
emigrate and others to wish change of government. But since Armenia is involved
in the Nagorno- Karabakh conflict, any uncontrolled process may cause some
unpredictable consequences. The leaders of the Armenian opposition are well
aware that there is a high risk of provocations during their rallies, and so,
during the Oct 10 rally they did their best to prevent any incidents. It was
important that one of them Levon Ter-Petrosyan urged the oppositionists not to
hurry and not to engage in self-activity. 
This implies that the leaders of the Armenian opposition have learned
the tragic lessons of the past and will be wiser this time. As far as
Prosperous Armenia is concerned, that force, represents most of local
businessmen, so, its policy cannot be drastic. On the other hand, the recent
protests of thousands of small and medium-sized businessmen against new
IMF-imposed taxation have encouraged lots of other people to go into the
streets. This fact could not but be ignored by the leader of Prosperous Armenia
Gagik Tsarukyan, who said that no Maidan does not mean no action at all.

 

In his speech the leader of Armenian National Congress
Levon Ter-Petrosyan was quite kind to the Eurasian Economic Union. He said that
Armenia's accession to that Union is a fait accompli, while a representative of
Prosperous Armenia added that the rally was not aimed against Russia. What can
these curtseys mean?

 

Russia wants to see Armenia as its strong and
dynamically developing ally in the South Caucasus. The Armenian opposition
knows this, that's why, it made no anti-Russian calls during its last rally.
The leader of Armenian National Congress Levon Ter- Petrosyan is a realist and
pragmatist. "He is well aware where there are real security guarantees and
where there are just illusions. And he still remembers the times when his party
split exactly because of contradicting attitudes towards Russia.  As far as Prosperous Armenia is concerned, it
has close contacts with Russia and Belarus. In his last interview to
Nezavisimaya Gazeta, the party's leader Gagik Tsarukyan made it clear that
Armenia and Russia need each other.

 

I think for the leaders of the Armenian opposition
Armenia's interests are more important than the interests of any external
player. They look to me quite responsible and committed to solve their
country's problems and this is that makes them different from oppositions in
some other post-Soviet republics.

 

The agreement on Armenia's accession to the Eurasian
Economic Union has yet to be ratified by four parliaments. Can we expect any
force majeurs in the meantime? What will be the response of the West, who is
firmly resolved to torpedo the Eurasian projects?

 

The West may take unexpected steps at the stage of
Armenia's ratification of the Agreement on Accession to the Eurasian Economic
Union. The process of coordination of the agreement was accompanied by various
rumors and "underflows". The response of the West will be predictable
(i.e. extremely negative) in terms of the content and it will not be standard
in terms of the forms and formats of countermeasures. The attractive
"alternative" proposals, which resemble sandcastles (such as an
"alternative security system" with the focus on Yerevan-Tbilisi close
partnership) and certain projects that make no difference will intersperse with
the pressure in the issues of much significance to Armenia, e.g. the Karabakh
conflict, privatization of the key infrastructure facilities, etc. There may
even be threats to impose sanctions and terminate joint projects with Western
partners in case of further promotion of the Russian-Armenian trade and
economic ties.

 

The Kremlin is constantly emphasizing and sincerely
explaining that it wants no confrontation and that the "idea of common
space from Lisbon to Vladivostok" remains on the agenda.

 

However, it is extremely hard to convince our Western
(first of all, American) partners of such things, and the hysteria or sanctions
(which started long before the developments in Ukraine) is direct evidence of
that. 

 

Unfortunately, all this will lead to new complications
in the Middle East, Central Asia and the Caucasus.