Tuesday, August 13 2013

At the upcoming Eastern Partnership Summit
in Vilnius, Armenia will apparently initial the Association Agreement with the
EU, including on the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). Political
scientists around the world following the situation around Eastern Europe have
no doubts that the EU introduced the idea of Eastern Partnership at the
suggestion of Poland amid Russia’s integration ambitions in the territories of
the post-Soviet area that were more or less controlled by it.  Possessor of one/third of the world’s energy
resources Russia is well aware that its ‘unification mission’ of a world power
should be restored, otherwise it may face decentralization of power. What will
be Armenia’s position on these processes? ArmInfo correspondent asked Hrant
Bagratyan, oppositionist MP, former prime minister of Armenia, to share his
views on the issue.

 Mr.
Bagratyan, it seems that we are approaching the very point when the country has
to determine its foreign policy orientation. 
Initialing the Agreement with the EU we will make a transitional step
towards signing that Agreement, and will, actually, no longer be able to sit on
two chairs – Russia-led Customs Union. It is quite comfortable, indeed, but our
partners in the West and North are rather critical about our position despite
their soft diplomacy. What do you think of this trend?

  As an opposition politician, I have no
specific data on the issue unlike the authorities. Consequently, I cannot say
what the authorities think and what they rely on making decisions actually
crucial for our people. I can just share by impressions and thoughts about the
political puzzles that are due to turn into a single situational picture.
Firstly, it is obvious that no one in Europe thinks that the next step for
Armenia is to join the EU.  Talking to
European officials – something I do quite often – one can see them surprised at
our concerns over Russia’s reaction. “What’s the problem? Why do you so much
care for Russia’s reaction?” they usually ask. In addition, they assure that
integration process with Russia is not less intensive and Europe is ready to
sign another association agreement also with Russia.

 Secondly, we are not sufficiently
informed of the Customs Union either. It seemed to me that I knew little about
the situation around the Customs Union unlike our authorities, but I have
arrived at a conclusion recently that our authorities do not know much either.
I suppose that they have had no serious talk on the Customs Union yet.

 

 We obtained the status of an
observed long ago and should have been ready to weight all the cons and pros…

   Well, in any country the government machine
is rewarded from the state budget that is replenished with taxes paid by
ordinary citizens. The government ought to thoroughly study such issues and
tell us what is favorable for our country and what is not. No one knows yet if
it is favorable to our country to join the Customs Union or not. I am sure,
neither the government does. It is not surprising that the Armenian Embassy in
Russia did not even hint at it at least through the Foreign Ministry.  It “goes underground” every time when there
is a concrete problem like it has happened recently when our compatriot faced a
trial in Moscow. Various public organizations, human rights defenders and
influential media outlets have commented on that tragedy, while the Embassy was
silent. I think the Embassy and the Foreign Ministry must be able to adequately
assess the problem: possible joining the Customs Union with Russia, Kazakhstan
and Belarus. Maybe, they are not able to provide the necessary and detailed
information to the country’s leadership. Moreover, I think the ruling political
quarters do not understand anything in the situation either. When this issue is
raised in the parliament, it becomes absolutely clear that the parliamentary
majority is unaware of the issue and is out of the subject. It is terrible! In
fact, we either avoid a serious talk with Moscow on the issue, or Moscow does
not invite us to talk… To be clear – Armenia has no DIALOGUE with Russia. In
the meanwhile, Armenia and Russia are in a single military bloc. I cannot
understand this, but I can say that it is not right. No matter what Armenia
will chose, the Customs Union or the European trade area.  It is important that neither Europe nor
Russia know what to expect from Armenia. 

 There is
nothing particular about the content of the Association Agreement and the free
trade area. They give some vague promises regarding visa facilitation with the
EU and wax rhapsodic about $3-4 billion aid and economic prosperity.  In short, we deal with a complete information
vacuum – something that is unusual for the European work style. Hence, many
questions arise. There is no certainty also in the issue of Nagorno Karabakh.
It is not clear if Armenia should launch real customs relations with NKR when
that country is de-facto integrated into Armenia’s economy. How this issue will
be settled after signing the Association Agreement and joining the free trade
area? The agreement contains some provision on the so-called disputable
territories. Such information was leaked by Georgian and Moldavian sources in
the context of the Abkhazian-South Ossetic and Transdniestrian problems. But,
again there is nothing particular.

 I have repeatedly said that such issues
should not be settled latently. Such choice must be made through a nation-wide
referendum only. For that purpose, the authorities must inform the public of
all the aspects of the problem. Through public dialogue, debates and plebiscite
the population will decide how the country should act in such situation. After
all, this is a fateful decision.

 In late May I was taking part in Euronest and
we were working on a definite part of the Association Agreement. Frankly
speaking, there was nothing about Nagorno Karabakh in that document. Moldovan
and Georgian representatives were present at all the session, but those issues
were not raised. I cannot speak on behalf of our neighbors and Moldova, but
when it comes to Armenia, I can state for sure, at present it is not important
for the EU if we are with or without Karabakh. This is the same approach as it
had when the country was joining the WTO. It is definitely a big plus for us.
Although, if this issue were raised to a high-ranking official from the EU, he
would say: “Don’t hurry. This is just the beginning of the path.”  What will happen next? We don’t know. Neither
the authorities do. I can just express my personal opinion about what I was
working on. For instance, the provision on energy saying that the power systems
of Europe and Armenia should operate on a single standard was quite admissible.
No one objects that. Who will this affect?

 Nevertheless, there is an impression that
in Russia they are following these processes with concern. European officials
are not indifferent either. This means that the Agreement with the EU contains
something very important, something we have no idea about. I cannot say
anything specific as like our citizens I am deprived of information. Therefore,
it would be right if all these documents and projects are published and set for
a referendum. After all, the people should decide its future despite
difficulties.

 You
are absolutely right. You cannot solve such crucial problems sitting alone in
your office. This is not a battlefield.

 And what if the government’s decision
proves to be a gross mistake or an excellent but missed opportunity? Today even
people from the ruling coalition are unaware of what is really going on in the
Cabinet.

 

One month ago our Prime Minister said that
we would move towards the Customs Union. But he did it in a rather strange
manner. In his joint interview with Khristenko, he said that Armenia was
searching for ways “to merge with this process.” What did he mean by this? I am
sorry but it seems to me that somebody is just trying to save his ass. That is,
to the Europeans they may say that they did not mean an accession to the
Customs Union, while to the Russians they will say that they did. That’s not
the way it works. Even in diplomacy there must be the moment of truth. You
cannot babble when your people and partners are expecting you to be specific.
Say it normally! Don’t make a laughing stock of you! On the one hand, they are
saying that they are “merging with the Customs Union process,” on the other,
they are planning to initial an association agreement with the EU. Who are they
trying to fool? What’s really bad here is not that the world may think badly of
our prime minister but that it may think badly of our country and people. Just
remember that last media leak about two Lithuanian diplomats talking badly
about us. It’s a shame! I am not very much worried to see some political
technologists, especially in Russia, starting badmouthing about Armenia, but
what concerns me most is that they are shaping public opinions and political
decisions in their countries. This is not some Pandora’s box. This is a real
global process.

 Perhaps,
the problem here is that Armenia is no longer a subject but just an object of
the global politics. 

 No. There still are lots of things that
depend on us. We still have a vote in international organizations and quite a
big role in the Caucasus and the Middle East. After all we still have a hand in
ensuring stability in the region.

 Yes,
you are right, but there are strong self-sufficient countries and there are
weak ones, who are not invited to negotiate serious problems. We are
vulnerable, economically feeble, political unstable, heavily dependent on
donors, credits, partners. We are very like a ping-pong ball...

 If we want to stop being one, we must start
respecting the people’s will and hopes. What do our people want after all? In
my presidential program in February I made it clear that such problems must be
solved through plebiscites. In the Czech Republic they kept mocking their
President Vaclav Havel for holding a referendum on almost each problem. But
today the Czech Republic is one of the most stable nations in Europe. Once the
Czechs voted against the Eurozone. Today they are prospering and nobody regards
them as an outlaw. For a long time Latvia was reluctant to join the zone but
today it wants to. Montenegro has joined it, but its people is not willing to
join the European Union. The same is for Norway – they are part of the Eurozone
but are not an EU member.

 But
their difference from us is that they have high political culture and real
rather than feigned electoral processes.

 We have to start this process one day, don’t we? If most of our people opt
for Europe, Russia will accept this - for you cannot go against the people’s
will. We will continue sharing a common secure area and enjoying friendly
relations. But if a majority votes for the Eurasian Union, we will tell Europe,
“thank you, we respect you, we will trade with you, we will take part in your
projects, but we will not be in association with you because our people does
not want this.”

The problem here is that our authorities are not willing to hold a
referendum. They think they are the people. But they are not. As a result, they
are facing a situation when they are afraid of taking any steps.

 But life is moving on. And what is right
will happen sooner or later. I can’t say what is right. I am just one of our
citizens – even though I have big political and administrative experience. But
what I can say for sure that a referendum will help us to make it clear to the
party we are afraid to offend that any solution is, first of all, the people’s
choice. And there will certainly be an adequate response from our partners as
they perfectly know that the people’s choice cannot be aimed against the other
party. Let’s be honest – neither Europe nor Russia have so far said anything
about denouncing any agreements with us.

 Yes,
it's not easy to wear the crown...

 There is no use wearing it. We are not
living in the times one could use it. The key to such problems today is a
referendum. This is what we need for learning how to vote, for crystallizing our
government system and for being able to solve our problems – be they local or
global.

 That’s
probably why our authorities are refusing to accept the very idea of a
referendum? Once they put a single question to a referendum, they will create a
bad precedent and may finally see the people claiming more?

 You are speaking ironically, but this is
a very serious problem, and I see nothing bad in it for either the authorities
or the people. Sometimes we are nonplused by much simpler problems. The
political activity of our people is growing. Some few years ago it was hard to
imagine that whole protest movements could be formed in Armenia against a
threat to some park or a raise in a public transport fare or a monopoly over
parking lots. So, despite the wish of some top government officials to see
politically active people leaving the country, life is going on, the old
generation is being replaced by a new one, by people who are proving that they
can be the masters of their city, their country and their own fate. And the
sooner our authorities realize this, the sooner we will come out of the
deadlocks they are putting us in.